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Not in the bit of the North I inhabit, West Yorkshire. Two/three terraced properties approximately double 2001/2 prices.

He's talking pish.

Average family home in East Yokshire in a decent area will still set you back over £140k in localities were the average wage is < £20k.

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Very clear split into 3 zones, London, South and North, and if we guess the average house costs half the current value in the North, then graph 1 indicates land tax before adjusting for removal of existing taxes should be set in the ratio North 100, South 200, London 300. Imagine having to pay overall 3 x the tax contribution to run a business in London than run same business in the North. That would help ease the squeeze into the SE.

Yes one could do it with fiscal adjustments, or my preferred mechanism would be a variable interest rate on loans for land development/businesses.

At the moment it's very obvious that outside London/SE is subsidising London/SE in a pro-cyclical bubble generating machine.

Which is exactly how the City (and thus the government) like it. Hence why they do sweet fa to change it.

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What happened to the cash buyer?

Aside from the obvious, over the last couple of years I've seen a lot of people purchasing multiple BTL properties with mortgages rather than paying down their residential property - which those type of people would have probably done in the 90s.

Another trend recently has been people downsizing their London properties to a 1 bed flat and moving out in to the counties - splitting time between both locations.

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Aside from the obvious, over the last couple of years I've seen a lot of people purchasing multiple BTL properties with mortgages rather than paying down their residential property - which those type of people would have probably done in the 90s.

Thus maximising the power of leverage

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Source of finance (posted by @resi_analyst)

BRJHoETCAAIEtml.png

What happened to the cash buyer?

Might high inflation (both in general and HPs) have inflated away the capital and interest payments of the previous mortgage leaving a huge lump sum on the sale of that property to purchase the next one? (also add in the ability to save when the mortgage payments have been significantly reduced by inflation)

The notes on the graph suggest some of the data might be a bit shakey - it suggests that they know total transactions from HMRC and have constructed cash transactions as total transaction - mortgage transactions but that the mortgage transactions might be under counting due to data collection issues (i.e. not all financial institutions members of the the CML at the time?)

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Last night the thought of actually joining in with the ponzi crossed my mind. My theory was that the HTB etc will continue for the next 3 years at least, maybe I should buy with the HTB free loan, then sell it in 3 or 4 years time, before the crash starts. Are you allowed savings to take up the HTB?

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Last night the thought of actually joining in with the ponzi crossed my mind. My theory was that the HTB etc will continue for the next 3 years at least, maybe I should buy with the HTB free loan, then sell it in 3 or 4 years time, before the crash starts. Are you allowed savings to take up the HTB?

It depends how lucky you're feeling. Get the timing wrong and you'd be sitting on an illiquid, depreciating, asset and chasing the market down in an attempt to get out again. Far too much hassle and risk for me.

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Last night the thought of actually joining in with the ponzi crossed my mind. My theory was that the HTB etc will continue for the next 3 years at least, maybe I should buy with the HTB free loan, then sell it in 3 or 4 years time, before the crash starts. Are you allowed savings to take up the HTB?

Newbuild only too, so you'll pay a premium for it to start with. If you want a punt, why not go to the bookies or buy some shares? Unless you have a six figure sum burning a hole in your pocket, need high stakes for the thrill and/or would be otherwise unaffected by the plan going south, is it really a good idea?

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Apparently house prices and buying activity are soaring at rates last seen in 2006.

so 2013-14, this is the tipping point, (and please none of that "in real terms" nosh)

If the bubble doesn't burst after this, then they never will, and a new domain name will have to be created for this site.

Edited by PopGun
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Apparently house prices and buying activity are soaring at rates last seen in 2006.

so 2013-14, this is the tipping point, (and please none of that "in real terms" nosh)

If the bubble doesn't burst after this, then they never will, and a new domain name will have to be created for this site.

How about "Serfdom R Us"?

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It depends how lucky you're feeling. Get the timing wrong and you'd be sitting on an illiquid, depreciating, asset and chasing the market down in an attempt to get out again. Far to much hassle and risk for me.

And to think somebody accused you of being an EA.... :lol:

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Along the same lines

130609-3.jpg

or in Real terms

130609-4.jpg

Source

Great charts WICAO. I think we have a complete set now. And I think it's very important for people to realise that London/SE local earnings cannot sustain these local prices:

(Edit: Unfortunately mine stops at 2011, as they've stopped publishing the regional average, god only knows why.)

hptoearningsbyregion.png

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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