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crashmonitor

Uk Manufacturing Most Confident For 18 Years

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Read a book on the Weimer crisis. Factory production boomed then as well at times.

Can't disagree with that, you need demand for inflation to take off and the MPC vigilance thing looks a bit shaky sometimes.

Edited by crashmonitor

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All tends to back up the fact that we are now experiencing quarterly GDP in excess of 1% following record numbers on the purchasing managers index, entirely consistent with ZIRP apparently...........

http://www.telegraph...-year-high.html

great; this can create the crash based on this guy:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10225647/Rate-rises-threaten-crash-in-every-asset.html

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The Weimer republic was characterized by printing paper money to repay war debts. The had external debt obligations to repay in GOLD Marks which they could not so they printed paper in an attempt to buy gold.

The west is characterized by issuing debt to pay for public services and a trade deficit which it could not otherwise afford. The collapse will be brought about once BRICS refuses to take any more debt from the west and will only take payment in hard currency issued by them.

They are currently in the process of preparing for this by buying up commodities as fast as possible.

The wests collapse will not happen overnight, but slowly - I would guess the rate of collapse will be driven by the rate the west prints at.

BRICS will slowley introduce their own commodity backed currency(or more likely currencies) or partially back the value of their existing currencies with commodities.

The turning point for inflation in the west will be as China reduces the peg on the Renminbi from the dollar. Meanwhile BRICS is using all those lovely USD to stockpile commodities.

634px-1_RMB_to_US_dollar.svg.png

Hyperinflation in the west can happen, but not until BRICS countries have backed their currencies and start dumping GBP, USD and EUR. That is the point hyperinflation will start unless the central banks stop printing.

All I can say is that we are closer to that point than 12 months ago and we are in a particular precarious position as demonstrated a couple of days back when the US rpoved that it cannot stop printing.

Rock and a hard place sprigs to mind - all it would take is a move from BRICS to start the process. It's like a long drawn out game of chess that the west are losing primarily because it is run by banks who do not care if the west goes down the pan.

Summary, move east sometime and protect your wealth.

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great; this can create the crash based on this guy:

http://www.telegraph...very-asset.html

Very true. Even gold will drop (for a while) as investors are obliged to liquidate their holdings to cover losses and meet margin calls elsewhere.

I lol'ed at this bit:

He used a summer camp metaphor to explain his approach to dealing with the problem. "We’re in a canoe race to the other side of the lake. We know all of the canoes are old and a bit leaky in the best of times, and there’s a storm coming. If we knew the storm were going to break now, we’d just stay in the cabin and laugh at everyone else as they were forced to turn around and trudge back to the cabin, sopping wet and half drowned.

"But we don’t know when the storm will break or even if it might miss us altogether, so we’ve stuck an extra guy in the middle of our boat with a bucket instead of a paddle. We know it will slow us down, but it will go a long way to help ensure we don’t sink along the way, even if we’re resigned to the likelihood of a long slow paddle in the rain, sitting in water up to our ankles."

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The west is characterized by issuing debt to pay for public services and a trade deficit which it could not otherwise afford.

You mean the UK and US. Plenty of western countries have healthy trade surpluses. e.g Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, belgium

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You mean the UK and US. Plenty of western countries have healthy trade surpluses. e.g Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, belgium

And who's buying their stuff?

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"We’re in a canoe race to the other side of the lake. We know all of the canoes are old and a bit leaky in the best of times, and there’s a storm coming. If we knew the storm were going to break now, we’d just stay in the cabin and laugh at everyone else as they were forced to turn around and trudge back to the cabin, sopping wet and half drowned.

"But we don’t know when the storm will break or even if it might miss us altogether, so we’ve stuck an extra guy in the middle of our boat with a bucket instead of a paddle. We know it will slow us down, but it will go a long way to help ensure we don’t sink along the way, even if we’re resigned to the likelihood of a long slow paddle in the rain, sitting in water up to our ankles."

It's time Osborne got over to the US and told them to quit messing about with canoes and for goodness sake pull the choke out of the MG.

Edited by billybong

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Manufacturing confidence hits 18-year high

Confidence among Britain’s manufacturers is at an 18-year high on the back of booming factory orders from both home and abroad.

....

A balance of 33pc of the 398 companies surveyed “expect to raise output” in the next three months, the highest reading for the optimism index since March 1995.

The CBI announcement.

http://

www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/2013/09/manufacturing-recovery-continues-to-strengthen-cbi-survey/

Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector is continuing to pick up, with orders at their highest level since the start of the financial crisis. That’s according to the latest CBI monthly Industrial Trends Survey.

....

....

"Since the start of the financial crisis" - no big thing then?

· Firms expect to increase output at an even faster pace in the next three months: 44% expect to raise output, 11% expect to reduce output, giving a balance of +33%, the strongest expectation since March 1995 (+34%)

So since 1995 for 18 years manufacturing expectations have been in the doldrums? Likely another 18 years as well?

Edited by billybong

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