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Tired of Waiting

Sterling Hits 8-Month High Versus Weaker Dollar

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This could be a window for overseas investors to cash out of UK property before demand dries up completely.

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This could be a window for overseas investors to cash out of UK property before demand dries up completely.

I was thinking the same thing - not property but just getting into some dollar assets. Heck, I might go and buy some silver if it drops this week and the Pound rises :o

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I was thinking the same thing - not property but just getting into some dollar assets. Heck, I might go and buy some silver if it drops this week and the Pound rises :o

Great minds think alike. I am taking the opportunity this month to transfer almost everything we own into PM's at the current bargain basement prices.

IMO PM prices are primarily driven be fear of the PONZI collapsing, at the moment that fear is low hence prices are low. The list of problems that could spike and cause fear to return is huge.

Edited by Gone to Ireland.

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I was thinking the same thing - not property but just getting into some dollar assets. Heck, I might go and buy some silver if it drops this week and the Pound rises :o

+ 1

I'm also having an itch to move more of my savings from sterling to dollar. (Or perhaps even buy my first gold? Just a little? :unsure: )

I have a dollar savings account, but my bank charges too much to transfer from my GBP savings account to my USD savings account, almost 2%! That's ridiculous. I need to find a better way - cheaper, but also safe though.

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Great minds think alike. I am taking the opportunity this month to transfer almost everything we own into PM's at the current bargain basement prices.

IMO PM prices are primarily driven be fear of the PONZI collapsing, at the moment that fear is low hence prices are low. The list of problems that could spike and cause fear to return is huge.

If they do announce some kind of Fed taper later this week perhaps there will be a dip in gold and silver? Perhaps the dollar will also rally though.

But if silver and gold did go down - silver to 18 or 17 area -and the Pound was about 159 or even 160 to the buck... Hmm, what is Silver Wheaton and Co doing this week?

In all seriousness, I have become depressed about all the housing VI bull since basically Carney took over - and which is now out of control as of last week - but it just makes me think even more that there is a crisis coming for the UK a few years down the line.

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+ 1

I'm also having an itch to move more of my savings from sterling to dollar. (Or perhaps even buy my first gold? Just a little? :unsure: )

I am thinking of the miner silver wheaton - when gold and silver spike back in July/Aug it shot up 35% within a few days. The risk, of course, is that it could plunge that much again. But something like that 'helps' you overcome your exchange rate fees.

Of course, there are UK companies involved in such metals which, by buying into them, gives you access to dollars technically. The big miners and drug firms all hold assets in sterling, dollars, euros and probably a few other currencies.

I am not expert. I am sure others could explain it better than myself.

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I don't know much about miners, moneyweek often has a lot of advice about them. I am going to pick up a few more 1kg silver coins for my retirement fund before Germany put the VAT on silver coins up from 7% to 21%. I guess after this I will have o find someone willing to post from outside Europe, but where there's a market ...

Otherwise everything is going into Bullion Vault. I am getting it all out of Ireland as the writin is on the wall again regarding mortgage arrears and the banks (government) running out of money again. Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, France - nothing has been fixed.

UK - London property bubble now dwarfs that of Ireland in 2007, will collapse in the next couple of years causing the pound to devalue to parity with the Euro.

USD, is under threat from BRICS getting together, that's where PM's will cover your ass.

Keeping my finders crossed that BRICS continue their Bond selling and gold programs to conclusion over the next couple of years. I am hoping that when the madness of property speculation collapses in a big way it also brings some sanity to the rest of the UK economy.

TPTB have bough time and increased the size of the problem by lowering the cost of borrowing, but they have reached the end of the road with that after 5 years and a painful correction now looks unavoidable.

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I don't know much about miners, moneyweek often has a lot of advice about them. I am going to pick up a few more 1kg silver coins for my retirement fund before Germany put the VAT on silver coins up from 7% to 21%. I guess after this I will have o find someone willing to post from outside Europe, but where there's a market ...

Otherwise everything is going into Bullion Vault. I am getting it all out of Ireland as the writin is on the wall again regarding mortgage arrears and the banks (government) running out of money again. Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, France - nothing has been fixed.

UK - London property bubble now dwarfs that of Ireland in 2007, will collapse in the next couple of years causing the pound to devalue to parity with the Euro.

USD, is under threat from BRICS getting together, that's where PM's will cover your ass.

Keeping my finders crossed that BRICS continue their Bond selling and gold programs to conclusion over the next couple of years. I am hoping that when the madness of property speculation collapses in a big way it also brings some sanity to the rest of the UK economy.

TPTB have bough time and increased the size of the problem by lowering the cost of borrowing, but they have reached the end of the road with that after 5 years and a painful correction now looks unavoidable.

When you mention Ireland you are talking about Eire? Are mortgage arrears up in Eire again? What is going on with Irish banks - I thought the UK had bailed out the Irish banks?

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When you mention Ireland you are talking about Eire? Are mortgage arrears up in Eire again? What is going on with Irish banks - I thought the UK had bailed out the Irish banks?

Ha, ha - Yes Eire.

This is the basic story:

Background: People bought overpriced investment property at London price levels. When mom&pop stopped buying investment properties in Ghost Estates with borrowed money the **** fell out of the property market and thousands of estates and houses were built that frankly are not needed and remain empty to this day.

Property prices are down 50% - 60% and unemployment is up to about 15% because there are now no building jobs,

Banks are insolvent and were bailed out by the TROIKA, BOI (RBS) and BOSI were bailed out by the UK taxpayer because they were owned by them.

Today:

People stopped paying their mortgages because of a) they lost their jobs, B) they were in negative equity and did not want to pay back.

Banks will not take the writedown so do have not repossessed any properties since the collapse. People can see that there is no consequence for not paying your mortgage, so every month more and more stop paying.

Mortgage arrears are currently growing, banks are continuously losing money, not just on the bad loans but also on the vast number of tracker mortgages written at EBC + 0.5%.

mortgage-arrears-5.jpg

The Irish government currently have limited access to the bond market, so when the banks eventually need bailing out again we will see the same issues as 2009/2010, but this time around the lenders of last resort are already maxed out and interest rates are already 0%.

I believe that many of the other peripheral euro-zone countries are experiencing similar, but different problems. IMO, The only real way out of the problem is a big debt reset.

We won't see much action until after the German elections with issues being swept under the carpet and liquidity being drip fed into critical areas. Since the UKs major trading partner is the euro-zone it will not be immune from these problems.

I suppose to sum things up, nothing has been fixed and the debts have been slowly growing bigger thus the chances of repayment and austerity working much reduced.

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What does 'limited access to the bond markets' actually mean? Anyone know?

It means that the interest rate on the bonds is so high that living from the credit card of bonds is not possible.

Compare the following to the cost of the UK's credit card interest and you will quickly see what the problem is.

http://www.ise.ie/Prices,-Indices-Stats/Bond-Market-Data/

SEDOL Code Issuer Instrument Last Close Price Last Close Date

B3KWYS2 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.00 per cent Treasury Bond 2014 € 101.230 13/09/2013

B4V6D49 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.50 per cent Treasury Bond 2015 € 105.115 13/09/2013

0468017 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 8.25 per cent Treasury Bond 2015 € 90.000 18/04/2011

0685753 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.60 per cent Treasury Bond 2016 € 107.286 13/09/2013

B8DLLB3 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.50 per cent Treasury Bond 2017 € 110.815 13/09/2013

B28HXX0 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.50 per cent Treasury Bond 2018 € 107.250 13/09/2013

B2QTFG5 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.40 per cent Treasury Bond 2019 € 105.540 13/09/2013

B6089D1 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.90 per cent Treasury Bond 2019 € 112.822 13/09/2013

3407448 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 4.50 per cent Treasury Bond 2020 € 104.575 13/09/2013

B60Z619 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.00 per cent Treasury Bond 2020 € 107.229 13/09/2013

B4S3JD4 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 3.90 per cent Treasury Bond 2023 € 99.240 13/09/2013

B4TV0D4 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.40 per cent Treasury Bond 2025 € 108.277 13/09/2013

B7XWNN5 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.72 per cent Amortising Bond 20 July 2027 € 109.463 04/12/2012

B8J2NN6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.72 per cent Amortising Bond 2027 (issued 2013) € 113.730 04/09/2013

B8HCPH6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.82 per cent Amortising Bond 2032 (issued 2013) € 114.830 04/09/2013

B7Z55X6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.82 per cent Amortising Bond 20 March 2032 € 110.243 04/12/2012

B8JXZJ9 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 20 January 2037 € 109.230 10/12/2012

B8MZCR9 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 2037 (issued 2013) € 115.490 04/09/2013

B7SH670 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2038

B92QZW5 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2041

B8JYSW6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 20 May 2042 € 111.691 04/12/2012

B8RZMN0 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 2042 (issued 2013) € 118.300 04/09/2013

B92QZX6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2043

B92QZY7 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2045

B92QZZ8 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2047

B86ST62 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 20 September 2047 € 113.063 04/12/2012

B7TN592 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS 5.92 per cent Amortising Bond 2047 (issued 2013) € 120.620 04/09/2013

B96B0F4 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2049

B8BCNG7 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2051

B96PQX6 IRISH GOVERNMENT BONDS Floating Rate Treasury Bond due 2053

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UK - London property bubble now dwarfs that of Ireland in 2007, will collapse in the next couple of years causing the pound to devalue to parity with the Euro.

I'm all for a collapse in London property, but why would it cause a devaluation in sterling especially?

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I'm all for a collapse in London property, but why would it cause a devaluation in sterling especially?

Dont know why, but it did last time prices fell. going from around 2.2 usd to the gbp to 1.35 in a pretty short time frame. It only got so strong also because initially us house prices fell and uk ones didnt, so it seems they had the same affliction.

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It's got nothing to do with leisure suit Larry. Bernanke's successor will be a casino insider whomever they nominate. The real explanation is that the Fed and Treasury have conspired to flush the dealers with QE cash this week to ensure Wednesday's taper announcement doesn't scare the horses.

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+ 1

I'm also having an itch to move more of my savings from sterling to dollar. (Or perhaps even buy my first gold? Just a little? :unsure: )

I have a dollar savings account, but my bank charges too much to transfer from my GBP savings account to my USD savings account, almost 2%! That's ridiculous. I need to find a better way - cheaper, but also safe though.

I've been using currancyfair for a while without any problems. Significantly better rates than the banks and only a 4 quid transfer fee

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Dont know why, but it did last time prices fell. going from around 2.2 usd to the gbp to 1.35 in a pretty short time frame. It only got so strong also because initially us house prices fell and uk ones didnt, so it seems they had the same affliction.

The £ devaluation was caused by the interest rate going from 6% to 0.5%. Nothing to do with house prices (which naturally also fell).

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1.59 is surprising. This week for the $ may be telling. If it can bounce from support - again - then it will likely rise again as it has done for 2+ years. If not then that would a) be surprising and b ) would indicate it could fall a lot.

b would be surprising.

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The £ devaluation was caused by the interest rate going from 6% to 0.5%. Nothing to do with house prices (which naturally also fell).

I agree, i think, but IIRC the US also dropped their IRs around the same time, no?

Back to the GBP/USD, it doesn't look too high on a 10 years chart: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBPUSD%3DX#symbol=;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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The £ devaluation was caused by the interest rate going from 6% to 0.5%. Nothing to do with house prices (which naturally also fell).

Dont see how you can just blame the interest rate when im comparing sterling to the USD and the yanks lowered interest rates in similar fashion. I would say its more it was overvalued in the first place.

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