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18 months ago when I started reading this site, Everyone was happy in the notion of a crash or some kind of price correction, that was when prices were still rising. Now there is stagnation, it seems the majority of people on here have changed there tune, and saying thre will probably be no price correction. Am I missing something here because it seems obvious that prices have to halt and stagnate before reversal takes place, and all other signs of economy point to a downward trend, so if someone had been watching prices rise for say three years, why would they choose to buy now ? If marekts and asset prices come in peaks and troughs at some point a reversal is sure to come for whatever reason ? Arent the current signs the ones everyones been waiting for or should this sight be renmed housepessemists.co.uk ?? Please let me know what Im missing here

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Can't remember who it was, but the girlfriend of one of the posters here calls this site "pessimism.com". :D

I agree with you though, I am rather puzzled that people are showing signs of fatigue at a time when a lot of their predictions are coming true, and things are moving in the right direction for a crash.

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18 months ago when I started reading this site, Everyone was happy in the notion of a crash or some kind of price correction, that was when prices were still rising. Now there is stagnation, it seems the majority of people on here have changed there tune, and saying thre will probably be no price correction. Am I missing something here because it seems obvious that prices have to halt and stagnate before reversal takes place, and all other signs of economy point to a downward trend, so if someone had been watching prices rise for say three years, why would they choose to buy now ? If marekts and asset prices come in peaks and troughs at some point a reversal is sure to come for whatever reason ? Arent the current signs the ones everyones been waiting for or should this sight be renmed housepessemists.co.uk ?? Please let me know what Im missing here

Well, your missing the fact there is no catastrophic economic 'jolt' to precipitate a crash. The economy is sloshing around in choppy weather but I dont see a crash. These lulls are nothing new, to me as a business owner I recall countless lulls, but the only one that made any impact was the last crash bought on by an unusual mix of catalyists incuding 16% rates.

Remember bears, this is housing, not a pure investment market on the whole.

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indeed, what is there to be optimistic about

high street dead

car sales dying

energy prices rising

potential rate rises

unemployment rising

wage inflation low

bankruptcies up

repossessions rising

it all spells bubble pop to me

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As someone mentioned earlier, I think a few VI sleeper cells have been activated over the last two weeks...there's been a definate influx of newbie bullishness (not that its a problem, its actually refreshing. But one land reg report wont change my opinion on the future)

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Oh, I forgot to put in my post above : 18 months ago / 2 years ago you had to pay the asking price, if not more, so how come now people are negociating 10% discounts ? What does that say ? But please everyone remember this is a boom time (although people seem to have short memeories) So dont squirrel all your money away, Spend some on yourself for the here and now, so go out more often, go on holiday an extra time, or Whatever Life is for the living after all

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indeed, what is there to be optimistic about

high street dead

car sales dying

energy prices rising

potential rate rises

unemployment rising

wage inflation low

bankruptcies up

repossessions rising

it all spells bubble pop to me

High street always dies, it will come back to life I promise

Car sales - ditto

Energy - been there in the 1970s..... and? Life went on

Potential rate decreases or stability

Unemployment often rises and falls and its still way below previous recessionary periods

Wage inflation low, good, maintains competitivness

Bankcrupties up to to easy process, my brother and his partner both separately did this just because they were fed - up paying off c cards

Repos - still very low, sure a few casualties are innevitable when lending is loose

Im a neg - head often, but I still see opportunity everywhere

REMEMBER - THERE WERE MORE MILLIONAIRES AT THE END OF THE LAST RECESSION THAN AT THE START

Its all a game. Imagine standing on the Moon looking at earth - Humans are pretty irrelevant you know.

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Well, your missing the fact there is no catastrophic economic 'jolt' to precipitate a crash. The economy is sloshing around in choppy weather but I dont see a crash. These lulls are nothing new, to me as a business owner I recall countless lulls, but the only one that made any impact was the last crash bought on by an unusual mix of catalyists incuding 16% rates.

Remember bears, this is housing, not a pure investment market on the whole.

Hi,

Why is the 16% rates thing so widely misquoted. I remember that crash well. The rates spiked due to currency speculators attacking the pound in late 1992. Infact, the property market was already in deep decline by that stage, it was like two crashes in one, the stagnation and drops between late 1989 and 1992, followed by a nail in the coffin and bigger drops in late 1992. Partly because speculators sensed the UK economy was in trouble at a time it was trying to maintain a falling exchange rate, so they attacked it. And we had alot of gold reserves back then to defend the pound. Sound familiar? The property market was well in decline by late 1992, it was even showing up in the dodgy Nationwide and Halifax indices before the big interest rate spikes. Go and read the FT and economist articles from that era if you don't remember.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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18 months ago when I started reading this site, Everyone was happy in the notion of a crash or some kind of price correction, that was when prices were still rising. Now there is stagnation, it seems the majority of people on here have changed there tune, and saying thre will probably be no price correction. Am I missing something here because it seems obvious that prices have to halt and stagnate before reversal takes place, and all other signs of economy point to a downward trend, so if someone had been watching prices rise for say three years, why would they choose to buy now ? If marekts and asset prices come in peaks and troughs at some point a reversal is sure to come for whatever reason ? Arent the current signs the ones everyones been waiting for or should this sight be renmed housepessemists.co.uk ?? Please let me know what Im missing here

Its what people do. I see alot of the time the words hope and faith being used as a replacement for knowledge. When you have a little hope you want a little more, give inch take mile type of thing. When you first earn £30K p.a you are really happy with it, give it 6-12 months and you start to think that you deserve more.

Its only been since feb this year that things have started to turn, the more it looks like its happening the more people want, greed, we are all guilty of it in some form, some people will alter it slightly and call it ambition or some other word.

I do think that some people on this site really need to take a look at thier exepectations, they need to look at what a crash will mean and how long it will take, they have to be prepared to possibly lose out too. They have to really understand that it take years.

It does also give people some meaning -sounds odd ey? It gives people something to actually talk about, it gives people an excuse. What would you be doing if you were not reading this post? you boring g*t.

There are always atleast four types of bears, those who think they know,those who know they think, those who know someone who thinks and those who think they know someone who thinks they know.

Me? im just typing until my stir fry vegetables are done in the microwave .... *ping*

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The what?

Get that wok or frypan out man!

To late :lol: I was tempted by the wok but i like my food iradiated, i kinda think there will be some slight chance that eating nuked food will give me super powers!

:lol:

EDITED:

What may disturb you even more though is that i have nothing to put on it so ive just the bowl of stir fry veg 4 good squirts of tomatoe kethup ... yummy :P Can ya tell im a single guy?

Edited by theChuz

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Guest consa

All is not as it seems on this site. There are VI vermin crawling all over it, better call Rentokil pest control!

I have to agree, today has been especially unusual, even my site has had an unusual amount of browsers today and all day as well, has a nerve been hit somewhere? I think so :lol:

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To late :lol: I was tempted by the wok but i like my food iradiated, i kinda think there will be some slight chance that eating nuked food will give me super powers!

:lol:

EDITED:

What may disturb you even more though is that i have nothing to put on it so ive just the bowl of stir fry veg 4 good squirts of tomatoe kethup ... yummy :P Can ya tell im a single guy?

Well, actually tomatoes are very good for you and ketchup is concentrated tomato so that's ok.

Being single though is no excuse for ignoring the benefits of eating properly.

Fresh is best.

This is a public information message brought to you by me.

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High street always dies, it will come back to life I promise

HUH!!!???

Car sales - ditto

Again!!!???

Energy - been there in the 1970s..... and? Life went on

Yes and there was a crash in the 70s - as you bloomin' well know. Prices rose like billyo but not houses!

Potential rate decreases or stability

14 reductions 1992-94 still a crash!

Unemployment often rises and falls and its still way below previous recessionary periods

10 yrs of employment growth spells 5 yrs of falls - low cost country suppliers, construction, public sector etc

Wage inflation low, good, maintains competitivness

not compared to India or China

Bankcrupties up to to easy process, my brother and his partner both separately did this just because they were fed - up paying off c cards

Wally!

Repos - still very low, sure a few casualties are innevitable when lending is loose

66% up on last year!

Im a neg - head often, but I still see opportunity everywhere

REMEMBER - THERE WERE MORE MILLIONAIRES AT THE END OF THE LAST RECESSION THAN AT THE START

Yes, not to buy. Re millionaires - So what?

Oh...my...god. :lol:

Edited by Financial Planner

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Look, I have had a few glasses and I don't mean to be rude, but if you are going to start a topic at least use a spellchecker or dictionary for the topic title at least.

"Pessimists".

[ Corrected by Moderator ]

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"Pessimists" is the wrong way round. This site is full of Optimists! After all if the price of a hi-fi, or car, or holiday was going inexorably upwards, I think you would be a bit miffed. But if prices were competitive and reasonable then you might be described as an OPTIMIST for wishing that competitive pricing to remain.

But wait....because we are talking about property, the rules have inexplicably changed. Apparently it is "Pessimistic" to wish prices were affordable, something which applied to ANY other goods or services would be considered desirable. So what's the difference?

Ah....step forward: UN-EARNED INCOME.

Yes we all have come to expect, AS OF RIGHT, the notion that we are ENTITLED to an un-earned income, just because we "own" a roof over our heads. But what about the NEXT person in line to acquire what we acquired? Well, apparently: "STUFF them". They can PAY for the profit we made. After all that's what WE had to do, so why shouldn't they?

So, you were talking about "Pessimism". What please, is "pessimistic" about wishing for, or reporting, that house prices are lower? To my mind that is "Optimistic".

VP

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18 months ago when I started reading this site, Everyone was happy in the notion of a crash or some kind of price correction, that was when prices were still rising. Now there is stagnation, it seems the majority of people on here have changed there tune, and saying thre will probably be no price correction. Am I missing something here because it seems obvious that prices have to halt and stagnate before reversal takes place, and all other signs of economy point to a downward trend, so if someone had been watching prices rise for say three years, why would they choose to buy now ? If marekts and asset prices come in peaks and troughs at some point a reversal is sure to come for whatever reason ? Arent the current signs the ones everyones been waiting for or should this sight be renmed housepessemists.co.uk ?? Please let me know what Im missing here

Brilliant observation.

:lol::lol::lol:

I think it may be the tension building up to the dam breach.

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"Pessimists" is the wrong way round. This site is full of Optimists! After all if the price of a hi-fi, or car, or holiday was going inexorably upwards, I think you would be a bit miffed. But if prices were competitive and reasonable then you might be described as an OPTIMIST for wishing that competitive pricing to remain.

But wait....because we are talking about property, the rules have inexplicably changed. Apparently it is "Pessimistic" to wish prices were affordable, something which applied to ANY other goods or services would be considered desirable. So what's the difference?

Ah....step forward: UN-EARNED INCOME.

Yes we all have come to expect, AS OF RIGHT, the notion that we are ENTITLED to an un-earned income, just because we "own" a roof over our heads. But what about the NEXT person in line to acquire what we acquired? Well, apparently: "STUFF them". They can PAY for the profit we made. After all that's what WE had to do, so why shouldn't they?

So, you were talking about "Pessimism". What please, is "pessimistic" about wishing for, or reporting, that house prices are lower? To my mind that is "Optimistic".

VP

And the reason people expect unearned income is that, at the end of every year, they have feck all of their earned income left.

Tax, NI, council tax, electricity, gas, phone, insurances, car, car tax, food, clothes, MORTGAGE, water rates, toys and clothes for the kids, christmas presents, birthday presents and, if you're lucky, an odd holiday.

Still, times get tight and a bit of MEWing sorts things out. It is important that house prices keep moving up.

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High street always dies, it will come back to life I promise

Car sales - ditto

Energy - been there in the 1970s..... and? Life went on

Potential rate decreases or stability

Unemployment often rises and falls and its still way below previous recessionary periods

Wage inflation low, good, maintains competitivness

Bankcrupties up to to easy process, my brother and his partner both separately did this just because they were fed - up paying off c cards

Repos - still very low, sure a few casualties are innevitable when lending is loose

Im a neg - head often, but I still see opportunity everywhere

REMEMBER - THERE WERE MORE MILLIONAIRES AT THE END OF THE LAST RECESSION THAN AT THE START

Its all a game. Imagine standing on the Moon looking at earth - Humans are pretty irrelevant you know.

This is like reading a bad horoscope dogbox. All global statements that could apply anywhere any time. Here is the alternative for 6 months ago:

High street full of life, it will die again I promise

Car sales - ditto

Energy to burn - but sooner or later the middle east will errupt and there will be another big recession.

Potential rate increases or decreases or stability (depending what the chief of the BOE has for breakfast on the morning of an announcement)

Unemployment way below previous recessionary periods but it often rises and falls

Wage inflation low, and everybody is MEWing to make up the short fall, good, maintains competitiveness

Bankcrupties down, were hard to process, good, helps maintain the GDP

Repos - very low, since the spending ceiling has not been reached so everybody was recycling themselves into financing oblivion.

Im a neg - head often, but I still see opportunity everywhere

And your point is?

REMEMBER - THERE WERE MORE MILLIONAIRES AT THE END OF THE LAST RECESSION THAN AT THE START

Yeah well, inflation was rampant during that period, so there had to be for people to just keep up.

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Well, your missing the fact there is no catastrophic economic 'jolt' to precipitate a crash. The economy is sloshing around in choppy weather but I dont see a crash. These lulls are nothing new, to me as a business owner I recall countless lulls, but the only one that made any impact was the last crash bought on by an unusual mix of catalyists incuding 16% rates.

Remember bears, this is housing, not a pure investment market on the whole.

I have mentioned in a couple of other posts today one particular house I watched. After I STRed in late 2003 - early in 2004 a nice house went on the market that I drive past most days. Its a big detached place - newish, brick/flint with (real) brick paved paths and gravel drive etc. Very nice place. On the market at £565k - which I thought, when it first went on, was not too bad a price. If it was over the top, it didn't seem to be by much.

It didn't sell for a very long time - not until Jan 2005. Out of curiousity I looked it up today on nethouseprices - I thought 'they held out for a long time - wonder how much they got'. Blow me they only got £469k.

All the similar priced stuff round here is the same - it does not sell for ages and then only after a few price falls.

2 bed new build flats are yours without asking for a discount - 15% off is offered as soon as you stick your head round the door.

This stuff does not appear in the Land Registry figures because I am sure the house I am talking about probably changed hands for a couple of hundred k less some years ago. So it still looks like a massive rise. But, compared to prices being asked in 2003 - properties in this range are 10% to 15% down.

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Hi,

Yes, admittedly, I too have been out for the evening and had one too many beers. Not a good time to sit at the keyboard EXCEPT. This last week has seen an incredible number of bored EA's and late-to-the-scene BTL folk starting very silly threads. Come on, do you think peops are that stupid?!?!

"Hi, yes, I am a newbie bear but really I don't think there is a crash despite all the little pieces burried amogst the stats that suggest there is. Even if the corrupt and dodgy nationwide and halifax indices have admitted prices are likely to fall, even if the FT and Hometrack indices have been negative for a while. Even if the economy is running on thin air, no, no, no. La la la I can't hear you! Just be a good little surf and let me leverage all this debt onto you. Don't think for youself!

Honestly! It's like those nigerian investment bankers who email me every so often offering incredible investment opportunuites. Please, for jasus sake, ADD SOMETHING TO THE DEBATE! Don't just say, 'oh, it's different this time, there is a new economic reality, blah, blah, blah" Go on, get some links and analysis, get something that can be discussed and we will have a look at it. Otherwise, stop wasting time!

Ok, I am off to the bathroom now with a good book and a mug of tea. Awoooga

boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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Look, I have had a few glasses and I don't mean to be rude, but if you are going to start a topic at least use a spellchecker or dictionary for the topic title at least.

"Pessimists".

[ Corrected by Moderator ]

Mods, I am bereft, an error in a post correcting another member.

Please tell me my mistake.

"In vino veritas", obviously not in my case!

I can barely support my head.

[ Moderator: Apologies, I should have said Heading corrected by Moderator :( ]

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Its what people do. ....Its only been since feb this year that things have started to turn, the more it looks like its happening the more people want, greed, we are all guilty of it in some form, some people will alter it slightly and call it ambition or some other word.

Chuz has a good understanding of human nature imho. Like he says, prices have stopped rising, but folks adjusted their expectations here rather quickly. No rise was no good any longer. Suddenly, only dramatic falls would do.

So to those impatient bears I say this: stop thinking about how YOU feel an dtry to put yourself in the mind of those who are likely to precipitate a crash. Imagine having bought in Aug 2004. Imagine having taken an LTV of 80% or higher. Imagine being leveraged at a multiple of 5 times your salary. Imagine having remortgaged your property portfolio to double its value in Aug 04, reducing your equity percentage to the bear minimum. Imagine MEWing to support a lifestyle your income won't pay for. Imagine having a second debt secured against your home topay off large credit card debts.

Imagine banking on HPI to stay afloat.

Now can you see where this comes from: "We have fewer transactions going through now than in 1974 and that is very, very scary." (Kirstie Allsopp)

To paraphrase Dirty Harry, is now the time to blink punk????

Edited by Sledgehead

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High street always dies, it will come back to life I promise

Car sales - ditto

Energy - been there in the 1970s..... and? Life went on

Potential rate decreases or stability

Unemployment often rises and falls and its still way below previous recessionary periods

Wage inflation low, good, maintains competitivness

Bankcrupties up to to easy process, my brother and his partner both separately did this just because they were fed - up paying off c cards

Repos - still very low, sure a few casualties are innevitable when lending is loose

Im a neg - head often, but I still see opportunity everywhere

REMEMBER - THERE WERE MORE MILLIONAIRES AT THE END OF THE LAST RECESSION THAN AT THE START

Its all a game. Imagine standing on the Moon looking at earth - Humans are pretty irrelevant you know.

i know very little about economics and have always wondered how countries like the US and Britain even in 1976 when we had to borrow from the IMF never have Argentinian style economic collapses.....

eg four years ago Argentine currency lost 3 quarters of its value overnight and a third of the population lost their jobs............

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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