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The Masked Tulip

I Warn You, Mr Carney – A Housing Bubble Is Coming

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Housing bubble has been and gone, it ain`t coming back, much as some people might wish for it.

The bubble has not gone, imo. The inflation part is over but it hasn't deflated yet as it needs to do. TPTB are trying hard to prevent it from doing so and have slowed the deflation down.

I knew that the interest rate promise could not be fully binding. It wouldn't make sense for it to be so:-

In effect, the new Governor told current and potential homeowners that interest rates would remain at rock bottom until 2016. Yes, get-out clauses do exist, but the general public are unlikely to be across the details.

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Apparantly last time "nobody saw it coming". This time they won't be able to get away with that one.

That's a very good point - it might explain why so many commentators are openly criticising, hoping that they get the St. Roubini label next time around. Of course, the vast majority of commentators have a habit of being completely wrong, but the more negative sentiment they throw about the better as far as I'm concerned.

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The bubble has not gone, imo. The inflation part is over but it hasn't deflated yet as it needs to do. TPTB are trying hard to prevent it from doing so and have slowed the deflation down.

I knew that the interest rate promise could not be fully binding. It wouldn't make sense for it to be so:-

Well no it hasn`t gone in the sense of people accepting 50% off their house, but it has gone in the sense that a wall of global money is not pumping it up any more, and in the fact that most people are struggling to sell their house? The tiny volumes are a burst bubble that is able to just sit there without losses being realised because of low interest rates? It seems to me that the banks could lend more if people with no or low mortgage were forced to drop their price, surely the issue of "solvency" is irrelevant now that the government is backing them, they just need lending business, why don`t they get the crash rolling with repo`s?

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The tiny volumes are a burst bubble that is able to just sit there without losses being realised because of low interest rates? It seems to me that the banks could lend more if people with no or low mortgage were forced to drop their price, surely the issue of "solvency" is irrelevant now that the government is backing them, they just need lending business, why don`t they get the crash rolling with repo`s?

Totally agree.

Why the crash isn't rolling is complicated by VI owners, both outright and the ones Merv worries about in their mid 30s and 40s with jumbo mortgages having chosen to buy in belief they'll get run of easy economic times forever..

I'd love to live in this area http://www.wilmslow....ing-development One good thing being the council seems to have been forced to override NIMBY groups. Perhaps with developers pressuring the authorities to allow them to do business, to maintain jobs and incomes in the economy. What prices they'll ask once built is a different matter (HTB probably).

Read some of the comments. Running a search on the lady's name for this one below, in another article she describes herself as 'one of the more mature voters' (thus important) and another search suggests she lives on the road where the new housing development looks set to be built. Too many of them count their HPI 'wealth' of the decades. It makes them feel important and good and, very wealthy, and not much concern at all for younger people. "Make them pay what it's worth."

How have the council measured the impact of so many dwellings on the existing housing market and values?

So many of these houses around at the mid-to-upper end of market. If we get more downsizers, clearly a chasm for those who can afford their homes = some sellers blinks first in prepared to lower price = lower all market prices at sale. Everything might be supporting things as they are, but just need more older sellers to come to market, and growing concern they've less change of getting their anticipated price, because so few upsizers can ever afford it.

One good thing is affordability for such mid-to-upper homes is getting worse all the time (in my opinion), with policies of forbearance and bail-outs we're experiencing. Just have to see if really dumb people really are prepared to take out HTB2 debt for such homes.

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Aren't we still in a bubble? At no point have I seen a majority consensus that investing in property is a bad thing. All the "joy" as "houseprices set to rise 30%", with FTBs returning to the market surely signifies that no lesson has been learnt and the bubble continues, in the "return to normal" phase...

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Totally agree.

Why the crash isn't rolling is complicated by VI owners, both outright and the ones Merv worries about in their mid 30s and 40s with jumbo mortgages having chosen to buy in belief they'll get run of easy economic times forever..

I'd love to live in this area http://www.wilmslow....ing-development One good thing being the council seems to have been forced to override NIMBY groups. Perhaps with developers pressuring the authorities to allow them to do business, to maintain jobs and incomes in the economy. What prices they'll ask once built is a different matter (HTB probably).

Read some of the comments. Running a search on the lady's name for this one below, in another article she describes herself as 'one of the more mature voters' (thus important) and another search suggests she lives on the road where the new housing development looks set to be built. Too many of them count their HPI 'wealth' of the decades. It makes them feel important and good and, very wealthy, and not much concern at all for younger people. "Make them pay what it's worth."

So many of these houses around at the mid-to-upper end of market. If we get more downsizers, clearly a chasm for those who can afford their homes = some sellers blinks first in prepared to lower price = lower all market prices at sale. Everything might be supporting things as they are, but just need more older sellers to come to market, and growing concern they've less change of getting their anticipated price, because so few upsizers can ever afford it.

One good thing is affordability for such mid-to-upper homes is getting worse all the time (in my opinion), with policies of forbearance and bail-outs we're experiencing. Just have to see if really dumb people really are prepared to take out HTB2 debt for such homes.

This jumped out at me from the comments - "Who is going to buy all these houses? Surely there will be too much new housing."

Strikes me that there must be swathes of people up and down the UK just bursting to shift a property to downsize or move, the only thing stopping many of them is greed for prices that never really existed in any realisable way, except for a moment at the absolute apex of the pyramid/Ponzi?

Edited by dances with sheeple

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Aren't we still in a bubble? At no point have I seen a majority consensus that investing in property is a bad thing. All the "joy" as "houseprices set to rise 30%", with FTBs returning to the market surely signifies that no lesson has been learnt and the bubble continues, in the "return to normal" phase...

Or some people have so much debt that they cling to any shred of hope? For all the pouring over media links to property ramping on here are we sure that the majority or even the minority of sheeple are influenced by this trash any more? I doubt it approaches anything like the numbers who believed it when the Ponzi was in full flight.

Edited by dances with sheeple

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.........they must have read last months Toronto Star.....this guy got out in time to drown the new 'Clown of Brown' ...Osborne... :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Canadian housing bubble looks ripe for popping

Housing in Canada is unaffordable. International experts are unequivocal in their concern, and Canadian lawmakers are taking measures to deflate slowly rather than crash. Ironically, only Canadian homebuyers seem to think the market is sustainable. Sale prices are still rising. So when does it all start to unwind? Right about now.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/07/14/canadian_housing_bubble_looks_ripe_for_popping.html

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