Final Warning For A Uk House Prices Boom

[The Masked Tulip]

Unfortunately I can't post any charts due to error messages, but looks to me like wave (ii) of wave 1 of wave C is completing today in early trading on the S&P and then crash wave (iii) of 1 of C gets underway. I don't know if we will crash as much in percentage terms as say 1987, but between 20% and 30% seems certain and 2011 was around 21% to 22%.

I'm looking for an intra-day crash low on Friday October 25, 2013 to be followed by a closing low (that's lower than the October closing low) on Wednesday December 4, 2013.

Unlike the FTSE which had a sharp decline and has produced a well defined lower right shoulder, similar to what US indices did after the 1929 top and 1987 top, the US indices currently have no lower right should - this is because the September top has to be considered a higher right shoulder and can be seen as such when looking at the Dow on a weekly chart using closing prices.

For most people trading, there is going to be no warning and a bounce (the lower right shoulder in US indices) that never comes. I think this has to be one of the most extreme market tops in history – more extreme than the 1987 and 1929 tops which did at least have defined lower right shoulders before the big break came. This decline could be equally extreme.

LOL - I'm actually quite an optimistic person!

Catflap - has today's US debt ceiling agreement changed your views on a potential stock market plunge this month?

[The Masked Tulip]

Nope - VIX is showing internal momentum at a level equal to the flash crash in 2010, except it's not been released yet. Handbrake on if you like. It's hard to believe how strong the US markets are, but that's because everyone is in the market - there's simply no bears, which means when it goes it's going to waterfall really quickly as everyone tries to beat the other person running for the exits.

No different human behaviour than people running for their lives when there's a fire in a building - nobody want's to be burned financially by a crash, but plenty will be and it will change the investing landscape IMO for the next 3 years and everything that is seen as risky and involving financials (stock market and housing). The only place people will feel totally safe is going to be bonds and gold which are still both in secular bull markets and have made their last big corrections before the final wave begins (gold might have a few more days down next week as gap on GLD @1180 to 1190 and cycle low due then).

Even Tom DeMark is looking for one more rally, but I can't see it. It looks to me like the crash low I'm expecting is going to be pushed out a little further into the October 28 to October 31 time frame.

It was never about the debt ceiling IMO - it's just what everyone decides to focus on, but there was no doubt that it would not be resolved. There's simply no way it was ever not going to be resolved - they are not going to be that reckless and it will always go down to the wire. The media just likes to make a big thing of it and create FEAR among people and they need stories!.

That's why I don't listen to the news - VIX simply hadn't finished correcting, but now it has at gap support and should make new highs as the internal momentum it's built-up finally comes out. Then there will be a different story to explain why the market is falling

Assume the crash position - this one is going to hurt!

Thanks. I will watch with interest. Didn't realise that you think gold will go up as stocks go down.

Edit:

Wouldn't gold and silver stocks, as well as the metals themselves, get crushed also in any waterfall of general stocks?

Edited October 17, 2013 by The Masked Tulip

[The Masked Tulip]

October 31st would be good Catflap - the Halloween Crash!?

[The Masked Tulip]

No one cares Catflap - it is just you and I. Can't wait to tell all the rest "Told you so!"

[The Masked Tulip]

S&P 500 hits all time high. 2,000 here we come!

[bubbleturbo]

No one cares Catflap - it is just you and I. Can't wait to tell all the rest "Told you so!"

I am following!

Have found catflaps forecast interesting and I guess we will see how it pans out.

If gold goes down to $1000 I will buy some.

[The Masked Tulip]

I am following!

Have found catflaps forecast interesting and I guess we will see how it pans out.

If gold goes down to $1000 I will buy some.

We're through the looking glass now. No taper and Yellen about to take over. 100 billion a month QE coming in 2014?

[bubbleturbo]

We're through the looking glass now. No taper and Yellen about to take over. 100 billion a month QE coming in 2014?

Indeed. Interesting times. I will definitely stock up on gold if it goes down as many people seem to anticipate.

However, with the debt ceiling issue seemingly now sorted so they can spend on, US credit rating downgrade today and other things it could be that gold is now at its low.

[The Masked Tulip]

Indeed. Interesting times. I will definitely stock up on gold if it goes down as many people seem to anticipate.

However, with the debt ceiling issue seemingly now sorted so they can spend on, US credit rating downgrade today and other things it could be that gold is now at its low.

Stocks and gold up today. Dollar down so is that why gold is up. Certainly, it is something to keep an eye on in the coming few days/next week. Need to work out, with all asset classes, what is going on once this post debt ceiling blip settles down.

[The Masked Tulip]

Well, stocks keep going up but volume is getting less apparently. So it is kind of like a car struggling to get up a very steep hill - it keeps managing to go up a bit further but it gets slower and slower.

A huge crash would be worth it just to see the reaction on all the pundits' faces.

[The Masked Tulip]

I suppose with the debt ceiling and the taper out of the way for now that the way ahead looks promising for stocks and perhaps leaves things open fot some kind of black swan. US credit downgrade? Hard to forecast anything that would collapse US stocks at the momejt short of war or a terrorist attack on the scale of 911.

The Chinese equivalent of Fitch just downgraded the US to A minus but no one even noticed.

[The Masked Tulip]

You might like this chart Catflap.

pl1 pointed me to this article:

U.S. And European Stocks - Which Way Will The Cookie Crumble?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1747822-u-s-and-european-stocks-which-way-will-the-cookie-crumble

[zugzwang]

I suppose with the debt ceiling and the taper out of the way for now that the way ahead looks promising for stocks and perhaps leaves things open fot some kind of black swan. US credit downgrade? Hard to forecast anything that would collapse US stocks at the momejt short of war or a terrorist attack on the scale of 911.

The Chinese equivalent of Fitch just downgraded the US to A minus but no one even noticed.

The US of A minus. I like that. Has a nice ring to it.

Not quite true about no-one noticing either. Everybody noticed, but the people who matter most keep getting truckloads of freshly minted fiat backed up to their doors every day of the week. What do they do with all that damn money? How can they dispose of their liabilities productively when they keep mounting up month after month?

It looks like there's a global recession in the offing for 2014 so it's probably not a good time to run any surplus cash into commodities or oil. There's gold and silver, of course, but the world's trapped in a debt deflation right now not a hyperinflation. Govt bonds? What if the unimaginable happens and the US actually defaults?? Which leaves stocks and houses.

Boo-yah, as Jimmy Creamer is taken to say.

[The Masked Tulip]

The US of A minus. I like that. Has a nice ring to it.

Not quite true about no-one noticing either. Everybody noticed, but the people who matter most keep getting truckloads of freshly minted fiat backed up to their doors every day of the week. What do they do with all that damn money? How can they dispose of their liabilities productively when they keep mounting up month after month?

It looks like there's a global recession in the offing for 2014 so it's probably not a good time to run any surplus cash into commodities or oil. There's gold and silver, of course, but the world's trapped in a debt deflation right now not a hyperinflation. Govt bonds? What if the unimaginable happens and the US actually defaults?? Which leaves stocks and houses.

Boo-yah, as Jimmy Creamer is taken to say.

Hoo Hah!

Well, I think we're all going to see how far they can run up the stock markets in the coming months. It is like going up the Gelmerbahn funicular!

[Steppenpig]

Maybe we can put an effigy of George Osborne on a bonfire on November 5th as his weasel plans to inflate a housing bubble go up in smoke

Can't we reenact the whole original scenario, but properly this time?

[Hush, hush, you never know who's listening, don't want to get oursleves in trouble]

[The Masked Tulip]

EAs in my area are in full gloat mode at the moment claiming loads of properties going SSTC.

I was just in one EA office and heard someone on the telephone offer 290K on a 299K house - they had just exchanged on theirs and wanted the other house. Not even just 90% of asking.

[Stainless Sam]

Wayalat been banging on for years about stealth hyperinflation. His entire philospophy is based upon the expecatation that the balloon is going to inflate rather than burst, no-one will notice it and everyone will be happy to see thier debts evaporate and their 3 bedrommed sh!tbox worth 7 figures.. He's wrong.

Worse, he's based in or around Sheffield. If he's been stocking up on property around this neck of the wood, he's got nowt to come, as we say. An illiquid asset, with completed prices not seeing much growth in South Yorkshire and volumes still unispiring. If he's bought bricks and mortar in London, he'll do okay short - medium term because there's always a bigger fool.

But I'm not going to panic out to buy something overpriced in this locale. I'll devote Sunday to fixing my energy tarriff instead.

.

[The Masked Tulip]

Wayalat been banging on for years about stealth hyperinflation. His entire philospophy is based upon the expecatation that the balloon is going to inflate rather than burst, no-one will notice it and everyone will be happy to see thier debts evaporate and their 3 bedrommed sh!tbox worth 7 figures.. He's wrong.

Worse, he's based in or around Sheffield. If he's been stocking up on property around this neck of the wood, he's got nowt to come, as we say. An illiquid asset, with completed prices not seeing much growth in South Yorkshire and volumes still unispiring. If he's bought bricks and mortar in London, he'll do okay short - medium term because there's always a bigger fool.

But I'm not going to panic out to buy something overpriced in this locale. I'll devote Sunday to fixing my energy tarriff instead.

I suspect he has a smile on his face today though.

.

[The Masked Tulip]

Can gold AND the dollar both have their corrective lows and then BOTH begin to rally?

I thought you could have one but not both - a weak dollar means higher gold and a strong dollar means lower gold?

[The Masked Tulip]

"There Will Be No Place To Hide" - Markets Are Over 50% More "Exuberant" Than In 1996

"It is really going to end badly," is the ominous warning that Damien Cleusix has issued to his clients as he believes we are now reaching the top of the secular bull market. Crucially, he sees US stock markets as "grossly over-valued" but that it is hidden from most people's perceptions because (just as in 2000 and 2007) there are marginal sectors that make the 'aggregate' seem reasonable (not to mention the dreams of forward earnings.) His novel approach of a point-in-time Price-to-Sales comp shows the median valuation its highest in 23 years.. and Alan Greenspan's infamous "exuberance" valuations in 1996 were 40% below current levels of elation. Today, the big difference with 2000 and 2007 is that government and central banks have already spend a lot of firing power to "make believe" that everything is fine again. He concludes, "there will be no place to hide when the tide turns."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-21/there-will-be-no-place-hide-markets-are-over-50-more-exuberant-1996

[The Masked Tulip]

We might get our black swan soon Catflap - two very rare oarfish have washed up on Californian beaches in recent days.

These fish come from deep, deep down and are rarely seen. One theory is that they are sensitive to stresses in changes to pressure deep below the ocean which drives them to the surface - are two rare oarfish found in as many days sign that the Californian 'big one' is about to happen?

Cue spooky music.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

We might get our black swan soon Catflap - two very rare oarfish have washed up on Californian beaches in recent days.

These fish come from deep, deep down and are rarely seen. One theory is that they are sensitive to stresses in changes to pressure deep below the ocean which drives them to the surface - are two rare oarfish found in as many days sign that the Californian 'big one' is about to happen?

Cue spooky music.

Sounds a bit....errrr....fishy to me.

Sorry, couldn't resist it.

[The Masked Tulip]

Sounds a bit....errrr....fishy to me.

Sorry, couldn't resist it.

Interestingly, it is in Japanese folklore that when they find oarfish dead on the beaches shortly afterwards they have a huge earthquake.

I doubt it got into Japanese folklore by accident and apparently they found some of these fish dead on Japanese beaches shortly before the huge 2011 quake.

Same thing happened in Chile shortly afterwards just before a quake there.

They reckon the pressures on the Earth's crust sends vast amounts of positive ions up through the water which turns the water into peroxide - which kills the fish. So they head up towards the surface or simply die.

Perhaps half of California toppling into the sea might crash the stock markets and finally put an end to expensive beach-front property.

[Democorruptcy]

The value of money should rise in deflation against assets that are leveraged to it during inflation (stocks and housing).

NYSE Margin Debt hits record all time highs

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/margin-debt-hits-new-record.html

[The Masked Tulip]

I wish I understood that graph.