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The Masked Tulip

Us Mortgage Applications Plunge To Lowest Since October 2008 In The Last Global Financial Crisis

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I was just wondering what the chances of our summer bubble falling away like the US housing recovery has done - it bounced earlier this year and has now gone into decline again. The Yanks didn't have a H2B though did they.

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I was just wondering what the chances of our summer bubble falling away like the US housing recovery has done - it bounced earlier this year and has now gone into decline again. The Yanks didn't have a H2B though did they.

Very likely IMO. H2B 1.0 isn't that big in absolute terms. I suspect the credit impulse it's given the economy has peaked already. The yanks have had QE infinity instead, served much the same purpose and pushed a lot of cash speculators into the market. But prices are still too high for a sustainable recovery, and debt yields are up too making that progressively harder to achieve. Tomorrow's taper announcement should add momentum to the sell off.

The only other thing keeping UK house prices inflated is govt spending. Not sure if H2B 2.0 can deliver as much of a kick as H2B 1.0 but doubtless Osborne's got many more fiscal 'surprises' to pull out of the hat between now and the GE.

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I was just wondering what the chances of our summer bubble falling away like the US housing recovery has done - it bounced earlier this year and has now gone into decline again. The Yanks didn't have a H2B though did they.

I hope that it will start at the top end of London houses; like in Dubai; maybe even this year:

- housing benefit cap

- international investors getting cold feet

- rich people selling off

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As far as I'm aware, they aren't as obsessed with house prices is the US. Bernanke and his chums and political stooges will all be massively into equities, not BTLs, so they don't really care what happens to the house prices. So I don't think it's directly comparable with the UK, where the personal wealth of our rulers and masters (and politicians) is so dependent on house prices.

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As far as I'm aware, they aren't as obsessed with house prices is the US. Bernanke and his chums and political stooges will all be massively into equities, not BTLs, so they don't really care what happens to the house prices. So I don't think it's directly comparable with the UK, where the personal wealth of our rulers and masters (and politicians) is so dependent on house prices.

Good point.

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