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Why The Hpc Is Still On

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There has been alot of talk of stagnation and of giving up on the HPC just lately. Well I was pretty disappointed with the latest LR data as well until I took a closer look at the figures. The numbers of properties sold are the key to future price trends. The following graph shows why I, at least, am feeling rather excited at the moment.

If you look closely at the graph you will notice that in most years the last and first quarters (around Xmas) are very poor. The best time is usually the third quarter, hence the recent noise from the bull camp. The red lines bound the trend and the dotted lines represent my prediction of the next two quarters numbers. I think early next year will see lots good news for those of us who want to see HPI go negative.

This second graph is a bar chart of the monthly HPI from the main indices. You will notice that there was very good agreement between them all up until june last year. Since then they have been all over the place. Given the previous graph I expect the bar chart to show more strong agreement soon, in the downwards direction :D .

Hang on the crash is going to gather pace. Remember it is a super tanker, not a sports car! :D

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There has been alot of talk of stagnation and of giving up on the HPC just lately. Well I was pretty disappointed with the latest LR data as well until I took a closer look at the figures. The numbers of properties sold are the key to future price trends. The following graph shows why I, at least, am feeling rather excited at the moment.

If you look closely at the graph you will notice that in most years the last and first quarters (around Xmas) are very poor. The best time is usually the third quarter, hence the recent noise from the bull camp. The red lines bound the trend and the dotted lines represent my prediction of the next two quarters numbers. I think early next year will see lots good news for those of us who want to see HPI go negative.

This second graph is a bar chart of the monthly HPI from the main indices. You will notice that there was very good agreement between them all up until june last year. Since then they have been all over the place. Given the previous graph I expect the bar chart to show more strong agreement soon, in the downwards direction :D .

Hang on the crash is going to gather pace. Remember it is a super tanker, not a sports car! :D

That second graph is fascinating. I have often wondered about the statistics from the various sources, and the way it almost seems like one is up when the other is down and vice versa, and also how figures from one source fluctuate so much month to month now, where before june last year it was much smoother. It's almost worthy of a conspiracy theory.

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Guest Riser

There has been a lot of talk of stagnation and of giving up on the HPC just lately. Well I was pretty disappointed with the latest LR data as well until I took a closer look at the figures. The numbers of properties sold are the key to future price trends. The following graph shows why I, at least, am feeling rather excited at the moment............

I have no doubt the market is turning and suspect the lack of agreement between the main surveys we are seeing at the moment is due to a number of reasons

1. Low transaction volumes resulting in greater price variations due to smaller sample size

2. Seasonal adjustment becoming a greater proportion of the reported HPI, the attached graph shows nationwide seasonal adjustment can be up to 1% which dominates the result when true HPI is close to zero.

3. Lack of agreement in the market place with some sellers accepting offers and others in denial about the falling market, also a lack of consensus among buyers

4. Lack of a common method for mix adjusting figures resulting in some surveys failing to account for higher mean sale prices due to sale of high cost houses pulling up the average price as lower price houses fail to sell in the absence of FTB

5. Different time lag associated with each report causing confusion as market experiences short term changes

In my opinion HPC is still on track, sure there will be short term fluctuations as the government forces the MPC to cut rates but the position is unsustainable and the housing market will correct, there is an inevitability about it.

Seasonal Adjustment Dominates Reported Changes when HPI is low

Edited by Riser

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I don't usually look inside the local property rag but I did the other day and the prices looked all over the place. Lots of flats on the market for the same price as houses etc. I know you'd expect that to a small extent because of the varying states of properties, but this was marked.

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NAEA showing FTB's falling again - back down to 9%, the rate cut and promise of lower rates brought out a few buyers, no doubt there are a few flippers hoping to mop up some profit from a sale in the spring to the sippers.

Meanwhile local auction tonight top of the shop property - 4,000sqft failed reserve at £500K, "the one you'd all some for" apparently - well apparently not.

With the FTB's going again it is up to the "investors" to keep the whole market propped up - it requires £billions per month to do so and investors can be a very fickle breed. Burn them once and they won't flinch, burn them twice and they'll run away with their pants on fire.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Am I blind or does it look like:

1/ The LR graph has been doctored by you to add 2 more imaginary quarters? I also can't help notice that your imaginary Q1 2006 heads down while all the others head upwards.... :blink:

2/ The MOM graph look like there is nothing out of the ordinary.

Are you guilty of seeing your desired outcome in your interpretation? I think so.

Face it, there hasn't been a crash, there is no reason for there to be a crash.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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Im seeing houses in the same street from £125K to £170K and the latest selling ones are only achieving 120-130K anyway. The EA's have got their heads up their ass and are confused!!!!

Its gone be a cold hard winter!!!!

They said that retail sales were down this year becuase of a warm summer. Anyone want a wager with me that htis will be the headline in SPRING?

"Retail sales rocked by coldest winter in years - We expect an upturn this summer"

Alls im saying is

PPPsssssssssttttttttt.......

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I don't usually look inside the local property rag but I did the other day and the prices looked all over the place. Lots of flats on the market for the same price as houses etc. I know you'd expect that to a small extent because of the varying states of properties, but this was marked.

Thank god someone is being cheerful. 1 little disappointing indicator and we all go to pieces. The fact is that the sh*t in the market is now hitting the fan.

Change starts in the ghettos not the pleasant valley suburbs. I get the impression that most of the people on this site are waiting around for the property of their dreams in a nice location with good schools etc... hence are looking in the wrong direction for eye of the storm. YOUR PLACE won't be affected until the cyclone has built to maximum velocity.

Come gather around people wherever you own

And admit that to level of debt you have grown

And accept it that out on your butt you'll be thrown

If your equity is worth the savin'

Then you better start selling or you'll sink like a stone

For the times they are a-changin' . . .

Poetic licence exercised on Bob Dylan!

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Change starts in the ghettos not the pleasant valley suburbs. I get the impression that most of the people on this site are waiting around for the property of their dreams in a nice location with good schools etc... hence are looking in the wrong direction for eye of the storm. YOUR PLACE won't be affected until the cyclone has built to maximum velocity.

Yes and no, the "rungs" are so far apart that the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th time buyers are facing huge increases in mortgages to go for the more exclusive or larger properties. These people are at stages of their live where other fixed costs - children, intermittent one-earner pressures, even saving for retirement are kind of getting the way; the idea of a lumping great big mortgage again rather than seeing a mortgage progressively eaten away is unpalatable for many.

I posted about 6 months ago that I had a market barometer right outside the kitchen window - this area doesn't do "for-sale" signs, well at least it didn't and this particular one is still there.

I have no doubt that the bottom and lower quality/location is well overpriced but that has a different dynamic for the moment - the investor brigade will bid up almost anything, anywhere as can be seen by the LR figs.

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1/ The LR graph has been doctored by you to add 2 more imaginary quarters? I also can't help notice that your imaginary Q1 2006 heads down while all the others head upwards.... :blink:

Q1 is always down. No, what he has doctored is the older figures. For example, for Q3 2004 the graph shows about 360,000 transactions, while the Land Registry actually reported 309,000. Q3 2002 the graph shows about 380,000, against an actual reported figure of 328,000.

Presumably, he is using the total numbers of transactions that the Land Registry has now for each period, rather than what they reported six weeks after the end of the period, so most of the "decrease" shown on this graph simply reflects the fact that many transactions take a long time to be reported. But regardless of the source of the error, the graph is worthless.

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Am I blind or does it look like:

1/ The LR graph has been doctored by you to add 2 more imaginary quarters? I also can't help notice that your imaginary Q1 2006 heads down while all the others head upwards.... :blink:

2/ The MOM graph look like there is nothing out of the ordinary.

Are you guilty of seeing your desired outcome in your interpretation? I think so.

Face it, there hasn't been a crash, there is no reason for there to be a crash.

I have not doctored any figures. I copied the data from the LR regional tables last night and summed them. The dotted lines, as I stated in my orginal post, are my predictions and you will notice, if you bothered to look that I am predicting that the 2005 Q3 numbers will increase as more information is fed into the LR database.

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Am I blind or does it look like:

1/ The LR graph has been doctored by you to add 2 more imaginary quarters? I also can't help notice that your imaginary Q1 2006 heads down while all the others head upwards.... :blink:

2/ The MOM graph look like there is nothing out of the ordinary.

Are you guilty of seeing your desired outcome in your interpretation? I think so.

Face it, there hasn't been a crash, there is no reason for there to be a crash.

Why do you bang on with "face it" and phrases like that? Some people on here don't have an emotional investment in there being a crash. I don't care one way or the other. Why should I? There's nothing I can do to influence it.

But, you are being an idiot if you think there is "no reason" for there to be a crash. There are plenty reasons, and there are plenty respected economists and people that know a lot more than you, or me, or anyone else on here that think there are good reasons why a crash is possible. There might be a crash, or there might not. There are probably more reasons to support the idea that there will be a crash than there were a few years ago.

Don't be a fool and pretend you know what is going to happen. If anyone does actually know for sure what is going to happen, it is going to be somebody a lot brighter than you mate.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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