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koala_bear

Retail Sales Figures Trend

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An interesting recent Tweet from an FT journalist got me thinking.

https://twitter.com/CardiffGarcia/status/379645847312404480/photo/1

The basic premise of the graph in the tweet is that UK retail sales grew at an average 3.2% from 1968 to 1994 then a supercharged 4.2% from 1994 to 2007 then and averaged 3.8% since the end of 2009.

The point appears that the extra above very long term trend growth of the 1994 -2007 boom seems to have been purged by the 07-09 recession and we are back on the long term 1968-94 trend...

What happened to the retail or credit environments in '94 to start this increased retail spree?

I'm assuming something credit related?

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An interesting recent Tweet from an FT journalist got me thinking.

https://twitter.com/...2404480/photo/1

The basic premise of the graph in the tweet is that UK retail sales grew at an average 3.2% from 1968 to 1994 then a supercharged 4.2% from 1994 to 2007 then and averaged 3.8% since the end of 2009.

The point appears that the extra above very long term trend growth of the 1994 -2007 boom seems to have been purged by the 07-09 recession and we are back on the long term 1968-94 trend...

What happened to the retail or credit environments in '94 to start this increased retail spree?

I'm assuming something credit related?

Getting thrown out of the ERM made imports a lot cheaper, temporarily. Gordo's debt bubble thereafter. The post-09 'trend' is Osbo's debt bubble.

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As long as wages continue to lag price inflation I can't see how retail figures are going to increase in anything other than nominal total price of sales, with essentials (where people have little choice but to pay the price asked) comprising a higher and higher percentage of spend.

As for the spurts in the past, almost certainly easier access to credit.

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An interesting recent Tweet from an FT journalist got me thinking.

https://twitter.com/CardiffGarcia/status/379645847312404480/photo/1

The basic premise of the graph in the tweet is that UK retail sales grew at an average 3.2% from 1968 to 1994 then a supercharged 4.2% from 1994 to 2007 then and averaged 3.8% since the end of 2009.

The point appears that the extra above very long term trend growth of the 1994 -2007 boom seems to have been purged by the 07-09 recession and we are back on the long term 1968-94 trend...

What happened to the retail or credit environments in '94 to start this increased retail spree?

I'm assuming something credit related?

But 3.8% is closer to 4.2% than to 3.2%, and 3.8% is the rate in an effective recession. That makes it unclear to me that we have gone back to the 68 - 94 trend. If we do properly come out of this recession is the rate likely to rise or fall?

Peter.

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It's simply incredible that retail sales can grow at all during a period of recession and stagnation, never mind at a steady 3.8% p.a..

The power of money printing ... should be interesting to see what happens when the chickens come home to roost.

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It's simply incredible that retail sales can grow at all during a period of recession and stagnation, never mind at a steady 3.8% p.a..

The power of money printing ... should be interesting to see what happens when the chickens come home to roost.

A trillion quid buys a LOT of tat.

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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