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@contradevian

Uk House Prices Since Peak

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The London peak has a typo, says£249k instead of £349k.

Now living in the NW, the second best HPC performer. The precipitous real decline is good to see but it needs saying that given wages have failed to keep pace, the support base should be lower than in the nineties. Seems we'll be testing that theory out soon enough, well about three years on current trends.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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The UK will be going it alone this time, there is little house price inflation in Europe. The last house price boom was international, so this time the UK will be the odd one out.

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The UK will be going it alone this time, there is little house price inflation in Europe. The last house price boom was international, so this time the UK will be the odd one out.

I'm not convinced we are going to get a bubble in the UK either (London and SE excepted). Bearing mind the have been pretty static since peak and they have thrown the book at keeping them high.

Lack of supply is an issue though, and it seems that "To Let" signs are starting to outnumber "For sale" signs with landlords picking up stock at just off off peak prices. All the hideously overpriced non selling tat, ends up on Rightmove.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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We sold this week for 55k above asking price. Took 5 days and we had 3 lots of bidders.

House needs a lot of work yet went for more than fully renovated neighbour did at peak. Cambridge market is in full on bubble.

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We sold this week for 55k above asking price. Took 5 days and we had 3 lots of bidders.

House needs a lot of work yet went for more than fully renovated neighbour did at peak. Cambridge market is in full on bubble.

Some EAs in Swansea are ramping truly ludicrous asking prices now. I saw a house come on this week for 425 asking whereas in 2007 it would have sold for 200 and, a year ago, would have probably have sold for 180ish.

Whether someone will buy or whether a bank will give a mortgage at that price is the question. But Carney's ZIRP and Help to Buy is allowing EAs to drive up asking prices by ramping acfoss the board.

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In the past week I have seen claims in the press from various VIs that house prices will rise 6.9% to 9.5% this year.

Even if you put all your money into shares you would not get a dividend that matches anywhere near that and, assuming you believe it to be true, would be relying on your shares to increase considerably just to match the about house price increase figures.

Sadly, sellers just see the headline figures and EAs see the opportunity.

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In the past week I have seen claims in the press from various VIs that house prices will rise 6.9% to 9.5% this year.

Even if you put all your money into shares you would not get a dividend that matches anywhere near that and, assuming you believe it to be true, would be relying on your shares to increase considerably just to match the about house price increase figures.

Sadly, sellers just see the headline figures and EAs see the opportunity.

If you want to buy, then buy.

No more woe is me posts

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If you want to buy, then buy.

No more woe is me posts

Nah, even if I bought I would still come here like all the other HPCers who have bought in the past 18 months who still come here - to read the head stuck in the sand posts.

Oh, didn't you know - lots have quietly bought but still post here!?

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Well, you won't mind a lot more in the coming months will you.

Who cares? Good luck to them especially if they have families. At least they are free of a unprofessional private landlords and sleazy letting agents.

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As for doubting a bubble will appear - it has never deflated. We are in a bubble (no link between price and the ability to pay), just the politicians and other VI's are keen to keep it going. The music has stopped and the parcel is very smelly, it is only a matter of time before the Richard is unwrapped.

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Along the same lines

130609-3.jpg

or in Real terms

130609-4.jpg

Source

What's clear from those charts is that the one size fits all monetary policy (and complete absence of fiscal policy) for the sterling zone as a whole is a complete failure.

Monetary / fiscal policy needs to be tigher in London/SE and looser in rest of UK.

Carney completely ducked that issue y'day, preferring to hand off that responsibility to the FPC/PRA (with his other hat on) who have done zippo to address it.

The imbalances will continue to get worse in London with his forward guidance

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What's clear from those charts is that the one size fits all monetary policy (and complete absence of fiscal policy) for the sterling zone as a whole is a complete failure.

Monetary / fiscal policy needs to be tigher in London/SE and looser in rest of UK.

Carney completely ducked that issue y'day, preferring to hand off that responsibility to the FPC/PRA (with his other hat on) who have done zippo to address it.

The imbalances will continue to get worse in London with his forward guidance

Yep, looking at that graph London is an absolute monster that's increasingly dominating the UK economy. Obviously that's not really news to anyone but it's quite striking when seen in those HPI numbers. Up north real house prices are back at 1995 levels. Lucky bar stewards, as long as you've got a good job up there, of which there are few I guess.

Just think about the recent major public works or transport investment in the UK. It's ALL London, no wonder the UK economy is so divergent:

Heathrow T5, HS1 (channel link), Cross Rail, New Wembley, Jubilee extension, Millennium Dome, Olympic Games. Even HS2, which is supposed to connect the North to London, could be argued to be a project that benefits London even more, making it accessible to an even larger number of commuters.

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Yep, looking at that graph London is an absolute monster that's increasingly dominating the UK economy. Obviously that's not really news to anyone but it's quite striking when seen in those HPI numbers. Up north real house prices are back at 1995 levels. Lucky bar stewards, as long as you've got a good job up there, of which there are few I guess.

Just think about the recent major public works or transport investment in the UK. It's ALL London, no wonder the UK economy is so divergent:

Heathrow T5, HS1 (channel link), Cross Rail, New Wembley, Jubilee extension, Millennium Dome, Olympic Games. Even HS2, which is supposed to connect the North to London, could be argued to be a project that benefits London even more, making it accessible to an even larger number of commuters.

Only as far as purchasing power goes though, which is fine if your wages have kept pace with that. For many, despite the erosion of prices in 'real' terms, they remain stubbornly high relative to their wages. Moving in the right direction though, so hey ho.

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We sold this week for 55k above asking price. Took 5 days and we had 3 lots of bidders.

House needs a lot of work yet went for more than fully renovated neighbour did at peak. Cambridge market is in full on bubble.

Thanks for the update.

The thing with housing market is that it is always transacting at the margin and there is always people who feel they have to buy at all cost.

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Source of finance (posted by @resi_analyst)

BRJHoETCAAIEtml.png

What happened to the cash buyer?

Edited by aSecureTenant

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The North is a big place, please can you give a source

Not in the bit of the North I inhabit, West Yorkshire. Two/three terraced properties approximately double 2001/2 prices.

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Along the same lines

130609-3.jpg

or in Real terms

130609-4.jpg

Source

Very clear split into 3 zones, London, South and North, and if we guess the average house costs half the current value in the North, then graph 1 indicates land tax before adjusting for removal of existing taxes should be set in the ratio North 100, South 200, London 300. Imagine having to pay overall 3 x the tax contribution to run a business in London than run same business in the North. That would help ease the squeeze into the SE.

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Anyone got a graph of volumes of sales by region?

I just cannot see where the money is coming from. With that in mind, the data outside of the South East must be totally skewed by a much lower volume of sales.

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