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To The Apostates Of Swansea

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This little jewel was on back in June for 255k. In one fell swoop it's dropped 50K. Now the vendors may well think they've not experienced a Crash , but sure as hell , the body work on their distorted perception of reality has been severely dented.

Swansea is very polarised with the affluent west ( Fecal Impaction/C. Zeta J . have a house there... I know, good reason to move) and poor east, with the Marina stuck in the middle.

This is a town with generally poor quality housing stock available, few well paid jobs, a vastly overpriced market which is sticking because of a small number of estate agents who , impo habitually overprice and many owners who have turned (they think)95k to 250K in 5 years and who know it would take them 150 years to save that sort of money from salary income. Virtual tours are a great indicator of the current disparity or disconnect between value of contents and the "real" worth of the house. (You don't normally have contents worth 20K in a house that really is worth 500k)

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The green bit next to that flat is a piece of land that the Council has been hoping someone would build on for the past 20 odd years. It finally looks like it is going to happen so you really do not want to live next door to a huge building site for 18 months do you.

There was an interesting two adverts in last night's Property Post. On page 11 Bryant homes were advertising the hosues they are building near Zeta Jones' house in Mumbles as being from 235,950 to 425,950 for 3 & 4 bedroom houses.

If you go to the last but one page there is a small private advert, I assume from a private owner or investor, who is ALREADY selling one of the 3 bedroom ones for 230K!

Hang on, that is 5K below what Bryant homes are advertising them at? OK, let's assume he/she got a discount on buying this home but... it has been the case in Swansea for 4 years now that all the new homes have gone for at least the asking price if not more such has BEEN the demand.

Even if he/she got a discount - let's be generous - then they are still obviously so keen to sell that they are under-cutting the main builders' own advertised prices.

I think that says an awful lot about what is happening in the Swansea housing market currently.

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The green bit next to that flat is a piece of land that the Council has been hoping someone would build on for the past 20 odd years. It finally looks like it is going to happen so you really do not want to live next door to a huge building site for 18 months do you.

There was an interesting two adverts in last night's Property Post. On page 11 Bryant homes were advertising the hosues they are building near Zeta Jones' house in Mumbles as being from 235,950 to 425,950 for 3 & 4 bedroom houses.

If you go to the last but one page there is a small private advert, I assume from a private owner or investor, who is ALREADY selling one of the 3 bedroom ones for 230K!

Hang on, that is 5K below what Bryant homes are advertising them at? OK, let's assume he/she got a discount on buying this home but... it has been the case in Swansea for 4 years now that all the new homes have gone for at least the asking price if not more such has BEEN the demand.

Even if he/she got a discount - let's be generous - then they are still obviously so keen to sell that they are under-cutting the main builders' own advertised prices.

I think that says an awful lot about what is happening in the Swansea housing market currently.

Good friends of mine are due to complete on one of the 4 bed Bryant houses at Mumbles Point in the next few weeks. I believe the price agreed was 300k+ for the smallest 4 bed and they had to queue allnight to get it. They were offered a 10k profit from somebody wanting to buy the plot the following week but turned it down assuming that prices would continue to rise.

I have given up trying to dissuade them from completing since they have both set their hearts on the lifestyle offered by the surrounding area and still believe they are getting a bargain.

Bryant are now offering p/e on some of these plots but are yet to release some of the £400k+ larger houses. I am guessing that some large discounts could be negotiated already and in the future this estate might be a testament to the peak of the market in Swansea West.

That Marina flat if it is the one above Chris D'arcys old office is very pokey and provides very little storage. Add to that the plans to build opposite and I wouldn't pay £150k for it in the current climate.

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This little jewel was on back in June for 255k. In one fell swoop it's dropped 50K. Now the vendors may well think they've not experienced a Crash , but sure as hell , the body work on their distorted perception of reality has been severely dented.

Swansea is very polarised with the affluent west ( Fecal Impaction/C. Zeta J . have a house there... I know, good reason to move) and poor east, with the Marina stuck in the middle.

This is a town with generally poor quality housing stock available, few well paid jobs, a vastly overpriced market which is sticking because of a small number of estate agents who , impo habitually overprice and many owners who have turned (they think)95k to 250K in 5 years and who know it would take them 150 years to save that sort of money from salary income. Virtual tours are a great indicator of the current disparity or disconnect between value of contents and the "real" worth of the house. (You don't normally have contents worth 20K in a house that really is worth 500k)

Looks like the guard tower to the prison next door.

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I wouldn't pay 80K for it.

Tulip, you are quite right . I wouldn't pay 80k for it either. But I see mid terraced houses in Sandfields and Brynmill on for 175k !! Who are these retards?? Reinforced of course by the antics of 1 or 2 EA's that you and I know the names of only too well.

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Back in 2000 those Brynmill terraces were going for about 50 to 60K and as low as 45K. In 2001 they suddenly shot up to 75Kish, then to 90K and ever upwards to 200K.

I am refusing to buy one. I was pretty close to being able to buy one 4 years ago for cash - no mortgage - but now I would have a big mortgage around my neck for a house that I know is not worth it and, worse, that the people in the same road paid only a fraction of the price just a few years back. I worked damn hard to save up my deposit and I am just not prepared to waste it on the rubbish in Swansea.

I still have no doubt that come the crash Swansea will suffer big time with HP drops, IMPO, of at least 40 or 50 percent.

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I was out for my morning cycle ride today - glorious sunshine down here - and decided to pop into one of my local EAs in, for those of you who know Swansea, Walter Road. This is where most of the EAs' main offices in Swansea are.

This particular EA chain is one that I personally think hugely over-values HPs in the area but then they all do don't they. However, by chance the EA 'on duty' this morning was one a chap who, back in 2003 advised me and my then partner not to buy in the then current market. At the time he felt that there was going to be a crash and that, as we were locals, it was not a good time for locals buying in the area. He told us then that much of the property being sold was being bought up by people from outside of Wales.

Anyhow, after passing the usual plesantries, etc, and him asking me if I was still looking, myself telling him that I had no intention of buying till the crash, etc, we got down to the nitty gritty.

He told me, quite matter of fact, that the market in Swansea was dead - "totally dead!" .

He said that it was now "stalemate", that there were very few buyers in the market but a "vast amount of property is just waiting to be sold" and that "prices are simply OTT for Swansea". He said he "felt sick" when "...every now and then a we get local young couples would coming in desperate to buy and they are taking out huge mortgages on places that we couldn't give away a few years back". He said that he had tried to dissuade a few but "many just want to get on the property ladder no matter what".

He told me that the money from London and the South East had dried up with many people he had sold to from that part of the World in the last 3 years now trying to sell up and get out. However, he said no one is prepared to reduce their prices to a realistic level. I commented that many of them could not afford to reduce as they had paid way over the odds to which he agreed.

I asked him what was needed to rectify this and he said that the market would not get moving again until interest rates rose and people had to sell or risk losing everything. I commented about how there were now so many properties to let in Swansea and that rents being asked were more than Cardiff Bay. He simply said that it was because people were desperate to have their mortgages paid and can't afford to ask less than what they are.

I also asked him about the new SA1 development and he said that it has been handled badly in that, again, people from outside of Wales had bought up flats in bulk last year and the year before, driven the prices up and now no locals can consider buying there as the "what's on offer do not justify the prices asked". He said that "it (SA1 development) was in danger of becoming another Swansea white elephant" and "I'll be surprised if it is ever completed". I made a comment about how it was in the local paper this week that some local businessmen were seeking permission to open a nightclub next to one of the few completed block of flats and the EA laughed "Typical Swansea, they try and attract professions, expect them to pay a quarter of a million for a one bed flat and then they put a night club and a kebab shop next you!".

I asked him when he thought that I should consider buying and, of course, he said "when prices fall" but then went on to say that he could see no end to things at the moment as "everyone seems in limbo". I asked him what the other EAs in the area were feeling and he said that "everyone is in the same boat" to which I commented that it was time that EAs started driving down the prices and making sellers aware that the market had changed.

He said that they could not do this for two reasons - firstly, people will not accept that prices should be lower and will not until something makes them accept that. Secondly, he said that it was the old chestnut of if they do not give a high vaulation to a seller then the seller will go around all the EAs until they find one who gives them the valuation they want.

He did tell me though about one woman who came to him initially back in the Summer, got a valuation off him and point blank refused it. She then went around several other EAs all of whom apparently gave her lower valuations which ended up with her coming back to him in August asking him if he would put the house on the market for his original valuation. By this time he felt that the house had fallen another 15K and he told her that he would only put it on the market for that new price. He said the house has now, after some heated conversations, been on sale with him since August at the new price and so far not one viewer has even asked for details of the property - he pointed it out to me, nice detached house in the Sketty area of Swansea West. He confided that it was effectively two and a half times what it had last sold for in 2001 and "I don't think it will sell until it goes back to that price"! WOW!!!

This chap has been an EA in Swansea for as long as I can remember. He has been through the last bubble and crash and knows full well that people like me are his bread and butter long-term. His honesty is the main reason why, when the crash comes and I am seriously looking to buy, he is the EA that is top of my list to find me my home - assuming his chain is still in business!

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Hi - I know this is a bit off topic but can any one help?

My OH is looking to change jobs (promotion) and the are a number of jobs he could go for. Personally I want to hold out for a post in Scotland but a really good job opportunity has come up in Swansea.

I am looking at the area on rightmove (know nothing about swansea) to see if it is financially viable to go there (he hasn't actually got the job yet but I am one of lifes planners)

Can anyone tell me the best and worst areas in Swansea (or communting distance to swansea). I am especially interested in what areas to avoid.

Thanks

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Hi - I know this is a bit off topic but can any one help?

My OH is looking to change jobs (promotion) and the are a number of jobs he could go for. Personally I want to hold out for a post in Scotland but a really good job opportunity has come up in Swansea.

I am looking at the area on rightmove (know nothing about swansea) to see if it is financially viable to go there (he hasn't actually got the job yet but I am one of lifes planners)

Can anyone tell me the best and worst areas in Swansea (or communting distance to swansea). I am especially interested in what areas to avoid.

Thanks

Commuting distance to Swansea will obviously depend where you start from ;)

Cardiff = 42 miles

Bristol = 85 miles

London = 170 miles

Swansea East has cheaper property and is far more accessible than the affluent Swansea West

Areas to avoid in Swansea East - most places (excluding Glais, Ynystawe) are within a mile of a dodgy

council estate.

Areas to avoid in Swansea West - Some parts of Penllergaer, West Cross for same reason.

Hope this helps.

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Anywhere in Swansea West is pretty nice.

You might want to avoid Dylan Thomas's haunts of Brynmill and The Uplands but then many professionals like it as it is next to the beach and has 3 major parks in the area.

Other areas to consider:

Sketty

Killay

Upper Killay

Dunvant

Three Crosses

Gowerton

West Cross

Blackpill

Derwen Fawr

Tycoch

The Mumbles

Newton

Langland

Caswell

Bishopton

Pennard

The Mayals

Norton

All of the above on within 10 minutes of the city centre and 10 minutes of the Gower if not on the gateway to the Gower. There is a mix of old and new but prices have soared in the past 4 years to ridiculous levels.

A lot of professionals have moved out of the above area of late because HPs have risen so high. Up and coming areas are places like Gorseinon and Loughor - although they have some pretty bad areas here - as both are close to the River Loughor and within a 5 minute car journey of TWO out of town shopping centres. Swansea City centre itself has died off and is dirty.

Again, re the River Loughor, there are some beautiful houses going up on Llanelli waterfront which are a fraction of the price in Swansea and there is a nice amosphere down there. It is a 15 minute drive to Swansea and one of the out of town shopping centres is on your doorstep as is the beach, a lake and other attractions. I would consider buying there but I am Swansea born and bred and living in Llanelli sticks in my throat and the people have a certain 'getting used to'... but I have been considering it so that says something. I was impressed by some mock Boston wooden houses built right on the sea front... smaller than the real thing but very nice indeed.

If I were going to buy today I would buy at the Cross Hands end of the M4 - anywhere from Hendy/Pontardulais down to Cross Hands and about half a dozen villages just off that junction - 48/49 I think. There are some simply amazing houses built in that area by local builders. The size, quality is amazing and prices, even now, are much less than Swansea. You should take a look at the houses in FFOREST and LLANNON and LLANGADOG, voted the best village in Wales yet again, has some amazing houses. This area is an area of villages all within 10 minutes of the motorway and then 10 minutes to Swansea or Llanelli or about 30 to Carmarthen. It is lovely and I wish I had moved down there 5 years ago.

I would be interested to know what job your hubby might have - just curious to know what is going on. Is it one of the Fujitsu jobs at the DVLA? If you let me know then I can advise better on where a good location to look is... plus I am nosey! :rolleyes:

EAs with websites

John Francis

Dawsons

Simpson Evans

Ashley Jones & Partners

Rees Richards & Partners

One final point - do not assume that Swansea is cheap. It is not. It is very expensive for reasons that totally escape those of us who live here. Local salaries do not justify the prices. If you enjoy culture then, sadly, Swansea is not the place and I would tell you to opt for Cardiff and a 70 minute commute during rush hour. Another place to consider is halfway between Swansea and Cardiff there is the Vale of Glamorgan with villages like Llantwitt Major, Cowbridge and maany more.

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I would be interested to know what job your hubby might have - just curious to know what is going on. Is it one of the Fujitsu jobs at the DVLA? If you let me know then I can advise better on where a good location to look is... plus I am nosey!

Nothing as interesting I am afraid. He's an academic - so looking at Swansea at the moment. We will probably move over the next couple of years as there are better opportunities in other parts of the country than where we are now. We will just keep looking for openings in different places.

There's a potential opening at Swansea but we may wait and see if something comes up elsewhere. Unfortunately most universities are also near cities (with there high house prices). Swansea, although it has gone up in price, is still relatively affordable compared to some other cities.

Big thnaks for your advice - it was really helpful.

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Best of luck with your hubby getting the job - fingers crossed. I live about a mile from the University in Brynmill and it really is studentville now. It used to be a lovely residential area and is the area, along with the Uplands, that Dylan Thomas wrote about. Most of the properties have been gutted to turn into BTLs but if you get one thaty has not then you can get a beautiful Victorian or Edwardian home which is within walking distance of the parks, the Uni, the beach and the city centre. Parking is a nightmare.

I doubt you would want to go further out but all the other areas I mentioned in Swansea West would be suitable. You could have a town lifestyle or go a mile or two further West and have a country lifestyle. There is a glut of property to rent in these areas and I know prices are well haggable.

I think you might be surprised just how expensive HPs in Swansea are. I was in an EA office a few weeks ago and a lady academic who had just got a post at Swansea Uni was in there looking to buy. She had 150K cash and the only thing that the EA could offer her in Swansea West were ex Council houses.

All the best.

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I 'like' the flat rentals in the City - 750 PCM for a flat in the Marina! Doh! They are forever advertised month after month in the local paper and no one seems to have twigged that they are simply way over-priced.

Seems like half of Swansea is now up to rent but the rents are simply ridiculous. Most properties are asking DOUBLE in rent what my friend, who bought in 1999, is paying in mortgage on his home.

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All the best with getting a job in Scotland. I had the misfortune of living in Swansea for a year, and was glad to leave. The city itself is grim, and the locals hear your accent and brand you as "English." (Until I moved to Swansea I had always refered to myself as British.) Then based on this title they give you they hurl abuse at you constantly. I have lived throughout the country and have never been anywhere like this.

It makes you empathise with people who are racially abused, except it must be harder for them as I only came out as English people heard my accent.

On the plus side, there are some of the most beautiful beaches I have seen on the Gower penninsula.

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I am sorry, but what you say is not the Swansea that I know and live in.

I have numerous friends here in Swansea from England and they seem very happy indeed... as do the people I know from Ireland, Oz, NZ, one Canadian, numerous Yanks and, interestingly, quite a large Scottish population.

Several of my friends are from Scotland originally and many of them work as Teachers or Nurses, plus several Nuns, here in the City. One of the teachers is someone I used to date and she married a very close friend of mine a few years back. All of last year I worked in an IT Team here in the Swansea area where the only person in the team who was not Scottish was me and they have become some of my closest friends.

Yes, there are certain parts of Wales where you find very insular people. I can relate some humourous stories about how insular some Welsh are. And, no doubt, there are those who make fun of the English much in the same way that the English repeat endless sheep jokes to Welsh people who work in England - perhaps you do not like it when the shoe is on the other foot!?

Of course, then there are the racists and those who have a deep seated hatred and loathing of the English. You will find racists in all walks of Life and all around the World - pity them for who and what they are.

Finally, I know of numerous English journalists and writers who have bought homes in Swansea in the last 5 years plus several well known Hollywood stars who, very discreetly, now own homes in the area. They seem to have found something that the like about Swansea.

Edit:

Oh, I forgot to mention the rugby. The bond that exists between the Scots and Welsh, (and the Irish, Aussies, Kiwis, Canucks for that matter), can best only be witnessed on the weeks of the Home Internationals. When Scotland come to play Wales in Cardiff the week before the game, and usually the week after, Swansea looks like a scene from Braveheart with kilts & sporrans gallore and, undoubtedly, a good re-mixing of the Celtic gene pool!

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I am sorry, but what you say is not the Swansea that I know and live in.

I have numerous friends here in Swansea from England and they seem very happy indeed... as do the people I know from Ireland, Oz, NZ, one Canadian, numerous Yanks and, interestingly, quite a large Scottish population.

Several of my friends are from Scotland originally and many of them work as Teachers or Nurses, plus several Nuns, here in the City. One of the teachers is someone I used to date and she married a very close friend of mine a few years back. All of last year I worked in an IT Team here in the Swansea area where the only person in the team who was not Scottish was me and they have become some of my closest friends.

Yes, there are certain parts of Wales where you find very insular people. I can relate some humourous stories about how insular some Welsh are. And, no doubt, there are those who make fun of the English much in the same way that the English repeat endless sheep jokes to Welsh people who work in England - perhaps you do not like it when the shoe is on the other foot!?

Of course, then there are the racists and those who have a deep seated hatred and loathing of the English. You will find racists in all walks of Life and all around the World - pity them for who and what they are.

Finally, I know of numerous English journalists and writers who have bought homes in Swansea in the last 5 years plus several well known Hollywood stars who, very discreetly, now own homes in the area. They seem to have found something that the like about Swansea.

Edit:

Oh, I forgot to mention the rugby. The bond that exists between the Scots and Welsh, (and the Irish, Aussies, Kiwis, Canucks for that matter), can best only be witnessed on the weeks of the Home Internationals. When Scotland come to play Wales in Cardiff the week before the game, and usually the week after, Swansea looks like a scene from Braveheart with kilts & sporrans gallore and, undoubtedly, a good re-mixing of the Celtic gene pool!

This is all true I'm sure for the more Cosmopolitan aras of Swansea such as Brynmill, Sketty, Uplands and many areas within SA1. There is however another side to Swansea and Imp is correct in his view that racism exists in these sectors. The poorer non-anglicised ex-industrial areas including Llanelli and the Swansea, Neath and Amman valleys where Welsh is commonly used in the home and as part of everyday life are inherently racist towards the English. In a previous post you advised that areas such as Cross Hands were thriving and would be a good place to settle. I agree that somebody moving to the area might find value for money in these areas but those from the other side of Offah's dyke might not get the welcome in the hillside that they might expect.

On an entirely different subject Tulip, how much rent pcm would you be prepared to pay for a 2 bedroom flat in the Marina in the current climate ? I agree that £750pcm is steep but I have had no problems with letting my property out for £500-600 pcm since 1996.

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I think 500 - 600 PCM is about right but that 750 PCM is simply too much and is probably asked for by people wo have paid over the odds for such properties. Apparently, 400 is the average in Wales for a flat and 500 - 600 for a typical home. It is noticeable that rents in Swansea are now higher than those adevrtised in Cardiff.

This is all true I'm sure for the more Cosmopolitan aras of Swansea such as Brynmill, Sketty, Uplands and many areas within SA1. There is however another side to Swansea and Imp is correct in his view that racism exists in these sectors. The poorer non-anglicised ex-industrial areas including Llanelli and the Swansea, Neath and Amman valleys where Welsh is commonly used in the home and as part of everyday life are inherently racist towards the English. In a previous post you advised that areas such as Cross Hands were thriving and would be a good place to settle. I agree that somebody moving to the area might find value for money in these areas but those from the other side of Offah's dyke might not get the welcome in the hillside that they might expect.

I would not disagree with this. In fact, I have experienced it myself first hand being of mixed Welsh Polish parentage and having people from the areas you mentiion be everything from simply hostile to downright racist because my surname and background does not conform to certain people's strict guidelines of who and what is Welsh.

I would consider now Cross Hands as there is influx of people from outside of the area although, 5 years ago, I would not have. Same is true for the coastal development on Llanelli's coastline by the Jack Nicklaus(?) golf course. I would not consider Ammanford at this time personally for the reasons you mention.

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Just popped into an EA in Swansea, two very bored looking EAs present, and I made the comment that Swansea prices were now Berkshire prices.

The reply I got was honest and long. They admitted that prices were ridiculous, that some had gone up by 100K in one year alone with many doubling, tripling and even quadrupling in a few years, that no one could buy now and that the market was dead.

Admitted that IRs are on the rise, that sellers have high prices stuck in their minds and do not realise the current stake of the market, admitted that prices were falling and were going to continue to fall, admitted that there was a bubble and that it could well soon burst, said that a crash would be good for the market as people could start buying again, commented that the only losers would be those who over-extended themselves in recent years and commented on how there were already 10,000 repossessions this year with it probably doubling next year.

All of that from simply stating that I felt Swansea prices were as high as in Berkshire!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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