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Cml Report

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I've not seen this report referenced on HPC before, so I thought I'd put a link up.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/nv-2005-21.pdf?ref=4442

Lots of interesting info in there, seems to be pretty factual to me, so you can then argue it out all you like.

Bits of info in there to give you a flavour are:

1. CML expect house prices to stay flat for 2 years - yes 2 years !

2. Repo's in 2004 were 3,160 for the whole of 2004 - the lowest ever.

3. First six months of 2005 they were 4,640.

4. Highest ever figure for repo's was 75,000 which was in 1991 - the height of the last crash.

Looks like we are a long way off crash velocity based on the repo's rate folks.

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I've not seen this report referenced on HPC before, so I thought I'd put a link up.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/nv-2005-21.pdf?ref=4442

Lots of interesting info in there, seems to be pretty factual to me, so you can then argue it out all you like.

Bits of info in there to give you a flavour are:

1. CML expect house prices to stay flat for 2 years - yes 2 years !

2. Repo's in 2004 were 3,160 for the whole of 2004 - the lowest ever.

3. First six months of 2005 they were 4,640.

4. Highest ever figure for repo's was 75,000 which was in 1991 - the height of the last crash.

Looks like we are a long way off crash velocity based on the repo's rate folks.

I love the idea that CML's best guess as to where house prices are going in the next two years (perhaps tinged with a slight vested interest) is your top piece of factual information to bash us bears with!

:lol:

I'd agree on the repos - we're rising rapidly from low levels (like last time around, I believe).

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The amount of people getting repoed is growing.

With IR's at 4.5%

Crikey..

As the amount of people failing remains steady this reflects that some people will always fail.

When it grows you are seeing the tip of the iceberg for this reflect changing circumstances sometimes individual, and sometimes environmental.

I do not find it encouraging that more people are failing, or that we are told when this starts to accelerate that every new one you see represents another 100 in the same situation heading toward the same result.

We have been told that the next ten years are going to be very different to the last, that we are heading into hard times.

If that is the case many are heading into these times with galatic levels of debt

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Looks like we are a long way off crash velocity based on the repo's rate folks.

Not sure we are going to see 1991 levels of repossession as interest rates are likely to remain low and people will be able to service their loans.

The real problem will be that those who have borrowed and bought at the top of the market will be stuck in their starter homes/flats for life. The lucky ones might be able to build up enough equity over ten to fifteen years to move on but there will be many who will struggle to clear the debts for the rest of their lives.

As a rough example let us assume that a 30 year old buys a flat for 160,000, with a 20% deposit; this requires a £130,000 loan.

If the flat then falls by 30% in real terms then from having 30,000 equity, then now have 20,000 negative equity.

To move they must get back to 30,000 equity, if they can save 5,000 a year for 10 years (and this is a lot!) they can get back to where they were but they will always be £50,000 short of where they would otherwise be. How you are supposed to start a family in this situation is beyond me.

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I've not seen this report referenced on HPC before, so I thought I'd put a link up.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/nv-2005-21.pdf?ref=4442

Lots of interesting info in there, seems to be pretty factual to me, so you can then argue it out all you like.

Bits of info in there to give you a flavour are:

1. CML expect house prices to stay flat for 2 years - yes 2 years !

2. Repo's in 2004 were 3,160 for the whole of 2004 - the lowest ever.

3. First six months of 2005 they were 4,640.

4. Highest ever figure for repo's was 75,000 which was in 1991 - the height of the last crash.

Looks like we are a long way off crash velocity based on the repo's rate folks.

In 2004 it was still easy to MEW out of trouble. That solution is no longer available; inflate for a few years based on the rate of growth given in those numbers and you will get an idea of what we are headed for.

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Yep, the crash is bubbleing along nicely if you'll excuse the pun. 2 years before a collapse sounds about right, I'm still happy with Moneyweeks prediction of 2008 for the year that things start to fall apart. Amusingly enough with a certain Mr G Brown sitting on the throne at that point :)

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  • 342 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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