Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Does Commute Abit

Hamish Mactavish's View On The Hpc Front Page Chart

Recommended Posts

It's Friday afternoon, the week's big work job is just done. My choices:

1) start the next big job penciled in for next week - nah

2) slack off a bit early - nah (I would and I can, but mother in law is visiting :()

3) have a look at some websites not visited in a while - yeah :)

Anyway, in my surfing I've found a little nugget. Here is the technical analysis of banned ex-poster and permabull HAMISH MacTAVISH on the HPC front page graph, with a future price projection (into the next 2 decades nonetheless):

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=63062709&postcount=9

HPI.jpg

I leave others far wittier than I to comment...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

welcome back hamish .

i see that link was posted today so its not like it was a prediction in 2007 looks more like a desperate wish.

ill send the link to the boe though as reachable promised to try and reign in any new bubble.

id be interested to see on the charters what point the civil unrest and/or WW3 starts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

from that chart "Allow fundamentals to resume":lol::lol::lol:

& Posted the day before Halifax say wage inflation will constrain the mortgage and housing market :wacko:

Edited by koala_bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Artificial crash caused by mortgage rationing". Says it all really :rolleyes:

EDIT: I've just read his full post at that link - Massive Fail. The VI is strong in this one...

Edited by LC1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's Friday afternoon, the week's big work job is just done. My choices:

1) start the next big job penciled in for next week - nah

2) slack off a bit early - nah (I would and I can, but mother in law is visiting :()

3) have a look at some websites not visited in a while - yeah :)

Anyway, in my surfing I've found a little nugget. Here is the technical analysis of banned ex-poster and permabull HAMISH MacTAVISH on the HPC front page graph, with a future price projection (into the next 2 decades nonetheless):

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=63062709&postcount=9

HPI.jpg

I leave others far wittier than I to comment...

I'm loving the prediction of £10k per annum HPI from 2018 to 2033.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

welcome back hamish .

Just to clarify I am not Hamish - I don't post 300 times a day or believe the academically unsound red line on that chart means anything, let alone a 'normal' .

Any resemblance on my part to any sort of housing bull, living or dead, is purely coincidental. And offensive of anyone to suggest

This is great Friday afternoon thread material.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately he might be right about this:- the lowest house building in a century is about to meet the biggest generational bulge of FTB age people in history.

:(

For which I blame government, of course.

That "rising prices are good for" bit though, my god. I felt my gorge rising. Is he a complete idiot? There's no wealth being generated there, only credit bubbles and debtalism collapse.

Edited by EUBanana

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately he might be right about this:- the lowest house building in a century is about to meet the biggest generational bulge of FTB age people in history.

:(

For which I blame government, of course.

That "rising prices are good for" bit though, my god. I felt my gorge rising. Is he a complete idiot? There's no wealth being generated there, only credit bubbles and debtalism collapse.

Don't forget the "biggest bulge in people wanting to downsize" too. This is from 2010:

350px-Uk.pop.pramid.2010.jpg

I wonder if older people might soften their stance on greenbelt development if the stuff being built is suitable for downsizers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The VI is strong in this one...

Sorry to be a bit dim. But what does VI stand for? I've only seen it on this site and its obviously something to do with being a property bull but has it some deeper meaning? Where did it come from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to be a bit dim. But what does VI stand for? I've only seen it on this site and its obviously something to do with being a property bull but has it some deeper meaning? Where did it come from?

Virtual Idiot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to be a bit dim. But what does VI stand for? I've only seen it on this site and its obviously something to do with being a property bull but has it some deeper meaning? Where did it come from?

....VI means a vested interest; for example, I am an estate agent and have a couple of highly leveraged buy to let properties.....therefore I have a personal interest that house prices and rents continue to rise forever, I want a continuous flow of free income and free growth.....I am that selfish I don't give a damn about anyone else except myself and feel very smug about my wise investment I obtained with your money....bet you wish you were me. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and from the chart it looks like he's identified the exact bottom of the crash - which is pretty much here and now.

So everything being claimed by the government is true. Plain sailing for them from now on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do miss miss his insane logic. Who needs a productive economy when the magic house prices can make us all wealthy.

He's completely qualified to be a govt advisor.

or an estate agent...failing that...a village idiot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am an estate agent and have a couple of highly leveraged buy to let properties.....therefore I have a personal interest that house prices and rents continue to rise forever, I want a continuous flow of free income and free growth.....I am that selfish I don't give a damn about anyone else except myself and feel very smug about my wise investment I obtained with your money....bet you wish you were me. ;)

Hamish, I would never of recognised you!

(only joking... You're winkie, he's w@nker)

Edited by TheNoSnowMan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:wacko: Scarey but we can't rule anything out from where we are now. The amount of QE/FLS/compensation that will be required to bring all the debt to some kind of manageable level might well have prices follow such a graph profile.

Depends how wildly GDP and inflation indexes can be massaged and distorted in the process. We are already experiencing ~0% GDP figure whilst officially borrowing 120Bn each year, by using shenanigans exposed on HPC with inclusion of finger in the air imputed rent rises and lower than real inflation deflators in the calculations, rewriting history to remove the double dip recessions etc.

We are in a very strange place financially broke!

Edited by DarkHorseWaits

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His arguments might have been nonsense but his instincts were spot on- he grasped the fact that the PTB would do anything to avoid a serious house price crash- help to buy is exactly the kind of intervention he predicted.

Edited by wonderpup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to clarify I am not Hamish - I don't post 300 times a day or believe the academically unsound red line on that chart means anything, let alone a 'normal' .

Any resemblance on my part to any sort of housing bull, living or dead, is purely coincidental. And offensive of anyone to suggest

This is great Friday afternoon thread material.......

I have taken HPC to task for that before, but unfortunately, HPC simply takes the graph (with mathematically nonsensical red line) from Nationwide.

Why Nationwide, a mutual Building Society, continually publishes a 'trend' red line that overstates house price inflation, I leave you to work out.

Something to do with all their members money tied up in assets I guess, and losing sight of how such hyping of house prices goes against the primary purpose of a building society - to help people buy their own homes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Someone had better tell Hamish that HPI isn't beneficial to retirees, because the same inflationary pressures that cause HPI also both drag the economy and investment in industry, and destroy life savings through inflation.

The only beneficiaries of inflation are, ultimately, governments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His arguments might have been nonsense but his instincts were spot on- he grasped the fact that the PTB would do anything to avoid a serious house price crash- help to buy is exactly the kind of intervention he predicted.

Its still failed in many parts of the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   211 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.