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TheCountOfNowhere

Property Bee - What Are You Seeing

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Just look at NN1+15 miles on rightmove for the last 7 days.

Most of the listings, 95%, are flagged as initial listings by property bee.

Now, i've been looking at the northants housing market for a long time now and i've never see it like this, Normally 25%+ are re-listings and sales falling through.

It seems to me the state/banker/media/VI propaganda has convinced a lot of people the time to sell is now.

There are a few sales falling though but i'm seeing the local agents, get this, putting the prices up !!!

The listings over £500K are a some kind of a sick joke, those pensioners really want someone to fund their retirement.

There is no point in even looking at houses now. The agents are now bullish and backed by the government hand outs I can see why.

This can't last must longer, there can't be many left who is daft enough to buy.

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You might be surprised!

I would be, No one I speak to talks of buying,..everyone talks of selling, downsizing or renting.,

I did a quick search of some areas of London I am familiar with.,..it's a different story from the shires.

Lots of £1M+ properties ( that;s terraced houses to you ) and lots of sales falling through at the bottom end (that's the £400K 1 bed market ).

London is toast...everything else will follow.

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Not much coming on in my area, but asking prices are bonkers. Our house sold in 2 weeks, kept the buyers hanging on while we tried to find something, but they are now probably going to pull out (understandably). Houses over £500k (our range is 5-7) are hideously overpriced, and despite not selling, vendors are not accepting v reasonable offers. We have a new baby on the way which will make us cramped in our 3 bed (have 2 already) but we are not prepared to meet the asking prices even though we could. I'm as confident as I was in 2007 that we are on the cusp of some drops, so happy to live in a small house for a year whilst we see what happens. I am certain things won't go up, people simply don't have the cash.

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I was chatting to an EA yesterday.

He told me that he had just been round to value a house that the couple had bought in August of last year for 200K. Put in a cheapish kitchen and painted it white throughout. The EA - IMPO one of the rampers - they bought via reportedly told them to stick it back on for a few quid short of 300K. There is has stayed for the past year.

So the sellers now have the hump - both doctors apparently - and have gone to another EA. Alas, the new EA just told them that it is only worth 200K and that they were "misled" to put it on for 300K. It is now coming on with him for 250K as the sellers want to put it on for this.

Second house this week like that apparently.

Earlier he went to value a house that was on for something nuts - like 350K - in a road where the houses come on for about 235K. The same first EA firm put it on for that. Anyhow, the guy I know went round and told them that it should have been on for around 250 and anything over 215 they should bite the hand of the buyer off.

But they want 350ish now don't they. In fact, it could have been just short of 370 IIRC.

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I was chatting to an EA yesterday.

He told me that he had just been round to value a house that the couple had bought in August of last year for 200K. Put in a cheapish kitchen and painted it white throughout. The EA - IMPO one of the rampers - they bought via reportedly told them to stick it back on for a few quid short of 300K. There is has stayed for the past year.

So the sellers now have the hump - both doctors apparently - and have gone to another EA. Alas, the new EA just told them that it is only worth 200K and that they were "misled" to put it on for 300K. It is now coming on with him for 250K as the sellers want to put it on for this.

Second house this week like that apparently.

Earlier he went to value a house that was on for something nuts - like 350K - in a road where the houses come on for about 235K. The same first EA firm put it on for that. Anyhow, the guy I know went round and told them that it should have been on for around 250 and anything over 215 they should bite the hand of the buyer off.

But they want 350ish now don't they. In fact, it could have been just short of 370 IIRC.

I'm seeing a lot of this - one particular agent who seems to be believing his own ********, despite the fact that in the past two weeks at least 5 sales of his have fallen through. He appears to be very good at pushing people into offering high, only to come a cropper when the surveyor takes a look and values the place. The problem, as you say, is that the vendors then think that the next person through the door will offer the same, and somehow will be able to complete.

Mrs is still looking at houses. I have given up for now. I see with equal frequency days where we seem to be back to 2007, and days where everything is falling through or being reduced. In 6 months we will know - in the meantime I'm not wasting my time dancing to the tune of a load of over excitable estate agents.

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I would be, No one I speak to talks of buying,..everyone talks of selling, downsizing or renting.,

I did a quick search of some areas of London I am familiar with.,..it's a different story from the shires.

Lots of £1M+ properties ( that;s terraced houses to you ) and lots of sales falling through at the bottom end (that's the £400K 1 bed market ).

London is toast...everything else will follow.

Same pattern as the US? The only people buying this year have been cash-rich speculators. Priced spiked on wafer-thin volumes and are now rolling over as sellers swamp the market chasing an opportunity to get out.

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I've normally had around 25/30 houses on the market in my local area , its jumped to 85 within the last two month's, quite a few have gone stc under £200k ,which have been on for a while. Seems to be a bit of a spurt before the Christmas wind down.! Number for rent has dropped .

There seems a lot of planning application's getting the green light around the periphery of Cardiff.

Edited by Tankus

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Thought the thread would be about a property bear called Snow White.

I'm seeing signs of all kinds of trouble for owners at the mid-upper end of the market. This one been on the market since beginning of the year, reduced £100K, standing empty it looks like. If care home, bills to pay, and if inherited by younger family, you've got to pay IHT before you can even get probate to sell such a house. (Or you used to anyway, often by way of a commercial loan.)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40462859.html

Strong evidence that many owners of mid-to-upper homes have sought to sell over past few years, but after getting little interest or 'insulting offers' pulled them off market, until it 'recovers'. They instantly accept house prices can rise 10/20% a year, but it doesn't compute when it's the other way around, and their homes fall in value.

Seeing a few mid-to-upper houses that sellers have tried to sell in the past, coming coming back to market now. Latent supply. Can sense coming panic when they realise very few upsizers from this point, provided HTB2 is a failure. And loads of FTBs been taken off the market into newbuilds, with firstbuy/helptobuy1 and Shared Ownership. Can't help the trade up market.

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I was chatting to an EA yesterday.

He told me that he had just been round to value a house that the couple had bought in August of last year for 200K. Put in a cheapish kitchen and painted it white throughout. The EA - IMPO one of the rampers - they bought via reportedly told them to stick it back on for a few quid short of 300K. There is has stayed for the past year.

So the sellers now have the hump - both doctors apparently - and have gone to another EA. Alas, the new EA just told them that it is only worth 200K and that they were "misled" to put it on for 300K. It is now coming on with him for 250K as the sellers want to put it on for this.

Second house this week like that apparently.

Earlier he went to value a house that was on for something nuts - like 350K - in a road where the houses come on for about 235K. The same first EA firm put it on for that. Anyhow, the guy I know went round and told them that it should have been on for around 250 and anything over 215 they should bite the hand of the buyer off.

But they want 350ish now don't they. In fact, it could have been just short of 370 IIRC.

Are these Mumbles EAs? The thing is, as at £350k, or even £250k there's surely a limited number of buyers in Swansea. £350k is hospital consultant territory and there's not many (new) ones of those per year.

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I'm seeing a lot of this - one particular agent who seems to be believing his own ********, despite the fact that in the past two weeks at least 5 sales of his have fallen through. He appears to be very good at pushing people into offering high, only to come a cropper when the surveyor takes a look and values the place. The problem, as you say, is that the vendors then think that the next person through the door will offer the same, and somehow will be able to complete.

...

Just an anecdote: got some pulped wood through the letterbox today from one of the local EAs (Frosts). Basically a long list of houses they've sold recently, with the asking prices and the sold price, and how they were mostly achieving the asking price. Which sounds impressive, until you notice that every single example in their advert is 'Sale Agreed' - so presumably, not sold at all and going to be back on the market in a few weeks time. But it helps create the illusion of a bubbling market.

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Strong evidence that many owners of mid-to-upper homes have sought to sell over past few years, but after getting little interest or 'insulting offers' pulled them off market, until it 'recovers'. They instantly accept house prices can rise 10/20% a year, but it doesn't compute when it's the other way around, and their homes fall in value.

It's going to take a long, long time to deprogram 15+ years of property propaganda from the average Briton and get them used to the idea that the market value of their property is what somebody else is willing and able to pay, not whatever price they want to get for it.

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Just an anecdote: got some pulped wood through the letterbox today from one of the local EAs (Frosts). Basically a long list of houses they've sold recently, with the asking prices and the sold price, and how they were mostly achieving the asking price. Which sounds impressive, until you notice that every single example in their advert is 'Sale Agreed' - so presumably, not sold at all and going to be back on the market in a few weeks time. But it helps create the illusion of a bubbling market.

If the EA is actually stating the agreed price before completeion, that could be a breach of confidentiality.

I would go apeshit if an EA revealed my offer publicly before completion.

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It is rather funny, attempted sellers around here (HP / South East) are trying to go over the £500k threshold, and expecting the buyer to write out a huge cheque to George Mc knobber. Sufficient to say they remain unsold - trying chancers dobbed on, and I can already hear the blubbing (good), and suspect the "recovery" will be short-lived.

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Are these Mumbles EAs? The thing is, as at £350k, or even £250k there's surely a limited number of buyers in Swansea. £350k is hospital consultant territory and there's not many (new) ones of those per year.

The EA I was talking with said lots of sales were falling through as some surveyors were refusing to OK the silly asking price/offers.

I am told that anything up to 120 sells which is half decent, up to 150 becomes a struggle and then you can forget it as you approach 200K. Once you get above stamp duty of 250K sales fall off a cliff apparently. But as some of the EAs have pushed so many houses up well above 250K you have to ask where the buyers are coming from.

I am told that one Mumbles EA was bullish a few months back because they had so many 'sales' but apparently they have had a lot of sales fall through very recently due to sellers pulling out or surveyors not OKing the price.

I think anyone would be mad to pay over 250K for a house in Swansea West as I simply can't see how you would sell it X years down the road - assuming that anything around 200K becomes struggle territory.

One EA Manager of a large firm told me that he thinks it - housing market - has already taken a downturn and that all the bubble talk was just hype and nothing more.

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I've normally had around 25/30 houses on the market in my local area , its jumped to 85 within the last two month's, quite a few have gone stc under £200k ,which have been on for a while. Seems to be a bit of a spurt before the Christmas wind down.! Number for rent has dropped .

There seems a lot of planning application's getting the green light around the periphery of Cardiff.

I other thing I noticed yesterday was the number of uaciton properties, I do a NN1+40 miles search and filter on "auction", it's normally around 130, sometimes goes as low at 90 and as high as 150....it's up to 183 now....that's new too.

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A real rush for the exits should bring the carnage we want :P HTB schemes causing the crash, that would be funny? (Unless they are designed to cause the crash that is :ph34r: )

This is wishful thinking on my part I'm sure, but looking down the list of topics in the past few days, we have had both Clegg and Osborne come out and say that there is no house price bubble, and that there isn't going to be one as a result of HTB. And as much as we all like to think it, neither of these two are really that stupid - they know there is a bubble, that it never deflated, and that what they say will come back to haunt them. Brown's "No more boom and bust" must be very clear in their memory.

I guess it's just, just possible, that all this HTB nonsense is so that they can let the market go down, claim to be correct that there was indeed no "new" bubble, and claim that they did everything in their power to prevent a bust. I'm sure they'd rather put it off until after the election, but whether intentional or not, all the ducks seem to be all lined up to let it go down with the minimum amount of reputational damage.

Edited by Fully Detached

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This is wishful thinking on my part I'm sure, but looking down the list of topics in the past few days, we have had both Clegg and Osborne come out and say that there is no house price bubble, and that there isn't going to be one as a result of HTB. And as much as we all like to think it, neither of these two are really that stupid - they know there is a bubble, that it never deflated,

How do you explain this then ?

( Note, the graph is almost exactly mirroring the previous crash, this wont bottom out for another 3 years if that continues ).

homepage.png

The bubble is well and truely burst. The secret is to buy at the burst price and not at the peak price. That's the main problem at present, vendors are able to hang on and wait for the greatest of the greater fools...I've seen some of these wise people now trying for 6 years to sell. Maybe this is their chance...but where are these greatest fools to be found ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The bubble is well and truely burst. The secret is to buy at the burst price and not at the peak price. That's the main problem at present, vendors are able to hang on and wait for the greatest of the greater fools...I've seen some of these wise people now trying for 6 years to sell. Maybe this is their chance...but where are these greatest fools to be found ?

Ditto. Numerous houses that have been on for 6 years or so in my area. They change EAs. Some of them are now appearing on the self-selling websites rather than use local EAs.

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Ditto. Numerous houses that have been on for 6 years or so in my area. They change EAs. Some of them are now appearing on the self-selling websites rather than use local EAs.

Auction with no reserve would find the market price.

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