Nationwide Warns That House Prices Are Likely To Fall

[crash 2005]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1876393,00.html

This report from the nationwide is enough to put any potential BTL or SIPPS investor off, and cause a major loss of confidence in the market, especially as its from a vested interest.

If this gets onto TV it will certainly make for a subdued housing market prior to xmas and beyond

The top mortgage lender delivered its bleak assessment of the housing market as it unveiled a 13 per cent rise in its pre-tax profits to £254.7 million for the first half, helped by diversifying into new financial services areas.

The Nationwide argued that next year's price falls will be "modest" and that its outlook for the economy next year was "benign". It suggested that it would benefit from the trends as falling house prices brought new buyers into the market.

the last paragraph.....

hello, what morons buy into a declining market

also

In banking and consumer lending, it bumped up personal loan advances by 29 per cent to £701 million.

what does that tell you?

this country is maxed up in debt...

this will be a major major trigger in its self

Edited November 17, 2005 by crash 2005

[Fudge]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1876393,00.html

This report from the nationwide is enough to put any potential BTL or SIPPS investor off, and cause a major loss of confidence in the market, especially as its from a vested interest.

If this gets onto TV it will certainly make for a subdued housing market prior to xmas and beyond

the last paragraph.....

hello, what morons buy into a declining market

also

what does that tell you?

this country is maxed up in debt...

this will be a major major trigger in its self

In the last year VI have gone from house prices are increasing, to well maybe stagnation to err well

modest price falls!

[Goat]

If Nationwide are publically predicting modest falls next year can we assume that they are privately expecting rapid falls.

Secondly, they expect the market to stabilise in the second half of next year, on what possible grounds can they base this?

[oracle]

If Nationwide are publically predicting modest falls next year can we assume that they are privately expecting rapid falls.

Secondly, they expect the market to stabilise in the second half of next year, on what possible grounds can they base this?

I think they mean that 1% per month falls for a prolonged period could be perceived as both stable"not accelerating to 2%,then 3% etc.....and modest(or moderate,or some other b0ll0cks word which isn't soft)

[sign_of_the_times]

[

House prices are likely to fall in the first half of 2006, with price growth becoming virtually stagnant by the end of next year, Britain's biggest building society the Nationwide warned today.

all you pussies that have caved in recently, read and weep

[Guest consa]

I think they mean that 1% per month falls for a prolonged period could be perceived as both stable"not accelerating to 2%,then 3% etc.....and modest(or moderate,or some other b0ll0cks word which isn't soft)

Hi Oracle, good to see you are still around, I take it you are going for the 1% MOM falls as a likely scenario as well, BTW you got ugly

[erranta]

[

all you pussies that have caved in recently, read and weep

Somebody is gonna get relegated back to the MONKEY house @ this rate!

[MRMX9]

Does the Nationwide say anything about regional differentials e.g. will prices in London fall more or less than in the North East?

[Tempest]

No surprise that the pinker than pink BBC Tristrams mention nothing of any falls next year...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4444958.stm

News while you wait, freshly washed, spun and (the sad viewer believer's that they condescend to) hung out to dry.

PLEASE someone in the mainstream media who reads this site pick up on this Nationwide remark in their report - "price FALLS in 2006". You'll be first to raise it in the mainstream and look all clever and prescient in flagging it against the VI tide. Or perhaps you'll just pump out what you're told - everything's just peachy apparently.

Carry on.

[Flash]

This is an absolute joke.

I have just read the Times and the BBC articles and I can't believe that they are talking about the same story.

How can can one say that the Nationwide said that prices will FALL in 2006, while the other says that little GROWTH will occur in 2006.

This is beyond spin now. It is plain misrepresentation of the facts.

Which one is guilty? :angry:

[Elizabeth]

This is an absolute joke.

I have just read the Times and the BBC articles and I can't believe that they are talking about the same story.

How can can one say that the Nationwide said that prices will FALL in 2006, while the other says that little GROWTH will occur in 2006.

This is beyond spin now. It is plain misrepresentation of the facts.

Which one is guilty? :angry:

Short-term forcasting is a load of b*ll*cks. I have noticed the mood dampen in the last week or so. The problem is waiting. Settle in. It could be a haul. This site is for the meantime! Where is Dr Bubb by the way? He doesn't seem to be posting very much at all and he adds bite to the board (not least because there seems to be an anti-Bubb army that rises up every time he posts)

[oracle]

Hi Oracle, good to see you are still around, I take it you are going for the 1% MOM falls as a likely scenario as well, BTW you got ugly

Hi consa,I think my piccy does me justice.I'm flattered!

yup,am going for the 1% falls after christmas.....probably get YOY -ve by december so the pace should accelerate a bit IMO.

...I'm looking forward to april though....I've got a feeling we'll start seeing some MAJOR falls come the summer as SIPPS goes t1ts-up and loads of lay-offs happen.

Edited November 19, 2005 by oracle

[Guest Alright Jack]

I can explain the Nationwide position here. It makes sense really.

Nationwide are the largest building society.

Sipps and the new tax laws regarding investment are MAJOR issues - whether you like to admit it or not.

People buying into SIPPS will borrow LESS

[bubbleturbo]

I can explain the Nationwide position here. It makes sense really.

Nationwide are the largest building society.

Sipps and the new tax laws regarding investment are MAJOR issues - whether you like to admit it or not.

People buying into SIPPS will borrow LESS

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...opic=16605&st=0

Yawn.

Nationwide have got to say this. They were able to get away with it this year cos of the rises in the early parts of 2004.

Now their YOY is coming down to 0% cos they have no rising numbers to pad it out from 12 months before.

Alright Jack. You are a bit of a norbert really aren't you. I like the way you are in the "trolls" group. Pretty spot on there as your inflamatory username suggests.

[Dames]

I can explain the Nationwide position here. It makes sense really.

Nationwide are the largest building society.

Sipps and the new tax laws regarding investment are MAJOR issues - whether you like to admit it or not.

People buying into SIPPS will borrow LESS

Sound familiar:

All house prices `may fall'

House prices throughout the country could fall next year, the Halifax Building Society says in its latest survey. It is the first Halifax price index to forecast a fall in prices. Until now, it has said prices next year would be

flat.

The Times

FRI 04 AUG 1989

[BuyingBear]

The ripple effect is complete with Scotland stalling :-

Scottish house price boom fades

The boom in house prices in Scotland is begging to peter out, new figures reveal.

Property values north of the border have been accelerating far longer than their southern counterparts - which have been struggling for more than a year - but the slowdown now appears to have crossed Hadrian's wall.

[Guest Alright Jack]

This report from the nationwide is enough to put any potential BTL or SIPPS investor off, and cause a major loss of confidence in the market, especially as its from a vested interest.

This is what I meant in the other thread.

Nationwide want to sell to people who can't afford to buy houses (so have to borrow)

They want to discourage investors and the 'wall of [real] money' from sipps and other tax exempt vehicles in favour of traditional market participants.

A statement like this will put off investors but the normal homebuyer is never put of buying.

[Time to raise the rents.]

Well we landlords can do our bit to maintain the value of property by raising our rents as usual......

[Levy process]

Well we landlords can do our bit to maintain the value of property by raising our rents as usual......

You can only raise the rents as far as the market will tolerate. You don't decide anything. You merely respond.

This is the last time I reply to one of your posts, because you simply retreat into silence when challenged with reasoned argument. I now rate you as a very uninteresting poster as a result. I will be ignoring your future postings.

[BuyingBear]

Well we landlords can do our bit to maintain the value of property by raising our rents as usual......

Luckily for renters the wanna-beenie TTRTR's of this world are driving an oversupply and therefore rents down, they're desperate to at least get half the monthly mortgage bill covered.

Maybe you could cram another into the old coal shed to make up for the shortfall

Edited November 20, 2005 by BuyingBear

[Michael]

Yes, it's very encouraging indeed, thought it would take longer tbh. This crash may be in its infancy but it seems to have learnt how to run before it can walk...

i still think it needs a trigger to start the crash.........all previous crashes have had one........

by ''crashes'' i mean falls in real (inflation adjusted) terms.......1988-95 was the only time prices fell in absolute(nominal) terms....................minus 27% in the London area and 11% elsewhere....

[Guest Riser]

Reported in todays Sunday Times:

Nationwide: no house price growth for a year

Nationwide: no house price growth for a year

By Miles Costello

House prices are likely to fall in the first half of 2006, with price growth becoming virtually stagnant by the end of next year, Britain's biggest building society the Nationwide warned today.

The top mortgage lender delivered its bleak assessment of the housing market as it unveiled a 13 per cent rise in its pre-tax profits to £254.7 million for the first half, helped by diversifying into new financial services areas.

The Nationwide argued that next year's price falls will be "modest" and that its outlook for the economy next year was "benign". It suggested that it would benefit from the trends as falling house prices brought new buyers into the market.

"Softer house prices are expected to encourage activity which will translate into lending for house purchases. Remortgaging is also expected to continue to be important, but will be driven by pricing rather than the desire to withdraw equity," the Nationwide said.

"Strong competition among lenders and interest rate reductions are the motivations behind this. Net lending will be affected by lower levels of equity withdrawal but will remain fairly robust, albeit lower than last year."

Recent surveys have suggested that house prices - after a volatile year with real falls in most areas of the country - are beginning to recover their momentum.

The Nationwide is still convinced that price falls are "controlled" and that there will be no market crash, as was feared early on in the year.

As it published its interim results today, the Nationwide said its strategy of increasing its presence in savings, banking and insurance, had helped to increase underlying profits by 16.7 per cent to £261 million.

Its assets grew by 5.5 per cent to £117.7 billion during the period and it attracted 400,000 new members.

Philip Williamson, the chief executive, said: "Once again we have delivered a strong performance in a highly competitive market. Far from being a building society purely focused on mortgages and savings, we are now competing very effectively in the current account, credit card and personal loan markets."

The lender, which prides itself on offering the same terms and rates to existing as well as new borrowers, argued that during the first half of the year it generared about £350 million of "pricing benefit" for its customers as a result of offering better rates and charging lower fees than its competitors.

Although the Nationwide improved its market share in both the savings and investment markets, claiming a 9.4 per cent share of savings with a customer balance of £76.7 billion, the lender lost ground in mortages.

Having claimed an 8.7 per cent share of mortgage lending at this point last year, the Nationwide made gross loan advances of £10.8 billion in the first half of 2005 to end up with a market share of 7.3 per cent.

In life assurance and investments, the Nationwide claimed 4.9 per cent of the market for ISA sales - up from 3.8 per cent last year.

In banking and consumer lending, it bumped up personal loan advances by 29 per cent to £701 million.

National inflation adjusted HPI supported by Scotland and Northern Ireland

Scotland HPI 4% and falling

Northern Ireland HPI still over 8% but more to do with Irish market than UK, NI should fall fast once EU rates rise this month. The Irish market is one of the most over inflated bubbles in the world, it is going to be one hell of a bang and leave te Irish with the mother of all financial hang overs.

Edited November 20, 2005 by Riser

[crash 2005]

just thought everyone would like a reminder of the divide in opinion of the vested interests

at least this one from the nationwide sounds a more plausable report of the current market, and not the proposed pre-floatation to the stockmarket spin coming from rightmove.

[Guest Homer]

[Northern Ireland HPI still over 8% but more to do with Irish market than UK, NI should fall fast once EU rates rise this month. The Irish market is one of the most over inflated bubbles in the world, it is going to be one hell of a bang and leave te Irish with the mother of all financial hang overs.

Northern Ireland has nothing to do with the market in the Republic of Ireland. We are part of the UK. We just take longer to react to changes because we are still evolving in our own way as well as following the wider UK market (by this I mean quality of life has been gradually increasing since things stabilised).

[Flash]

Northern Ireland has nothing to do with the market in the Republic of Ireland. We are part of the UK.

I don't want to offend and I know this issue is sensitive, but I am not sure I agree with you on that point.

Many "investors" in the Republic are still piling into NI property, because they don't see so much value in the Republic these days. They simply compare Dublin and Belfast and think that the latter is cheap. I think that is a strong element of what is driving the NI market at the moment.

They are not comparing apples with apples of course, and many are simply muppet amateurs with zero ability to accurately value an asset. But that will not stop them all time the banks are throwing free money around.