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All the media are giving it large....talk of a new housing bubble and prices on the up.

However....I all seeming plenty listings on rightmove...people are now thinking they can cash in now no doubt....who's going to buy tho ?

Still plenty of drops on rightmove using property bee...around 40% in my searches today.

Disposable income down.

Expenses up eating into that money you can save with your low interest mortgage.

Mortgage rates still high really for anyone but then with a BIG deposit to gift the bankers.

Land registry stll flat/down only being kept up by the london madness low volume bubble.

Sales volumes up but not any where near normal.

Unafforability still at an all time high,

This media hype is insane, it's only purpose can be to keep the ponzi/pyramid going,

Ponzi/pyramid scams ALWAYS collapse and the bottom level ( FTBs and BTLs ) ALWAYS loose big.

Anyone young person will be using their deposit to LEAVE not buy a house.

The government are proving they are just banker puppers ( again ), It's disgraceful, ill try and vote UKIP next time but when that fails it will be time to leave,

New housing bubble....my a&&e.

Just because you think it shouldn't happen (and I agree there) doesn't mean that it won't happen.

Take a look at equities, commodity prices and house prices since 2008 ... in the wake of the bursting of the biggest credit bubble ever and with an ongoing economic stagnation/recession, prices have gone UP.

Shock horror - printing huge amounts of money to fund your own government deficit spending and giving liquidity for 'free' (next to zero percent interest) to the banks WILL boost asset prices. It's now a central pillar of economic policy and will continue to be until the mess collapses under the weight of printed money.

Regardless of whether or not it will be utterly ruinous in the longer term .. it quite obviously will create (more of) all sorts of inflation and fake 'propsperity' in the near term. ('Longer term' could be years away, depending on how long they can keep spinning the plates.)

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Certainly the propaganda is working in that sense that people in their late-20s and 30s we know ARE suddenly piling in.

They don't have the deposits or generous mortgage offers to buy the kinds of places commensurate with their education and employment so are buying small homes in cheaper, rougher areas that are just showing the first signs of gentrification. Some want to use Help to Buy, others are merely fearful of the boom H2B may bring pushing them yet further from their long-term goals, while others are facing such high rents that buying a cheap house somewhere gritty is a way to halt evermore gouging increases in living costs.

Of course, this influx will get other chains moving. So I'm in no doubt the government's engineered mini-boom will happen/is happening.

Edited by CrashedOutAndBurned
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Certainly the propaganda is working in that sense that people in their late-20s and 30s we know ARE suddenly piling in.

The don't have the deposits or generous mortgage offers to buy the kinds of places commensurate with their education and employment so are buying small homes in cheaper, rougher areas that are just showing the first signs of gentrification. Some want to use Help to Buy, others are merely fearful of the boom H2B may bring pushing them yet further from their long-term goals, while others are facing such high rents that buying a cheap house somewhere gritty is a way to halt evermore gouging increases in living costs.

Of course, this influx will get other chains moving. So I'm in now doubt the government's engineered mini-boom will happen/is happening.

This is exaclty what is happening in my part of outer London. It is not that cheap (but is compared to central London) and not rough, but I am definitely seeing a change in the population. The nicer roads of flats are now chock full of pushchairs and estate cars, when 5 years ago there would be hardly any families with kids living there.

The 'next step' terraced houses are now selling to people in their late 30's or 40's rather than late 20's as they would have been 5 years ago. As you say, I doubt that a 40 year old couple earning 6 figures between them would have seen a zone 6 terraced workers cottage in their future. They probably would have expected either to be living in a similar place in central-ish London, or moved out to a much more palatial house in the 'burbs or provinces, but this mess has stopped them doing that.

The only positive I can see coming fromm all of this is that the word 'bubble' is finally being used in relation to housing in the mainstream media. It is a bit ridiculous that they are still talking about the risk of us 'entering' another bubble, when everyone here knows we have been in bubble territory for years, but I guess it is a start that people are being told it is not a one way bet.

There was another article in City AM today (they have been at it all week), highlighting a survey showing that the current average London price of £425k is 12.5x the average salary of £34k and that this might have to come down slightly!

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....so anyone stretching themselves so as to diminish their standard of living and increasing their stress and slavery levels is only pandering to the persuasive beneficiaries with high vested interests in people buying at literally any cost...the highest cost being to the buyer that buys something they can't realistically afford that is out of their comfort zone and price bracket...........just because they give you a high credit card limit doesn't mean you have to go and spend it plus more, which you will need when you tot up what the combined costs are of buying a house on top of any mortgage repayments.....stuck in a problematic pickle like mess. ;)

Edited by winkie
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....so anyone stretching themselves so as to diminish their standard of living and increasing their stress and slavery levels is only pandering to the persuasive beneficiaries with high vested interests in people buying at literally any cost...the highest cost being to the buyer that buys something they can't realistically afford that is out of their comfort zone and price bracket...........just because they give you a high credit card limit doesn't mean you have to go and spend it plus more, which you will need when you tot up what the combined costs are of buying a house on top of any mortgage repayments.....stuck in a problematic pickle like mess. ;)

Yes, they are the definition of "sheeple", sad thing is many of them probably consider themselves quite "sophisticated" :lol: Welcome to Mr Bankers farm sheepies!

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It's not just TV, radio and print there is an email campaign too, I received an email this morning from Barratt Homes - "Paece, if you've got a 5% deposit, you could get your first home", body of the email contained a price example and a picture of a tiny nasty two bed semi-detached.

It looks like one of my relatives houses, you can sit in the front room watching telly and listen to people farting in the back upstairs bedroom, nice.

"5% deposit, 75% mortgage, 100% easy" - no thanks!

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All the media are giving it large....talk of a new housing bubble and prices on the up.

However....I all seeming plenty listings on rightmove...people are now thinking they can cash in now no doubt....who's going to buy tho ?

Still plenty of drops on rightmove using property bee...around 40% in my searches today.

I'm with you, Count.

I thought at the time HTB was announced that if the measures didn't have the necessary levels of shock and awe, but gained lots of publicity to the effect that they were positive for prices, we might just see a spike in supply, coupled with no real change in demand (proper demand that is, not the "but lots of people are registering with estate agents" guff that we see trumpeted by some).

I had previously thought they were going to extend the 20% equity loan to all sales and thought this was a game changer, as it's interest free for 5 years and many would have only seen the price of the house as the 75% that they were paying on Day 1. But this part wasn't extended (and if it was, it would presumably be a pretty big balance sheet committment compared to the guarantee?

As to the guarantee, I can't see how it changes the maths for a prospective buyer , except perhaps by giving them access to slightly better rates. IMO a lot more is needed to make things affordable and sustainable. Something like the 20% loan perhaps, the one that he housebuilers all advertise as if it means you only pay 80% of the house's value, the one that I'm sure was going to be extended to all sales but now seems to have dropped.....

So interesting times could be ahead and perhaps not the result everyone expects. But what do I know, I've predicted four of the last zero crashes since we STR in 2008.

A final thing I've noticed after not coming on here for a while - there are a hell of a lot of bears on here that have pretty much given up now, including some true stalwarts! What's that adage about the last bear turning bull again ? ;]

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Just because you think it shouldn't happen (and I agree there) doesn't mean that it won't happen.

Take a look at equities, commodity prices and house prices since 2008 ... in the wake of the bursting of the biggest credit bubble ever and with an ongoing economic stagnation/recession, prices have gone UP.

Shock horror - printing huge amounts of money to fund your own government deficit spending and giving liquidity for 'free' (next to zero percent interest) to the banks WILL boost asset prices. It's now a central pillar of economic policy and will continue to be until the mess collapses under the weight of printed money.

Regardless of whether or not it will be utterly ruinous in the longer term .. it quite obviously will create (more of) all sorts of inflation and fake 'propsperity' in the near term. ('Longer term' could be years away, depending on how long they can keep spinning the plates.)

"think" you must have missed something. despite what Tim media says actual sale prices still going down in real terms and just about in nominal terms too. take out the London effect and the indexes would be way down.

ill never get sick of pointing out the slow motion crash graph on the front page. the crash has years to go, years!

sure,we might get a mini boom for 6 months, though that's probably come and gone now, after that we will get one almighty BOOM when London collapses.

there schemes are not to help the public, they are just back door banker bailout. people should be furious about this attempted deception.

if you want to help bailout the banks, buy a house. i for one would rather leave this corrupt hole, buying an over priced shoe box house is not helpful if you don't plan on staying.

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ill never get sick of pointing out the slow motion crash graph on the front page. the crash has years to go, years!

Well I am getting sick of pointing out that inflation adjusted falls are meaningless without wage inflation.

The "price" of house by definition is not "falling" unless a smaller amount of work can be tendered to buy the same house.

Edited by goldbug9999
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I'm probably completing on a place in october, so that practically guarantees a crash soon thereafter.

Yup I've moved into actively looking to buy. In fact, I'm going to my first ever viewing in about an hour. You can all feel free to thank me and have a whip round for me when the market immediately crashes as soon as I find a place and the signature is dry.

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Yup I've moved into actively looking to buy. In fact, I'm going to my first ever viewing in about an hour. You can all feel free to thank me and have a whip round for me when the market immediately crashes as soon as I find a place and the signature is dry.

Judging from all the bull posts, I'd thought you'd bought ages ago. :rolleyes:.

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"think" you must have missed something. despite what Tim media says actual sale prices still going down in real terms and just about in nominal terms too. take out the London effect and the indexes would be way down.

Yes, but London and the SE are the biggest most important sector of the market. Of course they're going to have a big influence on the national stats.

For me, prices locally have halved since mid 2007. Buying now is a realistic option. Doesn't do a lot of good for the huge mass of potential buyers who live and work in London/SE though.

there schemes are not to help the public, they are just back door banker bailout. people should be furious about this attempted deception.

They should be crowds on the streets about what has been done but many are stupid and/or greedy and/or brainwashed. I'm not holding my breath for a mass upswing in public awareness.

if you want to help bailout the banks, buy a house. i for one would rather leave this corrupt hole, buying an over priced shoe box house is not helpful if you don't plan on staying.

I certainly wouldn't buy a house if I were in London/SE but that doesn't mean that there can't be another boom driven by prices there.

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Judging from all the bull posts, I'd thought you'd bought ages ago. :rolleyes:.

Oh Bruce, you scamp you.

My changes of opinion have been highlighted in pretty much all the posts I've made over the past 5 years or so. Feel free to keep following though its nice to be loved :)

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The way I see it this is the first major bull trap.

The only reason few can see it is because of QE and subsidies disguising the trend.

The trap only closes when enough suckers have entered. There is still a lot money out there, sat on the sidelines but signs of a new housing bubble *wink* would attract a lot of "bricks and mortar", "safe as houses" type investments. Funnily enough that could be exactly what's happening.

Sadly, I imagine the overall trend will be interrupted by multiple phases of QE of progressively larger amounts, followed by subsequently larger crashes. Hence there will be more than one bull trap.

Edited by adamLancs
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"think" you must have missed something. despite what Tim media says actual sale prices still going down in real terms and just about in nominal terms too. take out the London effect and the indexes would be way down.

ill never get sick of pointing out the slow motion crash graph on the front page. the crash has years to go, years!

sure,we might get a mini boom for 6 months, though that's probably come and gone now, after that we will get one almighty BOOM when London collapses.

there schemes are not to help the public, they are just back door banker bailout. people should be furious about this attempted deception.

if you want to help bailout the banks, buy a house. i for one would rather leave this corrupt hole, buying an over priced shoe box house is not helpful if you don't plan on staying.

It's not attempted deception. The general public isn't furious because they have actually been decieved again. They're still living in the same fool's paradise they were five years ago, but this time letting govt borrow and spend on their behalf to maintain a standard of living they haven't earned. The Japanese enjoyed a free lunch for two decades until the bill was served. The UK's debt trajectory is so much steeper than that. Right on for the darkness.

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sure,we might get a mini boom for 6 months, though that's probably come and gone now, after that we will get one almighty BOOM when London collapses.

Nah, they can make house prices keep growing for years yet.

There is simply too much at stake for the banking establishment to allow house prices to fall so they won't.

They will only fall when people move away from the very banking system they have grown to love.

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Yeah well, the national debt is still rising, the interest costs are rising and there is no credible plan to reverse this except sit back and hope for something to come along.

Meanwhile the debt hits 1.4 trillion or so, interest payments reach at least 70bn assuming yields don't rise, what do you think is going to happen?

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Yeah well, the national debt is still rising, the interest costs are rising and there is no credible plan to reverse this except sit back and hope for something to come along.

Meanwhile the debt hits 1.4 trillion or so, interest payments reach at least 70bn assuming yields don't rise, what do you think is going to happen?

The poor get poorer and the rich get richer. As has been the case for about 40 years now.

And all the while the poor blame each other.

Look at the housing situation. Anyone under 25 doesn't really care, they are probably living at home with their parents and have no savings as they can't find work. The 25-35 age group blames the boomers. The 35 - 45 age group blame the young for spending too much money on clothes, holidays and nights out. The 45-65 age group are too worried that their pensions are worthless and they can't pay off their mortgage before they retire. Meanwhile everyone blames the 'feckless' benefit scroungers.

Throw in some Britain's Got Talent, the new Football season, a royal baby and Facebook and no one worries about it for too long anyway.

And every age group is paying interest to the people at the top. :lol:

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Yeah well, the national debt is still rising, the interest costs are rising and there is no credible plan to reverse this except sit back and hope for something to come along.

Meanwhile the debt hits 1.4 trillion or so, interest payments reach at least 70bn assuming yields don't rise, what do you think is going to happen?

I don't know what's going to happen but I know what Osborne and Carney hope will happen: The UK will feed off from a recovery in the USA and Europe, tax receipts will rise enabling a gov debt reduction. GDP will rise, house prices will rise, all industries which are involved in the housing market will do well again contributing to a rise in GDP and everything will magically work out along with their re-election. Maybe some more inflation to reduce the gov debt and consumer debt. Sound right? And will it happen?

Edited by Spoony
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The south east sales volumes are tiny...prices being kept up by low interest rates and stupidity.

Ask yourself the simple question...can you afford a decent place to live in line with your profession and income? I'd wager not. This means, ultimately, price falls, like it or not.

Where do you think the house price indexes would be if it weren't for all the government bailouts ?

At some point something will have to give.....it's inevitable. Being in the uk though when the correction happens might not be worth waiting for.

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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