Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
interestrateripoff

Uk Inflation Rate Falls To 2.7% In August

Recommended Posts

Very difficult to dig up the RPI data set, All I want is two data sets when I look on NOS but the site is a maze and the data hard to access Here is the RPI data set. eventually found from google because you aint got a prayer on RPI on their f**ked up menu..again leapt to 251.0 from 249.7.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=CHAW&dataset=mm23&table-id=2.1

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst RPI......the one they swept under the carpet increased from 3.1% to 3.3% on the year to August compared to the year to July.......(if my calculations from ONS tables are correct). If someone could check my figs are correct I think this needs HIGHLIGHTING.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst RPI......the one they swept under the carpet increased from 3.1% to 3.3% on the year to August compared to the year to July.......(if my calculations from ONS tables are correct). If someone could check my figs are correct I think this needs HIGHLIGHTING.

Yes, that's the figure that others are reporting, e.g. Shaun Richards / JaneTracey,

Peter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

course, the REAL inflation rate is 8%...as exposed by the increase in running costs for MPS ( expenses)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find it funny that the CPI in Ireland is 0.2% yoy

I am beginning to suspect that if the UK had regional CIP, RPI and GDP figures that you would have deflation in some areas such as Scotland and hyperinflation in London.

Fair enough Ireland is a different country, but it is landlocked with northern Ireland and the inflation can't be much different, I would go as far as saying the inflation up north was lower therefore there must be deflation up north.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexaugust2013/#.Ujgrwj8tBnU

Prices on average, as measured by the CPI, were 0.2% higher in August compared with August 2012.

The most notable changes in the year were increases in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+5.4%), Education (+4.8%) and Restaurants & Hotels (+1.6%). There were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-5.1%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-4.0%) and Transport (-3.3%).

Consumer Prices in August, as measured by the CPI, increased by 0.1% in the month. This compares to an increase of 0.6% recorded in August of last year. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Clothing & Footwear (+4.2%) and Restaurants & Hotels (+0.2%). There were decreases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-0.6%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-0.6%).

Contributions to the overall CPI – annual change

Table 17 shows the contribution of each 2-digit COICOP1 division to the overall change in the CPI. A detailed breakdown of the individual components of each of the 12 COICOP divisions is presented in Tables 4 to 15.

The divisions which caused the largest upward contribution to the CPI in the year were Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+0.29%), Restaurants & Hotels (+0.25%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+0.21%) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (+0.17%).

The divisions which caused the largest downward contribution to the CPI in the year were Transport (-0.57%), Clothing & Footwear (-0.23%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-0.18%).

The main factors contributing to the annual change were as follows:

♦ Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco rose due to higher prices for alcohol sold in off licences and supermarkets and higher tobacco prices.

♦ Restaurants & Hotels increased mainly due to higher prices for alcohol consumed on licenced premises.

♦ Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels rose mainly due to increases in the cost of rents, electricity and gas, which were partially offset by lower mortgage interest repayments.

♦ Miscellaneous Goods & Services increased mainly due to higher health insurance premiums.

♦ Transport fell mainly due to decreases in airfares and petrol and diesel prices.

♦ Clothing & Footwear fell due to clothing and footwear sales.

♦ Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance decreased mainly due to furniture and furnishings sales.

Contributions to the overall CPI – monthly change

The divisions which caused the largest upward contribution to the CPI in the month were Clothing & Footwear (+0.18%) and Restaurants & Hotels (+0.03%).

The divisions which caused the largest downward contribution to the CPI in the month were Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-0.07%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-0.04%).

The main factors contributing to the monthly change were as follows:

♦ Clothing & Footwear rose due to a recovery in prices following the traditional summer sales.

♦ Restaurants & Hotels rose mainly due to an increase in the price of hotel accommodation.

♦ Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages decreased due to lower prices across a range of products.

♦ Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco fell due to lower prices for wine, spirits and beer sold in off licences and supermarkets.

CPI sub-indices

The annual rate of inflation for Services was 1.5% in the year to August, while Goods decreased by 1.5%. Services, excluding mortgage interest repayments, increased by 2.3% in the year since August 2012.

The CPI excluding tobacco for August remained unchanged in the month and in the year. The CPI excluding energy products remained unchanged in the month and increased by 0.3% in the year. The CPI excluding mortgage interest rose by 0.1% in the month and was up by 0.5% in the year.

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

Prices on average, as measured by the HICP, remained unchanged compared with August 2012. The most notable changes in the year were increases in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+5.4%), Education (+4.8%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+4.3%). There were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-5.1%), Transport (-4.7%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.9%).

The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.1% in the month, compared to an increase of 0.8% recorded in August of last year. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Clothing & Footwear (+4.2%) and Restaurants & Hotels (+0.2%). There were decreases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-0.7%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-0.7%).

I think that this is where centralization of things in the UK has cocked up.

The UK has a large population, so give each area it's own interest rate, even macro lending rules and different tax rates (Inner London, Outer London, Cornwall and Devon, Bristol, Wales and Scotland). One blanket economic policy of all areas is madness.

In fact it's quite obvious that running the country from London and blanket policy has not worked for 50 years. No wonder the Scottish want out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the CPI, housing rents are up 2.3% on last year – a lot less than many of the private VI surveys would have you believe.

And as usual there's a glaring anomaly with the ONS numbers. The new CPIH series is designed to incorporate owner occupier housing costs into the measure of inflation – something that the CPI has received a great deal of criticism for.

To try to measure OO housing costs they use a 'rental equivalent' approach, which seems pretty straightforward in the definition they give:

"Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy

for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the

question "how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?"

for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices.

Although, this may be inconsistent with some users' expectations of measures

of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains makes

the measure less suitable for a measure of consumption."

So what is the current rate of inflation for OO housing costs?

0.9% p.a.

Yep, just 0.9%, whereas if you're actually renting a property the inflation rate is supposedly 2.3%.

Furthermore, if OO equivalent rent is being measured for the GDP calcs (imputed rent) the inflation rate magically jumps to somewhere between 4% and 5% p.a.

So, let's look at the inflation rate between 2005 and 2013:

Actual rentals for housing in CPI: +23%

OO equivalent rent in CPIH: +7%

OO equivalent rent in GDP: +59%

What a pile of crock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the CPI, housing rents are up 2.3% on last year – a lot less than many of the private VI surveys would have you believe.

And as usual there's a glaring anomaly with the ONS numbers. The new CPIH series is designed to incorporate owner occupier housing costs into the measure of inflation – something that the CPI has received a great deal of criticism for.

To try to measure OO housing costs they use a 'rental equivalent' approach, which seems pretty straightforward in the definition they give:

"Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy

for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the

question "how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?"

for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices.

Although, this may be inconsistent with some users' expectations of measures

of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains makes

the measure less suitable for a measure of consumption."

So what is the current rate of inflation for OO housing costs?

0.9% p.a.

Yep, just 0.9%, whereas if you're actually renting a property the inflation rate is supposedly 2.3%.

Furthermore, if OO equivalent rent is being measured for the GDP calcs (imputed rent) the inflation rate magically jumps to somewhere between 4% and 5% p.a.

So, let's look at the inflation rate between 2005 and 2013:

Actual rentals for housing in CPI: +23%

OO equivalent rent in CPIH: +7%

OO equivalent rent in GDP: +59%

What a pile of crock.

Interesting. Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it must be some kind of magic; house prices (25% to35% of each person monthly total spending) are going up 6% pa, but the CPI is just 2.7%

ooh, Gordon Brown removed the house prices from CPI; what a clever chap ...

Not totally sure on this, but I think it's not the house price that goes into the measure. It's the monthly repayment. Now, if the government were to introduce a scheme that gave the home buyer an interest free loan for the house purchase they could make the repayments cheaper and HPI would be negative as far as inflation indices are concerned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   224 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.