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Frank Hovis

It's Like A Tide, Give Into It

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I've not posted one of these threads but I genuinely do think there has been a sea change. And it's good news.

Whilst the BoE 0.5% rate is going nowhere anytime soon real rates have been going up steadily this year (5 yr gilts have more than doubled) and IMO that steady rise will keep going, sometimes slowing or retrenching but climbing with relentless inevitability. And that rate determines that of new mortgages.

Several influential politicians and bankers have said they won't allow a housing bubble again; so forget speculative gains by over-stretching yourself to buy that house you can't really afford on an IO mortgage which means nobody chasing the market up.

House prices are rarely static, they're either rising or falling. So if they're not going to rise then down they go.

I have been on the cusp of buying this year for practical reasons, but having had a long hard look I am holding on until 2015 as I think I will be kicking myself if I buy now when the tide has already begun to turn.

3.06, Richard Griffiths as Uncle Monty.

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I've not posted one of these threads but I genuinely do think there has been a sea change. And it's good news.

Whilst the BoE 0.5% rate is going nowhere anytime soon real rates have been going up steadily this year (5 yr gilts have more than doubled) and IMO that steady rise will keep going, sometimes slowing or retrenching but climbing with relentless inevitability. And that rate determines that of new mortgages.

Several influential politicians and bankers have said they won't allow a housing bubble again; so forget speculative gains by over-stretching yourself to buy that house you can't really afford on an IO mortgage which means nobody chasing the market up.

House prices are rarely static, they're either rising or falling. So if they're not going to rise then down they go.

I have been on the cusp of buying this year for practical reasons, but having had a long hard look I am holding on until 2015 as I think I will be kicking myself if I buy now when the tide has already begun to turn.

3.06, Richard Griffiths as Uncle Monty.

One eyed scottish snotgobbling phonelobbying sue blaming fabian sycophant ******* Moron McBroon also promised something similar, cant get much more "infuential" than the chancellor himself...

I guess at least this time we're already in a bubble, so even with various madcap schemes, significantly higher prices arent likely, whereas with McBroon there was still downward potential for rates and a lowish (though actually quite a bit above 1995 even by then) base to start with

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So long as gilts keep the gentle rising trend intact for the next while, that will do nicely.

There are some tricky monetary policy decisions on the horizon (tricky if your objectives are aligned with Osborne/Carney at any rate). A Fed taper may create a backdrop which, like 70s wallpaper, is impossible to ignore. Extending QE while the US does its own thing could crucify Osborne's reelection hopes if oil rises strongly.

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In Ireland 2001/2002, many were calling the top and bubble - indeed, they were right and the market should have topped out there. Nobody wanted to stop the party and the government and BOI would not introduce tighter lending standards. The country is paying the price now.

Since the UK government and political system are incapable of doing the right thing, a bubble is guaranteed to form on the back of 0% interest rates. Eventually international rates will rise and the UK will be bankrupt and go running to the Trokia/IMF again.

Again it is inevitable, human greed. Timing of it all is unknown.. I would guess 2015.

Ireland+House+Prices.jpg

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I've not posted one of these threads but I genuinely do think there has been a sea change. And it's good news.

Whilst the BoE 0.5% rate is going nowhere anytime soon real rates have been going up steadily this year (5 yr gilts have more than doubled) and IMO that steady rise will keep going, sometimes slowing or retrenching but climbing with relentless inevitability. And that rate determines that of new mortgages.

Several influential politicians and bankers have said they won't allow a housing bubble again; so forget speculative gains by over-stretching yourself to buy that house you can't really afford on an IO mortgage which means nobody chasing the market up.

House prices are rarely static, they're either rising or falling. So if they're not going to rise then down they go.

I have been on the cusp of buying this year for practical reasons, but having had a long hard look I am holding on until 2015 as I think I will be kicking myself if I buy now when the tide has already begun to turn.

3.06, Richard Griffiths as Uncle Monty.

Well, I hope you're right. but today I heard that someone I know has just put her flat on the market for something over £400K. The highest price asked for that exact type of property in the same road was £365K about a year ago, and it was in better condition. it actually sold for £350K - this is in sw17. I was astounded when I saw the AP of that one, let alone this latest. 2 or 3 years ago the AP for one of these would have been around £270-280, and sold price around £250-265K.

Having said that, this really is beginning to look like the enormous fat bubble about to burst, but then I have thought that before in the past year and still the prices seem to keep whizzing up.

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One eyed scottish snotgobbling phonelobbying sue blaming fabian sycophant ******* Moron McBroon also promised something similar, cant get much more "infuential" than the chancellor himself...

I guess at least this time we're already in a bubble, so even with various madcap schemes, significantly higher prices arent likely, whereas with McBroon there was still downward potential for rates and a lowish (though actually quite a bit above 1995 even by then) base to start with

So, did you like Gordon Brown or not? Hard to tell..

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Well, I hope you're right. but today I heard that someone I know has just put her flat on the market for something over £400K. The highest price asked for that exact type of property in the same road was £365K about a year ago, and it was in better condition. it actually sold for £350K - this is in sw17. I was astounded when I saw the AP of that one, let alone this latest. 2 or 3 years ago the AP for one of these would have been around £270-280, and sold price around £250-265K.

Having said that, this really is beginning to look like the enormous fat bubble about to burst, but then I have thought that before in the past year and still the prices seem to keep whizzing up.

And sales volumes keep going down.

The HTB ( Handout to Bankers ) scheme will eb all they can do to keep the London market from total collapse soon.

The whole thing is teetering on the edge.

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And sales volumes keep going down.

The HTB ( Handout to Bankers ) scheme will eb all they can do to keep the London market from total collapse soon.

The whole thing is teetering on the edge.

HTB another bailout for the bankers, uber low base rates bailout for bankers, it's like the banks are bankrupt.

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HTB another bailout for the bankers, uber low base rates bailout for bankers, it's like the banks are bankrupt.

Yes, well we al know here that this has everything to do with the banks. They don;t want to take their losses and go bankrupt.

I said at the time the correct solution to the baking crisis was not to bailout the banks but to bail out the savers and lock up any fraudulent banker/politician.

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In Ireland 2001/2002, many were calling the top and bubble - indeed, they were right and the market should have topped out there. Nobody wanted to stop the party and the government and BOI would not introduce tighter lending standards. The country is paying the price now.

Since the UK government and political system are incapable of doing the right thing, a bubble is guaranteed to form on the back of 0% interest rates. Eventually international rates will rise and the UK will be bankrupt and go running to the Trokia/IMF again.

Again it is inevitable, human greed. Timing of it all is unknown.. I would guess 2015.

Ireland+House+Prices.jpg

Still 4 times the 1990 index (or 1995), and above the 2001 top. Must still be some way to go, right?

Q

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So long as gilts keep the gentle rising trend intact for the next while, that will do nicely.

There are some tricky monetary policy decisions on the horizon (tricky if your objectives are aligned with Osborne/Carney at any rate). A Fed taper may create a backdrop which, like 70s wallpaper, is impossible to ignore. Extending QE while the US does its own thing could crucify Osborne's reelection hopes if oil rises improves strongly.

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And sales volumes keep going down.

The HTB ( Handout to Bankers ) scheme will eb all they can do to keep the London market from total collapse soon.

The whole thing is teetering on the edge.

The seller of the flat I mentioned was very surprised at the EA's valuation - she has been abroad for some years but has been keeping an eye on the market but even so she had a bit of a shock. Of course she wasn't going to argue with the EA - she is a relatively young person with a young family who is now back in the UK to live, but it just shows how these hair gelled sharks push the market up - they think, well, no harm in trying, somebody will probably be daft enough to put in an offer not far off the asking...

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..it just shows how these hair gelled sharks push the market up - they think, well, no harm in trying, somebody will probably be daft enough to put in an offer not far off the asking...

Been seeing that in Swansea for 13 or 14 years now. No real HPC circa 2008 and now they are ramping and ramping like crazy again.

At this rate, within a few years, large parts of Swansea will be full of half a million pound 3 bed semis in average areas. I joked about this happening about 18 months ago on here but now, worryingly, I can see it becoming reality.

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Again it is inevitable, human greed. Timing of it all is unknown.. I would guess 2015.

I think the markets will be watching the outcome of the election very carefully.

If Labour gets in ........ it'll plummet

If the Tories get in ...... it'll plummet

If it's a coalition....... it'll plummet

:lol:

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I think the markets will be watching the outcome of the election very carefully.

If Labour gets in ........ it'll plummet

If the Tories get in ...... it'll plummet

If it's a coalition....... it'll plummet

:lol:

What makes you think an incoming government won't just continue the same folly as Brown and Osbourne have done?

Whoever wins will be paid for by the banks as before so will do their bidding, can't see the banks saying OK let's have the crash now.

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I complemented my EA on a recently seen SOLD (SSTC) board.

He said they'd sold a few this summer....only ONE had completed.

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I complemented my EA on a recently seen SOLD (SSTC) board.

He said they'd sold a few this summer....only ONE had completed.

Where are you talking about?

I wish I could say the same about SW London, but everything I watch seems to be going through. God knows I spend enough time having a good old nose on nethouseprices...

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Where are you talking about?

I wish I could say the same about SW London, but everything I watch seems to be going through. God knows I spend enough time having a good old nose on nethouseprices...

Going through yes but at a glacial speed. (Lag implication on indices data i.e. Haliwide, CML, BBA/BSA/BoE and trying to get an accurate picture. i.e. offers -vs- advances)

2 friends buying in different SW post codes, both more than 7 months and counting since offers due to huge numbers of hiccups.

The first keys next week...

A 3rd had the house warming last week, the offer had gone in last November...

FLS is pumping the London Market.

This can't be good for EA's cashflow.

Anything involving second steppers and hence chains looks problematic.

Edited by koala_bear

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I've not posted one of these threads but I genuinely do think there has been a sea change. And it's good news.

Whilst the BoE 0.5% rate is going nowhere anytime soon real rates have been going up steadily this year (5 yr gilts have more than doubled) and IMO that steady rise will keep going, sometimes slowing or retrenching but climbing with relentless inevitability. And that rate determines that of new mortgages.

Several influential politicians and bankers have said they won't allow a housing bubble again; so forget speculative gains by over-stretching yourself to buy that house you can't really afford on an IO mortgage which means nobody chasing the market up.

House prices are rarely static, they're either rising or falling. So if they're not going to rise then down they go.

I have been on the cusp of buying this year for practical reasons, but having had a long hard look I am holding on until 2015 as I think I will be kicking myself if I buy now when the tide has already begun to turn.

3.06, Richard Griffiths as Uncle Monty.

"I shall have you even if it is burglary"

Sorry after you posted that Withnail & I clip I couldnt resist :lol:

Seriously though while the UK adheres to this attitude with regard to house ownership then I'm staying outside

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I've not posted one of these threads but I genuinely do think there has been a sea change. And it's good news.

Whilst the BoE 0.5% rate is going nowhere anytime soon real rates have been going up steadily this year (5 yr gilts have more than doubled) and IMO that steady rise will keep going, sometimes slowing or retrenching but climbing with relentless inevitability. And that rate determines that of new mortgages.

Several influential politicians and bankers have said they won't allow a housing bubble again; so forget speculative gains by over-stretching yourself to buy that house you can't really afford on an IO mortgage which means nobody chasing the market up.

House prices are rarely static, they're either rising or falling. So if they're not going to rise then down they go.

I have been on the cusp of buying this year for practical reasons, but having had a long hard look I am holding on until 2015 as I think I will be kicking myself if I buy now when the tide has already begun to turn.

3.06, Richard Griffiths as Uncle Monty.

I guess it all depends on what and where. The missus and I are looking at 5 to 550k in Bedfordshire ish between M1 and A1 up to Northampton. I think most of those houses will not fall no matter what because the owners are typically well established. They will just say "its worth this and I'm not moving till we get X" We can like you keep waiting but I have been doing that now for several YEARS. Waiting on this prediction and that prediction.

The whole sorry mess has not followed a traditional correction so all bets and predictions are off as far as I am concerned.

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I guess it all depends on what and where. The missus and I are looking at 5 to 550k in Bedfordshire ish between M1 and A1 up to Northampton. I think most of those houses will not fall no matter what because the owners are typically well established. They will just say "its worth this and I'm not moving till we get X" We can like you keep waiting but I have been doing that now for several YEARS. Waiting on this prediction and that prediction.

The whole sorry mess has not followed a traditional correction so all bets and predictions are off as far as I am concerned.

Yet!

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Yet!

Is that another prediction lol.

Its funny I said to the missus last night I felt we are just about at the "Return to Normal" point on my favorite graph. BUT there has been no normal on that graph so far has there! Our new graph does not look anything like that.

Edited by Soul Reaver

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I guess it all depends on what and where. The missus and I are looking at 5 to 550k in Bedfordshire ish between M1 and A1 up to Northampton. I think most of those houses will not fall no matter what because the owners are typically well established. They will just say "its worth this and I'm not moving till we get X" We can like you keep waiting but I have been doing that now for several YEARS. Waiting on this prediction and that prediction.

The whole sorry mess has not followed a traditional correction so all bets and predictions are off as far as I am concerned.

Unless the UK govt can rack up another trillion pounds of debt + interest in the next five years prices will fall. The only thing that will slow that fall is current price inflation. Either way, the UK is utterly fornicated.

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Unless the UK govt can rack up another trillion pounds of debt + interest in the next five years prices will fall. The only thing that will slow that fall is current price inflation. Either way, the UK is utterly fornicated.

This I do agree with BUT it still leaves me in need of a home. My take on that now is we buy our dream home that we want to live in and love for the next 30 years and pay it off before interest rates rise and then it don't matter what it's worth or what we paid for it.

Edited by Soul Reaver

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This I do agree with BUT it still leaves me in need of a home. My take on that now is we buy our dream home that we want to live in and love for the next 30 years and pay it off before interest rates rise and then it don't matter what it's worth or what we paid for it.

If that's how you think then it doesn't matter when you buy, although you may just feel a little sad if you've paid half a mil, plus interest, for a house that's worth half that.

Each to his own, though. I'll continue to rent my home until I see value for money in the housing market.

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