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Bbc News:viewpoints: Will Help To Buy Create A Housing Bubble?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24061897

Most of the content of the article has all been said before but I must say I'm gob smacked by the comments.

I feel in the last six months there has been such a huge swing in public opinions on the subject of house prices and it certainly shows up well in the highest rated comments.

H0ly cow that is a big change in sentiment - they won't allow comments on any housing article in the near future if that keeps happening!

Any comment with a +ve rating could have come straight from HPC.

Interestingly many people I know in London have come back from the summer holiday thinking housing cost in London have gone bonkers and are actually talking about it. (i.e. they may have had more time on hols for stuff to sink in properly?)

Edited by koala_bear

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Ray ******ing Boulger. :angry:

"Prices outside London and the South East are still well below their 2007 peak."

Of course they are, you moron. The UK's financial system bankrupted itself and the country running them up there.

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Ray ******ing Boulger. :angry:

"Prices outside London and the South East are still well below their 2007 peak."

Of course they are, you moron. The UK's financial system bankrupted itself and the country running them up there.

I have just worked out that average prices in the small area of SW17 that I've been watching have gone up about 37% in the past couple of years alone.

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Time will pass, people will be born who haven't yet bought and people will die who have. The former want lower prices the latter want higher prices. This alone will change sentiment eventually but sadly there are many whose lives have been made unfairly difficult by being born between these two groups.

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Time will pass, people will be born who haven't yet bought and people will die who have. The former want lower prices the latter want higher prices. This alone will change sentiment eventually but sadly there are many whose lives have been made unfairly difficult by being born between these two groups.

Far too simplistic. People who want higher prices are probably mostly those with mortgages who have bought into the market during the past 10 years or so. Unless they live in London they will have little to show for their 10+years of mortgage payments. Those who havn't bought, those who sold and many of those who have no mortgage or a low mortgage in relation to the value of the property want lower prices. The government h2b and other measures are trying to ensure that there are enough future debt slaves from people entering the market who fall into the former category.

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Time will pass, people will be born who haven't yet bought and people will die who have. The former want lower prices the latter want higher prices. This alone will change sentiment eventually but sadly there are many whose lives have been made unfairly difficult by being born between these two groups.

No the latter do not want higher prices....the latter have children and grand children who want a place to live in....the government is losing many of their core voters because of this.....especially when those with multiple property who only need one to live in are reaping the rewards to the detriment of future generations....they only have one vote though. ;)

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It is quite likely that the previous upward trend in property prices may well have come about because of demographics (children of baby boomers (Gen.X) entering relationships, having children and thereby buying property (i.e. a secure roof over their heads relative to renting)) en masse, and likely will be responsible for a marked downtrend as well (fewer number of children per couple (on average) leading to a lower demand for houses with 4 or more bedrooms combined with the general winding down of Gen.X fertility ).

Unfortunately these demographics (as well as elevated prices) may also impact on transaction numbers since increased cost and fewer children per couple also means fewer people changing property as often as previously.

Help to buy should bring transaction numbers up somewhat as those outside the south-east are likely to be able to get out of negative equity and anyone (who has held on to an asset with negative equity for any noticeable period of time) will be able to understand the desire to get shot of said asset as soon as it 'goes green'.

Interesting times, but I see anywhere that isn't within cycling distance of a London underground station (due to the wages available ) declining in value for at least 5 years.

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Apart from the actual buying and selling the government want a policy to blag on about and endlessly claim it's the right thing to do, helping hard working people and so on. It's a desperate need for them as the general election approaches. There are eu elections next year as well.

Osborne was on about H to B the other day and it would have been impossible to fit in more blag lines. The lines were so well rehearsed and coming out each second it was completely incongruous. Even more incongruous than usual and for him that's saying something.

The economy can go do one so far as they are concerned so long as they can spout blag lines and pretend.

Edited by billybong

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It is quite likely that the previous upward trend in property prices may well have come about because of demographics (children of baby boomers (Gen.X) entering relationships, having children and thereby buying property (i.e. a secure roof over their heads relative to renting)) en masse, and likely will be responsible for a marked downtrend as well (fewer number of children per couple (on average) leading to a lower demand for houses with 4 or more bedrooms combined with the general winding down of Gen.X fertility ).

Unfortunately these demographics (as well as elevated prices) may also impact on transaction numbers since increased cost and fewer children per couple also means fewer people changing property as often as previously.

Help to buy should bring transaction numbers up somewhat as those outside the south-east are likely to be able to get out of negative equity and anyone (who has held on to an asset with negative equity for any noticeable period of time) will be able to understand the desire to get shot of said asset as soon as it 'goes green'.

Interesting times, but I see anywhere that isn't within cycling distance of a London underground station (due to the wages available ) declining in value for at least 5 years.

It is not so much the declining in value it is the increase in value well over the rate of inflation and wage inflation......we have been importing many people over the years, these people often come as single people and can live in overcrowded accommodation.....then they pair up and want to get a family home rent or buy....there is nothing they can afford to rent let alone buy......if we encourage it we should build to provide for it or as we have at the moment price everyone out of a place where you can swing a cat and afford to feed one. ;)

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24061897

Most of the content of the article has all been said before but I must say I'm gob smacked by the comments.

I feel in the last six months there has been such a huge swing in public opinions on the subject of house prices and it certainly shows up well in the highest rated comments.

Excellent comments, and brilliant readers' ratings!

I was very gladly surprised by the top rated, pasted below, and it is also an "Editors' Pick"! I think this is the most important economic argument against high house prices. (See my forum signature, below. :) ) I'm VERY glad this argument is becoming more widely known, and gathering broader / popular support.

_________________________________________________________________________

6.

Casaloco

Comment number 6 is an Editors' Pick

13th September 2013 - 12:54

Houses are unaffordable.

We need prices to fall until they become affordable, instead of coming up with increasingly inventive ways to allow people to borrow more money.

High house prices mean people demand higher wages, which pushes up costs in general, and causes manufacturers to more jobs to countries where housing is cheaper.

High house prices have destroyed Great Britain's economy.

_________________________________________________________________________

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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If the US experience, with its similar FHA loan program, is anything to go by it didn't create a bubble, but it probably helped the housing market gain some traction. The government guaranteed loans were underwritten with an insurance premium against default. The default rate actually became quite high, so premiums went up making the loans no longer very attractive to borrowers. The huge, recent spike in home prices in the US has been attributable more to very low borrowing rates, and very low inventory. This has just started to reverse, and prices have been flat for two months.

Government backed mortgage insurance wont create a boom unless it is under priced. Since we don't know how they plan on pricing it, we can't say whether Osbrown the clown's help to sell scheme will actually do anything.

All we can say is that if it has any effect, that effect will be economically damaging.

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Far too simplistic. People who want higher prices are probably mostly those with mortgages who have bought into the market during the past 10 years or so.

There was a survey posted on here earlier this year showing that the further you go up the age groups in the UK, the more positive the perception of rising house prices becomes. It didn't peak in the middle age groups and then decline again for the older ones as you suggest.

Unfortunately I don't seem to be able to find it at the moment, it's not on the favourite charts thread.

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Excellent comments, and brilliant readers' ratings!

I was very gladly surprised by the top rated, pasted below, and it is also an "Editors' Pick"! I think this is the most important economic argument against high house prices. (See my forum signature, below. :) ) I'm VERY glad this argument is becoming more widely known, and gathering broader / popular support.

_________________________________________________________________________

6.

Casaloco

Comment number 6 is an Editors' Pick

13th September 2013 - 12:54

Houses are unaffordable.

We need prices to fall until they become affordable, instead of coming up with increasingly inventive ways to allow people to borrow more money.

High house prices mean people demand higher wages, which pushes up costs in general, and causes manufacturers to more jobs to countries where housing is cheaper.

High house prices have destroyed Great Britain's economy.

_________________________________________________________________________

.

Hail the internet !! truth outs eventually....

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