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Euro Area’S Recession Seen Over As Champagne Kept On Ice

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-11/euro-area-s-recession-seen-over-as-champagne-kept-on-ice.html

The euro-area economy probably edged back to growth last quarter for the first time since 2011, ending the longest recession since the single currency union started 14 years ago.

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation region expanded 0.2 percent in the three months through June after shrinking for the previous six quarters, according to the median of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will release the data on Aug. 14. Germany probably grew about 0.75 percent, according to a government estimate, exceeding the 0.6 percent economists predict.

It will be interesting to see what the actual figure is. A whopping 0.2% growth.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-11/euro-area-s-recession-seen-over-as-champagne-kept-on-ice.html

It will be interesting to see what the actual figure is. A whopping 0.2% growth.

It seems as if there is a concerted media effort to 'talk up' recovery at the moment, using whatever paltry percentage that comes along.

The problem is, even some quite good numbers (like Spanish exports) are but a drop in the ocean compared to the debt that isn't simply going away. (Actually, becoming more unsustainable by the day.)

The kind of growth and inflation needed to melt away even a little of that debt just isn't going to happen. In fact, more bailout debt and internal devaluation is only making things worse . . . and even leading to price deflation.

We all know it's never going to work, but nobody wants to bite the bullet . . . either with default or Euro exit.

Edwin Hugh had an interesting comment about Euro exit.

Countries may well one day leave the euro, but if they do it will be because the cost of trying to hold it together has driven them all but mad, not because they have made some back-of-the-envelope calculation showing that the benefits outweigh the costs. Leaving the euro would be a huge leap into the unknown, leaving one side of the calculation sheet simply beyond our ken. As I argued in a post for the CNN blog, the currency bares an uncanny resemblance to Dr Strangelove’s doomsday machine, designed so that one day it would almost inevitably blow up the global financial system, but constructed so that any attempt to dismantle it would also produce the same outcome.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23692102

The eurozone has emerged from recession after a record 18 months of economic contraction.

Across the bloc, GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013, slightly ahead of forecasts.

The growth was widely expected after the German economy rose 0.7% between April and June.

Are European house prices going up?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23692102

Are European house prices going up?

Um, Irro. That's not the yardstick, in European terms.

'The restaurants are all full'. (© S. Berlusconi)

Funnily enough, I was in Naples the last few weeks and indeed the restaurants were all full . . . of people begging and trying to bum a cigarette from those sitting down.

It's as if they hadn't heard about the recovery.

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I find it interesting that, contrary to what all the VIs have been saying, France hasn't actually imploded under Hollande.

record unemployment in france. 26 months in a row of rising unemployment. if UK unemployment was near 12% like france there would be a few harsh words to say.

the UK's 0.6% growth is actually dragging the EU figure up. the fact that the UK is a bastion of strength just goes to show how bad things are in the rest of the EU.

in all honesty the UK has ridden out the problems a lot better than much of europe so far.

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record unemployment in france. 26 months in a row of rising unemployment. if UK unemployment was near 12% like france there would be a few harsh words to say.

the UK's 0.6% growth is actually dragging the EU figure up.

Unexpected growth of 0.5% announced for France today. It will need that for the next two quarters to bring the jobless rate down.

[edit] Growth largely down to government spending, not sure that is a good thing.

Edited by davidg

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[edit] Growth largely down to government spending, not sure that is a good thing.

Yes. It really is, See Gidiot and his magic help-to-buy scheme. Government gambling on behalf of the tax-payers. :ph34r:

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