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hedi

Have We Finally Reached The Back To Normal Point

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it seems that its back to normal in the housing market, interest only loans , ray boulger on the tv, prices going up every month, increasing multiples on salaries, a huge drop in people on this site,location location location is back, its go go go.

as with all crashes they never happen when they are expected, and for years now the housing market was expected to crash, especially here on this site. but lets face it ,it hasn t .

it will happen, but not as we know it, jim.

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it seems that its back to normal in the housing market, interest only loans , ray boulger on the tv, prices going up every month, increasing multiples on salaries, a huge drop in people on this site,location location location is back, its go go go.

as with all crashes they never happen when they are expected, and for years now the housing market was expected to crash, especially here on this site. but lets face it ,it hasn t .

it will happen, but not as we know it, jim.

....so just because you know that something is costing more than it should do....does that mean you have to buy it? ;)

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It does seem to be 'back to normal'. I'm listening to R4 as I type, and it's all about there being growing confidence in the economy and being out of the recession :rolleyes:

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We had a big crash in the north east.Many terraces falling from £100k to £50k.Ex council 3 bed semis from around £110k to £70k.The better areas/houses still saw 20% down nominal from 2004 (we topped ten and flatlined until 2007) so huge taking in inflation.

We seem to be creeping back up a bit though as houses seem to be selling again ,though it could be the falls have simply stopped.

The south east once again seems removed from reality.However the job situation in the NE is shocking and almost all new jobs are NMW and 0 hours.I cant see the north joining in this great new HPI.

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The south east once again seems removed from reality.However the job situation in the NE is shocking and almost all new jobs are NMW and 0 hours.I cant see the north joining in this great new HPI.

This is the bit I don't understand, so much of the SE wealth comes from financial services that one might expect this area to be hit the hardest but instead it seems to be decoupling further from the rest of the country.

Surely this can't just be a "prime London investment" effect so what is it? Is it vast amounts of immigration into London pushing existing inhabitants into the suburbs? If so who is actually paying for all this and how?

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Of course its back to normal, the constant thrum of government men kickstarting everything in sight for the last 5 years, and still hard at it.

kickstarting is the new normal.

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it seems that its back to normal in the housing market, interest only loans , ray boulger on the tv, prices going up every month, increasing multiples on salaries, a huge drop in people on this site,location location location is back, its go go go.

as with all crashes they never happen when they are expected, and for years now the housing market was expected to crash, especially here on this site. but lets face it ,it hasn t .

it will happen, but not as we know it, jim.

How much time do the media spend talking about sales volumes? Let`s face it, everyone can`t get "their price", the wall of money rushing into property is not coming back.

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I think we are in the "Bull Trap"/"Return to Normal" phase of the graph. It's difficult, with all the manipulation, to predict the duration of this phase but I expect house prices to be 30% to 40% (nominal) lower by the end of the decade.

asset-bubble-phases.jpg

post-11769-0-72736900-1377000674_thumb.j

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Who created that phases of an asset bubble graph and why is it referred to like gospel on here?

Too many variables to predict the shape and style and phases of this bubble/ crash or whatever it is

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Who created that phases of an asset bubble graph and why is it referred to like gospel on here?

Too many variables to predict the shape and style and phases of this bubble/ crash or whatever it is

I've seen it happen with house prices, Dotcom shares, classic cars, you name it, it always always follows a similar path. The shape and duration of the phases varies but the end result is always the same.

The greater fools always get sucked in towards the end of the cycle.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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This is the bit I don't understand, so much of the SE wealth comes from financial services that one might expect this area to be hit the hardest but instead it seems to be decoupling further from the rest of the country.

Surely this can't just be a "prime London investment" effect so what is it? Is it vast amounts of immigration into London pushing existing inhabitants into the suburbs? If so who is actually paying for all this and how?

Successive UK govts have borrowed and spent the thick end of a trillion quid holding up the UK economy and by proxy the UK housing market in the last five years. Most of the big ticket items have been located in London and the South East i.e. banks, Olympics, Crossrail etc.

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Who created that phases of an asset bubble graph and why is it referred to like gospel on here?

Too many variables to predict the shape and style and phases of this bubble/ crash or whatever it is

Look at the bottom left on the graph and it says who created it.

Also read the book 'Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' for many examples of it in action.

Edited by SpectrumFX

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Look at the bottom left on the graph and it says who created it.

Also read the book 'Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' for many examples of it in action.

But not Tulipmania, that was made up for that very book.

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But not Tulipmania, that was made up for that very book.

Gordon Ghecko has this chart on his apartment wall in Wall Street 2

51hGLQmoe2L.jpg

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Of course its back to normal, the constant thrum of government men kickstarting everything in sight for the last 5 years, and still hard at it.

kickstarting is the new normal.

Crucially - you can actually propel a motorbike using the kickstart - slowly, tediously, and very uncomfortably.

Much easier to let the economy engine do its thing.

Edited by chronyx

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I agree, we are at that "return to normal" point on the graph.

It would be so easy to capitulate to the siren song of the media but somehow I just don't think we are back to anything I can call normal.

We have been renting over three years now and even my little daughter of 3 hates this house; "I want a new bigger house house Daddy" she says.

I grit my teeth.

Not yet baby.

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But not Tulipmania, that was made up for that very book.

Made up? That's a bit strong. Wikipedia has it that his account that the bubble was inexplicable has been challenged:

Mackay's account of inexplicable mania was unchallenged, and mostly unexamined, until the 1980s.[35] However, research into tulip mania since then, especially by proponents of the efficient market hypothesis,[8] who are more skeptical of speculative bubbles in general, suggests that his story was incomplete and inaccurate......There is no dispute that prices for tulip bulb contracts rose and then fell in 1636–37, but even a dramatic rise and fall in prices does not necessarily mean that an economic or speculative bubble developed and then burst. For tulip mania to have qualified as an economic bubble, the price of tulip bulbs would need to have become unhinged from the intrinsic value of the bulbs. Modern economists have advanced several possible reasons for why the rise and fall in prices may not have constituted a bubble.

wikipedia

So Mackay's account was unchallenged until some VI economists came along who didn't like his account because it didn't match their pet theory. They don't disagree that prices rose and fell dramatically [because of some actual contemporaneous evidence and stuff] but are putting forward other 'possible reasons' why the stupid prices might have represented the intrinsic value of the bulbs.

I'm convinced. Go long tulips. Prices can only go up from here!

You've got to love the shear brass neck of economists. In proper science when the theory doesn't match the facts you change the theory, In economics you change the facts, or at least obfuscate and suppress them.

Edited by SpectrumFX

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This time and even though the base rate is still at the crisis level of the lowest level in 300 years the UK economy has even missed out the green shoots phase and has gone straight into the full out boom phase.

Pretty much in the space of a couple of months.

That's if the various pundits etc are to be believed.

Edited by billybong

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I agree, we are at that "return to normal" point on the graph.

It would be so easy to capitulate to the siren song of the media but somehow I just don't think we are back to anything I can call normal.

We have been renting over three years now and even my little daughter of 3 hates this house; "I want a new bigger house house Daddy" she says.

I grit my teeth.

Not yet baby.

Well rent a bigger house then?

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On the Radio 4 Today programme this morning, early interest rate rises were being talked about as a given, early 2015 at the very latest. II can see that being a bit of a game-changer.

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