Purchase Managers Index Soars To 7 Year High

[crashmonitor]

Has Carney let slip the reins.

The economist on the Today programme (yesterday) indicated so and thought these figures were consistent with 1.25% GDP for Q3.

This article suggest 1% and 4% annualised.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/04/strong-services-pmi-uk-growth-europe

[crashmonitor]

And the reining in bit for Carney.........

http://qz.com/121269/the-bank-of-england-may-need-to-rein-in-the-british-economy-sooner-than-it-thought/

I guess the crowd are singing 'It's all gone quiet over there'''....because I can't remember seeing Ed Balls for a few weeks now.

Edited September 6, 2013 by crashmonitor

[koala_bear]

Has Carney let slip the reins.

The economist on the Today programme (yesterday) indicated so and thought these figures were consistent with 1.25% GDP for Q3.

This article suggest 1% and 4% annualised.

http://www.theguardi...k-growth-europe

Too much slack in the economy for that to correlate to 5% GDP rise, pencil in half that at this rate.

[Bloo Loo]

120bn deficit spending will add to GDP...lets just hope the private sector isnt falling at a rate to counter it..otherwise the GDP will look bad, calling for more spending.....as if Austerity is the GDP....its not, of course.

[zugzwang]

Too much slack in the economy for that to correlate to 5% GDP rise, pencil in half that at this rate.

Not sure there's much slack in the economy, but I think 4% growth is plausible, over a couple quarters anyway. The credit impluse (acceleration) is what generates GDP growth. We know there's been a spike in mortgage lending since HTB was introduced in April/May, especially to FTBs, and Osborne's bogus austerity is still rolling out by the truckload. Maintaining that acceleration is the difficult part. Perhaps that's why HTB is being delivered in two phases?

.

Edited September 6, 2013 by zugzwang

[Ash4781]

Strange. Also a massive widening in the trade deficit for July. Exports down to Europe but I guess it must be the volatility in monthly figures. A few high value items?

[koala_bear]

Strange. Also a massive widening in the trade deficit for July. Exports down to Europe but I guess it must be the volatility in monthly figures. A few high value items?

I thought that it was strange as well - oil production shut downs being the first check?

Certainly doesn't match PMI message.

[Ash4781]

I thought that it was strange as well - oil production shut downs being the first check?

Certainly doesn't match PMI message.

Yeah on the 5live the analyst was also confused but cautioned on the monthly figures.

Time to have a look : ) http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_324586.pdf

[XswampyX]

Yeah on the 5live the analyst was also confused but cautioned on the monthly figures.

Time to have a look : ) http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_324586.pdf

Good lord! Talk about double speak.....

The deficit on trade in goods increased £0.3 billion to £26.8 billion in the three months to July

2013 from £26.5 billion in the three months to April 2013. Exports of goods in the three months

to July 2013 increased to £77.4 billion and compared to the previous year, increased by 1.6%.

Imports of goods also increased over the same period to a record high of £104.2 billion and

compared to the previous year, increased by 3.1%.

This is double plus good?

Jul 2012 = -1.0 Billion

Jul 2013 = -3.1 Billion

It's only increased by 210%!

So less is more, and -3.1 is less than -1.0 so all is good in the world......

[koala_bear]

Yeah on the 5live the analyst was also confused but cautioned on the monthly figures.

Time to have a look : ) http://www.ons.gov.u...1778_324586.pdf

Hmmm

One off Data quality caveat of the front page.

Down on last month but a lot better since the start of the year

Key changes are:

Lots more non -EU imports

Services surplus down

Exports down.

Imports at all time high (well hidden)

Other observations:

All exports except Oil down (so not the usual favourite hiccup ) and down big in a number of categories

Aircraft (and components) exports down massively (787 components and engines supply chain issue?) Down £320m on month

(aircraft and broken out in the US stats due to MoM variation)

Car imports up. (mostly germany?)

Silver imports massively down

As some data is reported by medium /large firms I wonder if the relevant reporting staff in finance were on hols so filed late?

1 BA A380 delivery and few smaller airbus more than the month before

coal/ gas imports down

Export tonnage (where applicable) down 10% on june - lots of country not buying stuff or pre-emptive for august factory shutdowns?

Biggest % change is in reduced consumer goods exports (alarm bell?)

Imports of capital goods trending upwards

Export goods inflation hight than import goods inflation...

All in all a very odd set of stats

Edited September 6, 2013 by koala_bear

[crashmonitor]

The only thing i can't get my head around is that the Purchasing Managers Index is the highest since December 2006, then it mentions the all sector PMI being the highest since 1998....what's the difference?

[billybong]

The actual press release that the OP's guardian link referred to seems to be the one below.

http://

www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/291fe2a94ee040bcb216d84676428f92

with charts.

Edited September 7, 2013 by billybong

[righttoleech]

Strange. Also a massive widening in the trade deficit for July. Exports down to Europe but I guess it must be the volatility in monthly figures. A few high value items?

We don't make our own TAT anymore. Chinese vases, (not Ming), for HTB twigs.

[billybong]

From the PMI charts it seems that when the indices get to the current sort of level it tends to be a peak and is quickly followed by a rapid decline.

For instance there was a peak in PMIs just before the economic collapse in 2007/2008.

It'll be interesting to see what the press release PMI report will be if a rapid decline does happen. Likely it'll not be reported.

Edited September 7, 2013 by billybong

[zugzwang]

From the PMI charts it seems that when the indices get to the current sort of level it tends to be a peak and is quickly followed by a rapid decline.

For instance there was a peak in PMIs just before the economic collapse in 2007/2008.

It'll be interesting to see what the press release PMI report will be if a rapid decline does happen. Likely it'll not be reported.

PMI numbers are dependent on GDP growth. GDP growth is dependent on constant or increasing credit acceleration. In an economy already saturated with debt, i.e. the UK, credit creation is difficult to sustain. The moment that the change in the rate of credit creation slows, GDP goes negative and the PMI numbers fall sharply. PMI activity is simply mirroring changes in credit acceleration.

See for instance the correlation between US private demand and the credit impulse, annual data: