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koala_bear

Bba Data Releasae Aug 2013

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http://www.bba.org.u...street-banking/

Capital repayment s down on July (show signs of lower moves in months ahead)

Total Gross lending down on July

Loans for home purchase down on July - (total lent, # loans and average loan value)

Loans for remortgage down on July (total lent and # loans) but average remortgaging amount up £1600 on the month retaining is stellar rate on increase this year now £152.3k from £131k in February 2013 - FLS in action

Edited by koala_bear

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average remortgaging amount up £1600 on the month retaining is stellar rate on increase this year now £152.3k from £131k in February 2013 - FLS in action

This is the sole reason I can think of for any supposed economic recovery underway now. Inflation is still eroding real pay, so people must be getting the money from somewhere if there is any growth. All that's happening is still more being squeezed from savers to further reduce mortgage payments. With rates now being artifically suppressed, this faux-recovery will be shortlived once inflation eats away the benefits of remortgaging. Gidiot's just hoping he can spin that out past 2015.

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http://www.bba.org.u...street-banking/

Capital repayment s down on July (show signs of lower moves in months ahead)

Total Gross lending down on July

Loans for home purchase down on July - (total lent, # loans and average loan value)

Loans for remortgage down on July (total lent and # loans) but average remortgaging amount up £1600 on the month retaining is stellar rate on increase this year now £152.3k from £131k in February 2013 - FLS in action

Thanks for posting, plenty to get stuck into as usual.

Even with all stops pulled out, net mortgage lending is pretty dire.

Personal loan balances are now being written at a rate roughly half of at peak activity, and outstanding balances are around half peak levels too, so it seems that these have roughly attained some sort of equilibrium for now.

Credit cards balances moving higher, although it should be noted they are only 10% above the pre-crunch peak (Mid-2005).

The cc+personal loan balance total in mid-2005 were close to £100Bn(where they remained for a couple of years) and now they are about £72Bn. The scale of post-crunch deleveraging is huge. Perhaps the growth of PCP derived car purchases is depressing opportunities for new loan growth, and banks are now dependent on credit card spending.

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Thanks for posting, plenty to get stuck into as usual.

Even with all stops pulled out, net mortgage lending is pretty dire.

Personal loan balances are now being written at a rate roughly half of at peak activity, and outstanding balances are around half peak levels too, so it seems that these have roughly attained some sort of equilibrium for now.

Credit cards balances moving higher, although it should be noted they are only 10% above the pre-crunch peak (Mid-2005).

The cc+personal loan balance total in mid-2005 were close to £100Bn(where they remained for a couple of years) and now they are about £72Bn. The scale of post-crunch deleveraging is huge. Perhaps the growth of PCP derived car purchases is depressing opportunities for new loan growth, and banks are now dependent on credit card spending.

Back in the boom times it did not matter how much unsecured debt you racked up as you could just switch to another 0% credit card and most importantly everyone dreamed that they would be millionaires from downsizing.

The reality is now declining real incomes and higher credit card interest rates. If you borrow £1k on a credit card you have a problem, back in 2005 you did not.

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Seasonally adjusted BBA approvals for house purchase rose slightly vs July:

BBAapprovals0813.gif

HMRC released data for residential property transactions this morning and volume has levelled off somewhat over the past couple of months after a fairly strong uplift over the past year.

The big unknown of course is what effect we will see from HtB2 when it's introduced.

HMRCtrans0813.gif

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/transactions.htm

The annual growth rate on BBA consumer credit has turned positive for the first time in four years, and the BBA claims that this is a sign of increasing consumer confidence.

Well, that may be so but there's also the possibility that households are using the credit card to prop up stretched finances.

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The annual growth rate on BBA consumer credit has turned positive for the first time in four years, and the BBA claims that this is a sign of increasing consumer confidence.

Well, that may be so but there's also the possibility that households are using the credit card to prop up stretched finances.

I guess you need to think about these things logically -> Have retail sales picked up with this new lending growth?

If no then people are filling the wage gap.

If yes then the new lending is helping China and corps. via imported goods.

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looks like the media housing recovery was just that...hype....come on...who got worried and spanked their lives savings on a crappy house?

The housing recovery may be a fairytale but the modest economic revival being reported is probably genuine. The two aren't mutually exclusive. The observation that economies can recover from crisis without a significant credit expansion is known as a 'phoenix' miracle. But Thomas Mayer and Michael Biggs examined the data and found that an incorrect comparison was being made between GDP flow and credit stock. All that is required for a recovery in demand is that new borrowing increases not that the total stock of credit goes up i.e. if the private sector is de-leveraging even a slowdown in the rate of that de-leveraging will boost domestic demand. Demand growth is correlated with the rate of change in credit flow not the stock of credit.

Mayer and Biggs called the change in flow of credit relative to GDP a 'credit impulse'. The BBA figs are consistent with a sizable +ve credit impulse into the UK economy with the advent of HTB1.

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