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gruffydd

House Price Predictions?

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I'm calling 20% plus yearly gains over next 3 years in UK, at least. For some reason thinking 30% may be possible next year. Time will tell I guess but am so glad I'm not residing in UK these days!

Edited by gruffydd

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I'm calling 20% plus yearly gains over next 3 years in UK, at least. For some reason thinking 30% may be possible next year. Time will tell I guess but am so glad I'm not residing in UK these days!

If that happens, we can kiss goodbye to all productive jobs in the UK.

UK workers are so expensive to employ because of our insane housing costs, nothing but bubble related jobs will remain.

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If that happens, we can kiss goodbye to all productive jobs in the UK.

UK workers are so expensive to employ because of our insane housing costs, nothing but bubble related jobs will remain.

Why do you need UK workers? There will be plenty of Romanians pouring in competing for low wages. The will be quite happy to share sheds and low quality accommodation.

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I'm calling 20% plus yearly gains over next 3 years in UK, at least. For some reason thinking 30% may be possible next year. Time will tell I guess but am so glad I'm not residing in UK these days!

definitely...its happen the last two years. asking prices have gone up ten percent a year.

sale prices have dropped ho thankfully.

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Why do you need UK workers? There will be plenty of Romanians pouring in competing for low wages. The will be quite happy to share sheds and low quality accommodation.

Dead right. They don't actually have to come here for many tech jobs either and places like Bulgaria have some of best programmers in Europe. Hey, ho.

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If that happens, we can kiss goodbye to all productive jobs in the UK.

UK workers are so expensive to employ because of our insane housing costs, nothing but bubble related jobs will remain.

The thing is wages aren't going up because of immigration and gloablisation/tech changes... it's just a spiv economy and the government's given up pretending otherwise.

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Why do you need UK workers? There will be plenty of Romanians pouring in competing for low wages. The will be quite happy to share sheds and low quality accommodation.

What you describe is the same process that causes the loss of jobs to China etc.

Migrants are temporarily cheaper, and therefore can be employed doing those jobs that cannot be sent overseas. I.e. healthcare, catering and hospitality, farm labourers etc.

All due to the monetary system driving up bubble house prices. Sadly, our politicians haven't figured this out yet.

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Since supply and demand do not come into the equation as there is basically no supply and high demand.

The ONLY thing driving the market is credit.

It should be possible to calculate house prices over the next 12 months given that we know previous rates of house price inflation based on 'affordability' and lending criteria.

I will knock something up later today that we can have a play with.

The inputs will be:

- Average repayment interest rate

- Average LTV ratio

- Average wage

- Average deposit requirement

Output = average house price at any point in time given that the average property can fetch what the average person can borrow.

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Average over the UK, flat prices.....higher costs inc interest, CT, heating, water, and insurance in some areas....overall.....owning a home costs increasing....value mainly flat or depreciating depending. ;)

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Well, it really will be a miracle if britain doesn't at some point, need a bail out or in. Have house prices risen in countries that have been bailed?

Economic miracles in this country have always been based on cheap money.

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If you were talking about asking prices I would say you had a chance of being somewhere near right

But I have been watching the asking price increase`s around my way and they have resulted in very few sales at the inflated prices (other than the SSTC`s that fall through) not even at the bottom end of the market and this is with the most blatant and endless ramping for the best part of a twelve month

On an anecdotal note I was talking to a mate who works for one of the state owned banks on a regional level ,they are in the marketing department (correlating stats) from what they are saying , there is very little appetite for credit out there ,their take on HTB is it`s a carrot on a stick which has had very little effect so far ,

At best I reckon a small increase is the best they are going to achieve from HTB ,I think the price of the typical FTB place look so far out of reach for them, they have simply given up all hope,HTB is confirmation that the housing market in the UK is nothing but a pyramid scheme ,TPTB are desperatly trying to underpin the foundations of the said pyrimid

But there again I could be completely wrong which would not be the first time

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If you were talking about asking prices I would say you had a chance of being somewhere near right

But I have been watching the asking price increase`s around my way and they have resulted in very few sales at the inflated prices (other than the SSTC`s that fall through) not even at the bottom end of the market and this is with the most blatant and endless ramping for the best part of a twelve month

On an anecdotal note I was talking to a mate who works for one of the state owned banks on a regional level ,they are in the marketing department (correlating stats) from what they are saying , there is very little appetite for credit out there ,their take on HTB is it`s a carrot on a stick which has had very little effect so far ,

At best I reckon a small increase is the best they are going to achieve from HTB ,I think the price of the typical FTB place look so far out of reach for them, they have simply given up all hope,HTB is confirmation that the housing market in the UK is nothing but a pyramid scheme ,TPTB are desperatly trying to underpin the foundations of the said pyrimid

But there again I could be completely wrong which would not be the first time

I don't think you are wrong....I don't think you are far off the right track. ;)

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Average wages don't matter. The ones looking to buy now that credit is available through the government throwing money at the problem are the young professionals that have seen 10%+ pay rises since 2008.

Take out the people who are not looking to buy from the equation (young Polish pea pickers and 60yr old plodders) and you see a totally different wage inflation picture due to promotions etc.

There is a hell of a lot of pent up demand with big bank accounts driving this problem and the government just chucked a can of petrol on the fire.

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Average wages don't matter. The ones looking to buy now that credit is available through the government throwing money at the problem are the young professionals that have seen 10%+ pay rises since 2008.

Take out the people who are not looking to buy from the equation (young Polish pea pickers and 60yr old plodders) and you see a totally different wage inflation picture due to promotions etc.

There is a hell of a lot of pent up demand with big bank accounts driving this problem and the government just chucked a can of petrol on the fire.

Aye, and then you woke up and realised you were still in NE? :lol:

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Average wages don't matter. The ones looking to buy now that credit is available through the government throwing money at the problem are the young professionals that have seen 10%+ pay rises since 2008.

Take out the people who are not looking to buy from the equation (young Polish pea pickers and 60yr old plodders) and you see a totally different wage inflation picture due to promotions etc.

There is a hell of a lot of pent up demand with big bank accounts driving this problem and the government just chucked a can of petrol on the fire.

Care to name any activity sectors [1] that are seeing "wage inflation... due to promotions"?

[1] Other than public sector jobs.

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I think we may see 5% pa for a year or too before mad government schemes run out an prices drop back again.

We see prices fall and then FLS starts and holds them up, then help to sell comes in and pushes them up a bit. Once these run out its back down again until the next crazy scheme by some idiotic short termist government desperate to keep the voting boomer majority happy.

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Why do you need UK workers? There will be plenty of Romanians pouring in competing for low wages. The will be quite happy to share sheds and low quality accommodation.

You're behind the times. Romanians have followed Poles in becoming too expensive.

It's now Croatians taking up the slack.

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