zugzwang Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 UK economy = house price bubble. House price bubble = UK economy. Has this relationship ever been more starkly apparent than it is today? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10301646/Strong-jobs-market-helped-by-rising-house-prices.html Unemployment dropped to 7.7pc, from 7.8pc in the three months to April, as 80,000 jobs were created over the period. Economists had expected employment to rise by about 55,000, but a 10pc surge in the “real estate” workforce in the second quarter helped deliver the better-than-expected result. Some 50,000 new real estate jobs were created in the three months to June, taking the industry’s workforce to 562,000. John Philpott, director of The Jobs Economist, said: “This is by far the strongest overall set of official UK labour market figures this year and indicates that the summer surge in economic growth was accompanied by a jobs surge. “Encouragingly almost all parts of the private sector added jobs, including manufacturing, but the stand out sector is Real Estate which saw a jump in employment of almost 10pc in the second quarter of the year, almost certainly a reflection of the recent resurgence in housing market activity.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 50,000 jobs all in anticipation of this new housing bubble that the media says will happen. This is comedy gold. I might start encouraging people to buy a house. The sooner this country runs out of property loons the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 50,000 jobs all in anticipation of this new housing bubble that the media says will happen. This is comedy gold. I might start encouraging people to buy a house. The sooner this country runs out of property loons the better. are there really over half a million people working in the estate agent industry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The knock-on effects for hair gel producers will be fantastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The knock-on effects for hair gel producers will be fantastic. Go long shiny suits and illiteracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 are there really over half a million people working in the estate agent industry? No, 450,000 of them are just staring out the window waiting for the next bubble... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 No, 450,000 of them are just staring out the window waiting for the next bubble... From Dec 2008 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/3964909/Housing-market-crash-has-led-to-32000-estate-agents-losing-their-job.html "...calculates that the number of estate agents in work has fallen from 80,000 in the summer of 2007 to 48,000 at Christmas." I'm sure they fell from there, so what 30-40,000 now? Hmm original story doesn't match. Depends on definition though, apples and oranges etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 and how many time did Cameron say 'low interest rates' and 'low mortgages' in PQT today. to paraphrase Nelson ... I see no housing bubble. He must be taking lessons from Mervo the Clown. February, 2008. 'The central view in this forecast is, looking several years ahead, there's no reason to expect house prices to be markedly above where they are now. 'It's conceivable there might be falls in house prices, but broadly speaking we're looking at quite a long period now of stability in house prices, and that would enable there to be quite a marked adjustment in the ratio of different measures of affordability, such as house prices to earnings for example. 'Four years of broadly flat house prices would mean a fall in 20% in the ratio of house prices to average earnings. So you can get quite big adjustments in the housing market without having to see large falls in house prices.' He added: 'None of us know what will happen to house prices.' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dothemaths Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 From Dec 2008 http://www.telegraph...-their-job.html "...calculates that the number of estate agents in work has fallen from 80,000 in the summer of 2007 to 48,000 at Christmas." I'm sure they fell from there, so what 30-40,000 now? Hmm original story doesn't match. Depends on definition though, apples and oranges etc Bet you there is one two many zero's on the estimates - 5,000 new jobs to a total of 56,000. However mistakes like that play in to the required narrative which is that we are at the start of the next housing boom. It will end in tears for many but the Tories will win the next election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Bet you there is one two many zero's on the estimates - 5,000 new jobs to a total of 56,000. However mistakes like that play in to the required narrative which is that we are at the start of the next housing boom. It will end in tears for many but the Tories will win the next election. Yup pump, then dump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 From Dec 2008 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/3964909/Housing-market-crash-has-led-to-32000-estate-agents-losing-their-job.html "...calculates that the number of estate agents in work has fallen from 80,000 in the summer of 2007 to 48,000 at Christmas." I'm sure they fell from there, so what 30-40,000 now? Hmm original story doesn't match. Depends on definition though, apples and oranges etc This is the most recent breakdown of the ONS employment category that prompted the OP article. Estate agents, letting agents etc. accounted for 46% of the total employment in the Real Estate Activities sector in 2011. In June 2013, employment in the sector stood at 562K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 He must be taking lessons from Mervo the Clown. February, 2008. 'The central view in this forecast is, looking several years ahead, there's no reason to expect house prices to be markedly above where they are now. 'It's conceivable there might be falls in house prices, but broadly speaking we're looking at quite a long period now of stability in house prices, and that would enable there to be quite a marked adjustment in the ratio of different measures of affordability, such as house prices to earnings for example. 'Four years of broadly flat house prices would mean a fall in 20% in the ratio of house prices to average earnings. So you can get quite big adjustments in the housing market without having to see large falls in house prices.' He added: 'None of us know what will happen to house prices.' Four years of >4% p.a. nominal earnings growth, good one Merv. How did that pan out....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 This is the most recent breakdown of the ONS employment category that prompted the OP article. Estate agents, letting agents etc. accounted for 46% of the total employment in the Real Estate Activities sector in 2011. In June 2013, employment in the sector stood at 562K. So circa 250,000 Estate & lettings agents? 33 million workers in UK So less than 1% - so plausible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DebtFree2011 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 (edited) The Telegraph are the NEW Daily Express ... they are ramping house prices like there is no tomorrow. The Torygraph couldn't make their political agenda more apparent Edited September 11, 2013 by DebtFree2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The UK must be experiencing the first estate agent-driven recovery in economic history. I'm sure this will go well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 A lot of ex-EAs went into debt management. When that repeat-fee rip-off died out, they went into rip-off PPI commission claims. That rip-off is still going on, but the biggest rip-off of all may be calling them back home. A wonga wonga ... She's a rich girl She don't try to hide it Credits on the soles of her shoes He's a poor boy Empty as a pocket Empty as a chancer with nothing to lose. A wonga wonga . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Boom in Estate Agents........could it be that it is just another sales job, no qualifications required......where are all these these new EA coming from, jumping on the bandwagon to try their luck? school leavers or people changing career direction or older people made redundant and think they can make a few bob with commissions because everyone says the demand to buy housing is so great....mainly because people see it as an easy way to get rich without working, and who would put their money into a bank at the rates they pay for a rainy pension day today, and governments together with banks want prices to go higher and higher....plenty of money to throw at housing it seems, when in the next breath they tell us we are in austerity and belts have to be tightened, debt to be repaid......you couldn't make it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Boom in Estate Agents........could it be that it is just another sales job, no qualifications required......where are all these these new EA coming from, jumping on the bandwagon to try their luck? school leavers or people changing career direction or older people made redundant and think they can make a few bob with commissions because everyone says the demand to buy housing is so great....mainly because people see it as an easy way to get rich without working, and who would put their money into a bank at the rates they pay for a rainy pension day today, and governments together with banks want prices to go higher and higher....plenty of money to throw at housing it seems, when in the next breath they tell us we are in austerity and belts have to be tightened, debt to be repaid......you couldn't make it up. lets look at my own EA. employed this week one new PT receptionist. employed last 12 weeks...1 student and his GF on leave from Uni...leafletting and marketing. thats 2 going OFF the register come Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/11/record-number-estate-agents-housing-bubble Britain now has a record number of estate agents, official figures have revealed, underlining fears that the fledgling economic recovery is based on inflating an unsustainable housing bubble.The number of people employed in "real estate activities" increased by 9.9% between March and June (the latest month for which data are available), according to the Office for National Statistics. That was the fastest percentage increase in any sector of the economy; and a rise of 77,000 in the number of estate agents over the past year has taken the total number of people employed in the sector to 562,000, the largest number since records began in 1978. Growing confidence in the outlook for the housing market has been a key component of the economic upturn that led the chancellor, George Osborne, to claim in a speech on Monday that the UK is "turning a corner". So over half a million work in the EA business. Although I wonder how many are full time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/11/record-number-estate-agents-housing-bubble So over half a million work in the EA business. Although I wonder how many are full time? Estate agents are an example of what is wrong with the UK. The are nothing more than middlemen living off the backs of others. They offer a service sure, but it's low skilled and should be cheap. They are of little benefit to society. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Estate agents are an example of what is wrong with the UK. The are nothing more than middlemen living off the backs of others. They offer a service sure, but it's low skilled and should be cheap. They are of little benefit to society. Yes but there are involved in large transactions naturally they feel they've earned their cut of the proceeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 It's to help us achieve escape velocity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orsino Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 It's to help us achieve escape velocity. Yup. A sustainable and export-led rebalancing of the UK economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ticket2ride Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Yup. A sustainable and export-led rebalancing of the UK economy. A "For Sale" board recently appeared in our street last week. My 4 year asked where the house would go once sold. Perhaps I should've answered, "Asia?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Yup. A sustainable and export-led rebalancing of the UK economy. Export to where? All countries are trying to export to each other: Ireland, USA, Spain, France, UK, China, Australia. All we need now are some aliens to exchange some oil for the goods and services. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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