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Things Overlooked By Hpc Members


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I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

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I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

Awooooooooooooooooooooooooggggggggggggaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I don't think he's a troll, he's just been tempted by the dark side... :ph34r:

One thing you neglected to mention is that as a first time buyer (which you obviously aren't going by your username) the stakes become a little higher. Lets says I buy a flat now for 200k and 2 years down the line it goes down 40% in value to 120k. So, if I had rented for those 2 years I would have £80,000 less to pay on your mortgage...

The worst mistake you can make is to think of a house as anything other than as an investment.

Edited by Sparker
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Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

Precisely the reason houses are overpriced and due for a correction. When everybody expects a single asset to be "the only" way to make money, it is the top.

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I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

You are right that a lot of people (on both sides of the argument for and against a house price crash) interpret data (consciously or unconsciously) so that it will support their own opinions.

However, the challenge is to see all sides of the argument and decide objectively which side has got the most conviincing data/arguments. I get the impression that a lot of people on the site are quite technically minded and quite interested in economics and politics generally. They enjoy this challenge.

May I challenge you to see 'the other side of the coin' when considering, as you quite rightly say, that there has been an increasing obsession with houses in the UK, largely fuelled by TV programmes: could it not be that this obsession has driven people to buy houses at inflated prices which they wouldn't have entertained if it hadn't been for all this hype? Might not this have caused an unsustainable and irrational acceleration of prices, ie. 'a bubble'? Will the prices stay high if the hype stops?

Lastly, I personally find your views on a house being 'a place to live' very creditable and human. However, in strict economic terms, you may live in your house 'rent free' once you have paid off your mortgage, but the 'cost' (which I think economists call the opportunity cost) is how much you could make if you sold the house and put the money in the bank and got a good rate of interest for it.

So where would you live? you ask. Well, the point is, you MIGHTj (and this is where another big debate really starts) be able to RENT an equally nice and pleasing and comfortable house for LESS than the interest you are earning on your money in the bank from the house sale. The DIFFERENCE between these sums is what you LOSE if you just treat your house as 'a place to live' (although I agree that you might think your life is much nicer without worrying about such things - and you could be right about that).

If you like, the sum you LOSE by not selling as detailed above, is actually the RENT which you ARE paying ot live in your 'rent-free' house.

Welcome to hpc!!!!

Edited by Key Worker
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I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

Thanks. Still can't afford to buy though. Am told I get a decent salary. Ergo -> expect crash.

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This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Of course that's if you want to live in it for a decade or two ? Are you so shortsighted and do you really believe personal situations can't and won't change ?

Take a look around. It's the UK plc economy that's broken, not house prices. The prices are high because of misguided perceived wealth.

Rest asured, that's all about to change and you won't want to be in a property with a sale price of 40% less than you paid for it.

Unfortunately, there isn't a single rational economic factor left that supports the current inflated prices. It has to end soon and there will be a sharp initial correction. The old "you can't build land" and "prices never fall do they" arguments won't keep this mess going forever.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

Welcome homeowner (for the record, I don't think you're a troll either).

To take your points in order.

(1) The point of this site does influence the way we see the market or the economy as a whole although most of us don't anticipate a rapid reduction in prices, rather a slow decline over 2-3 years at least.

(2) I would agree that there has been an obsession with property over the past 5-6 years and this is strongly influencing the all-important sentiment factor needed for a HPC to really get going. Nothing stays the same however and I think we're already seeing a move away from property shows and a decline in confidence in housing in general as the market has stalled over the past year.

(3) If you can afford to buy and are just looking for a home to live in, fair enough. I could afford to buy something but it wouldn't be much different to where I am now, so why should I bother. If ownership is what drives me, I could buy my council flat for cash right now.

Although the housing market is ticking along at the moment, it's too finely balanced and fragile. All it would take would be a minor recession or a small rise in interest rates (both seem like reasonable possibilities to me) and the bubble will pop.

I want to be as far away as possible when it does.

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I have been looking at the posts on this site for some time now and especially when I was deciding whether to take the plunge and buy a house recently.

I feel however that a few things are being overlooked on this site due to the bias of the people whose community this is. I also wish to add that I have recently made an investment in property but do not neccessarily belive the market is stable.

Firstly when I was looking for a house I wanted to belive there would be a rapid reduction in house prices and the comments on this forum gave credibility to this notion. (basically the whole idea of this site is to support the notion of a house price crash and analyse the data in ways to support your collective views)

Secondly the way this society percieves property has changed radically over the last 6 years. The people of this country have become obsessed with property development & investment witch is reflected in the miriad of television programs aimed at these people. In short people genrally see property as a long term good investment. (the creation and maintenance of his site is testament to the obsession with property and while there is interest in property it will remain valuable)

And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

Houses seem to be the only thing we expect to make money on... People spend money on electrical goods cars and clothes fully aware that these things plumet in price from the day of purchase.

Could I politely suggest that these things haven't in fact been overlooked by HPCers.

Your first point doesn't seem to have much of a point. You say you wanted to believe there would be a rapid reduction. I accept we may have overlooked what you personally wanted but this adds nothing to the overall picture. I think most HPCers, despite the "crash" word, actually believe the decline will take years to play out.

The idea of this site is to debate whether/why there will bea "crash", although I'd agree there is a definite bias towards the "yes" answer. However, I suspect this was not really overlooked by most HPCers.

And I can't help but feel that your second point has been somewhat noticed by one or two HPCers. The majority of users of this site believe this radical change is temporary rather than permanent (a "bubble").

Again, in relation to your last point, I suspect that most HPCers are aware that houses are fundamentally homes. They were homes in 1990 too... but that didn't mean they didn't see a 50% or so real terms correction in value, similarly in 1980, 1974 etc.

Not wishing to be rude but I can't help feeling these issues have been "done to death" on this site.

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They were homes in 1990 too... but that didn't mean they didn't see a 50% or so real terms correction in value, similarly in 1980, 1974 etc.

Not wishing to be rude but I can't help feeling these issues have been "done to death" on this site.

Sorry... I am a bit new to this site....

Two more questions I have... One what is a "troll"?

And secondly if there is a 40% drop do you expect to loose money or gain in the next 25 years. What I am really asking is if my house decreases over the next 3-4 years do you think it is a good investment in the long run or not?

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A troll is someone who posts purely to wind-up other posters - purely negatively with no attempt to entire a sensible debate or make a valid point.

Search for "troll" and you can find definitions etc.

Essentially a lot of people who don't believe (or don't want to believe) in a HPC comes over to try to get a rise out of HPCers - usually by posting how rich they are, how tenants are scum... etc.

As for your second question, it is a little more difficult to answer. I would say (in as far as I know better than anyone else what is going to happen 25 years from now!) that your house will be worth more than it is today so you "gain" in nominal terms. However, prices generally will have risen a lot by then too so you will lose out on that.

The arguments of most HPCers is not that you will definitely still have lost money in 25 years but more that you COULD be much richer if you wait and buy later and/or invest somewhere more profitable. The "opportunity cost" of buying at the top of the market is potentially huge and could leave you permanently poorer compared with people around you.

To give an example, if you bought at the top of the last property boom (on average across the UK - Q3 1989 using Nationwide data) you would have got your nominal value back by Q1 1998) so nearly ten years. However, much of this increase was about inflation.

After you adjust for inflation (RPI) the peak was actually in Q2 1989 and this level was regained in Q1 2002 (nearly 13 years). That is, a 13-year (ungeared) investment had seen no actual increase in its value.

Furthermore, by taking on large debt you potentially store up more problems for the future (as circumstances change in ways you didn't expect you do not have the flexibility to adapt and are more likely to be severly hurt financially). For example, if you find your property down 40% and you MUST sell - for reasons such as no longer being able to meet the mortgage repayments etc.

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Homeowner,

in answer to your lamentation that people see houses as an investment, not a commodity like others -

Well, you could see houses as a commodity. But they are a rather specidal commodity. You can expect to pass them down for generations if that's what your future family wants. You can't really do that with a car, which depreciates much faster.

Also, houses sit on land, which is a very special commodity indeed. No human existence or economic activity can take place without it. If you have a freehold, you own a slice of it forever, or more realistically, as long as our society and its laws hold together. (That doesn't of course, mean that it necessarily has a 'high' value, as there is quite a lot of it, and various ways of owning or renting it.)

As for people's attitudes in general towards housing, like other social attitudes, they are very much of their time and place. Our grandparents wouldn't have thought of houses in the same way, and people in quite close countries such as Germany have very different views too.

Will your house be a good investment over 25 years despite short-term losses? Really, nobody knows, and don't believe anyone who says they do. Think: someone whose mortgage ends this year bought in say 1980 when a Conservative government had just won a landslide victory under the leadership of one Margaret Thatcher. Since then, unions have lost their power, the EU has become much more important, the Berlin Wall has come down, council houses have been sold off, and everyone goes around with their own private walkie-talkies called mobile phones. What will the world be like in 25 years? You tell me.

Some people on this site have done calcualations showing that if you bought and sold at the right moments over the last 25 years you would have done much better financially than if you had stayed put.(I have to wonder if any of these people have got children though- moving isn't always so simple.) However, as you have probably heard before, the past is not always a good guide to the future.

Perhaps one thing which is overlooked on the site is that you have to look at your own personal circumstances and see what suits you and makes you happy. Only YOU can say this.

Edited by Key Worker
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Furthermore, by taking on large debt you potentially store up more problems for the future (as circumstances change in ways you didn't expect you do not have the flexibility to adapt and are more likely to be severly hurt financially). For example, if you find your property down 40% and you MUST sell - for reasons such as no longer being able to meet the mortgage repayments etc.

But if its all about making money and all the FTB on this site are just waiting for their turn on the property carosel isn't thre a danger that they themselvels will keep property prices inflated.

Example:

Say a house worth £100,000 is for sale this month everyone on this site conceeds that it is overvalued. A month elapses and the property is reduced to £95,000 most people agree that it is still overpriced and in line with the expected correction over the next few years will only accept it to be worth £60.000 however desperate FTB who is dying to take the plunge feels that a substancial drop has occured and offers £92.000 which is accepted. By doing this he is not allowing the full effect of the crash to occur therefore actually propping the market up himself.

Thats what could be said to be happening now.. (Prices have dropped but people are still buying in dribs and drabs enought to stave off a full crash) Up to now may I add.

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And my last point is that which I recently told a friend who was deliberating upon weather or not to purchase a property for himself and his family. At the end of he day investment in the future aside; a house is a place to live. And in the end you will be able to live in it rent free that is the aim for most of us. This being the case if my house lost 40% of its value I would not frantically struggle to sell it but continue to live in it reguardless of its market price (which is only relevent when buying or selling)

If you have bought a house in the last 3 years and, as you say, it falls by 40% you will not continue to live in it. At such a time IRs will have skyrocketed and you will be kicked out of your house, declared bankrupt and will be living in debt for the rest of your life.

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Furthermore, by taking on large debt you potentially store up more problems for the future (as circumstances change in ways you didn't expect you do not have the flexibility to adapt and are more likely to be severly hurt financially). For example, if you find your property down 40% and you MUST sell - for reasons such as no longer being able to meet the mortgage repayments etc.

But if its all about making money and all the FTB on this site are just waiting for their turn on the property carosel isn't thre a danger that they themselvels will keep property prices inflated.

Example:

Say a house worth £100,000 is for sale this month everyone on this site conceeds that it is overvalued. A month elapses and the property is reduced to £95,000 most people agree that it is still overpriced and in line with the expected correction over the next few years will only accept it to be worth £60.000 however desperate FTB who is dying to take the plunge feels that a substancial drop has occured and offers £92.000 which is accepted. By doing this he is not allowing the full effect of the crash to occur therefore actually propping the market up himself.

Thats what could be said to be happening now.. (Prices have dropped but people are still buying in dribs and drabs enought to stave off a full crash) Up to now may I add.

Umm you kinda have that wrong, houses HAVE to be sold to set the new price. You cannot just wake up one day and say ok houses are now worth 40% less, there has to be sales to drive the market down. Otherwise someone would wake up one day and buy the house for 40% less and you would say that it hasnt reached its bottom.

We need people to drive the market down, its how it works, 'dribs and drabs' is exactly what does it, it does not stave off a full crash it is the crash. Do you think that a full crash is when no one buys a house at all for 3 years then suddendly some magical force says that they are 40% cheaper? :blink:

It is exactly what is _supposed_ to happen in a crash IMHO.

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As for your second question, it is a little more difficult to answer. I would say (in as far as I know better than anyone else what is going to happen 25 years from now!) that your house will be worth more than it is today so you "gain" in nominal terms. However, prices generally will have risen a lot by then too so you will lose out on that.

The arguments of most HPCers is not that you will definitely still have lost money in 25 years but more that you COULD be much richer if you wait and buy later and/or invest somewhere more profitable. The "opportunity cost" of buying at the top of the market is potentially huge and could leave you permanently poorer compared with people around you.

To give an example, if you bought at the top of the last property boom (on average across the UK - Q3 1989 using Nationwide data) you would have got your nominal value back by Q1 1998) so nearly ten years. However, much of this increase was about inflation.

After you adjust for inflation (RPI) the peak was actually in Q2 1989 and this level was regained in Q1 2002 (nearly 13 years). That is, a 13-year (ungeared) investment had seen no actual increase in its value.

Furthermore, by taking on large debt you potentially store up more problems for the future (as circumstances change in ways you didn't expect you do not have the flexibility to adapt and are more likely to be severly hurt financially). For example, if you find your property down 40% and you MUST sell - for reasons such as no longer being able to meet the mortgage repayments etc.

Good example LL. Another is on my thread highlighting the zero real returns on property bought at the (v high) 1973 house price peak over the next 25 years to 1998. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=19081&hl=

Housing is an "investment" only to the extent that it is inherently linked (via salaries, disposable cash, appetite for assets etc) to the to the general economy as a whole - and indeed is a good proxy for growth in the economy/GDP - it moves - with a slight lag effect - with this general performance. Within that it is subject to swings and roundabouts as housing waxes and wanes from being regarded primarily as a "home" and as "investment".

If you buy in (and out!) at the right time in the cycles then in addition to owning your home you may gain uplift in value beyond what you put in in real terms. If you buy in at the wrong point you can suffer negative returns on the money put in.

IMO, this site is, despite the odd excitable moments, less and less about just house prices and more and more the general structural problems with our economy as a whole which underpin the housing market. But the aim is still for falls.

It would be perfectly possible in another time and point in the cycle cycle for a website to exist which highlights the hidden strengths in our economy and why house prices were then at undervalued levels (a la 1993,4,5). This is not that time.

PS Not sure just how young you are but it is always the same, always different. My parents swear property was an obsessive topic in the early 1970s, new decade, prosperity, technology, new homes, conversions, flats etc. Still fell. I remeber the 1980s well. Property was crazy in the late 80s, loads of activity, new developments, docklands apartments. Still fell.

Its just a house.

Edited by Tempest
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Thats what could be said to be happening now.. (Prices have dropped but people are still buying in dribs and drabs enought to stave off a full crash) Up to now may I add.

Hi,

Who says there isn't a full crash under the surface already? Rightrack and FT index have been showing monthly falls for over a year now. If we can believe the indices at all. Are you basing it on the nationwide and Halifax? Indices that only take a very small number of properties that they choose to include in their surveys, that they don't lay open their methods and mechanics for public inspection, that they don't allow to be independently monitored? That they reported as positive well into the last crash (check the old articles on the site for previous crashes). Whoose indices are all but fallen to zero in a year, if you can believe them, who have also said they may go negative soon? Well, believe it or not, there are people in the world who want to extract cash from you! There are people who would leave you high and dry to line their own pockets and sleep very well thank you very much at night, knowing they are going to financially smash you into the ground. Gasp! Yes, it's true! Why have housing volumes increased as prices have stalled, or maybe fallen, depending where you are? Because some sellers are clinging onto past glory's of a bubble height. Things have changed except the irrational clinging to that freak price one quarter 2 years ago. So things aren't selling. The clock is ticking. the asset is falling, the market is idle, the costs are escalating for them.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust
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Furthermore, by taking on large debt you potentially store up more problems for the future (as circumstances change in ways you didn't expect you do not have the flexibility to adapt and are more likely to be severly hurt financially). For example, if you find your property down 40% and you MUST sell - for reasons such as no longer being able to meet the mortgage repayments etc.

But if its all about making money and all the FTB on this site are just waiting for their turn on the property carosel isn't thre a danger that they themselvels will keep property prices inflated.

Example:

Say a house worth £100,000 is for sale this month everyone on this site conceeds that it is overvalued. A month elapses and the property is reduced to £95,000 most people agree that it is still overpriced and in line with the expected correction over the next few years will only accept it to be worth £60.000 however desperate FTB who is dying to take the plunge feels that a substancial drop has occured and offers £92.000 which is accepted. By doing this he is not allowing the full effect of the crash to occur therefore actually propping the market up himself.

Thats what could be said to be happening now.. (Prices have dropped but people are still buying in dribs and drabs enought to stave off a full crash) Up to now may I add.

Yes, of course. The market has got a floor. The game is to guess where it is. This is not my specialism but I believe that in a slow-moving market like housing it would be quite natural for the crash/decline to occur in 'steps' rather than in one big slide. Trouble is you don't know where the last step is.

And of course, everyone is trying to second-guess everyone else, and today's FTB who is jealous of equity-rich homeowners might be tomorrow's home owner happy to safeguard his or her own position. There will be relative winners and relative losers in any market. It only matters if you genuinely believe in any kind of 'social justice' (and not necessarily the kind that TB goes on about).

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Umm you kinda have that wrong, houses HAVE to be sold to set the new price. You cannot just wake up one day and say ok houses are now worth 40% less, there has to be sales to drive the market down. Otherwise someone would wake up one day and buy the house for 40% less and you would say that it hasnt reached its bottom.

We need people to drive the market down, its how it works, 'dribs and drabs' is exactly what does it, it does not stave off a full crash it is the crash. Do you think that a full crash is when no one buys a house at all for 3 years then suddendly some magical force says that they are 40% cheaper? :blink:

It is exactly what is _supposed_ to happen in a crash IMHO.

Sorry, just saw this after my post. Perfect description Chuz. That IS the crash. £92k man sets the price, next seller prices around that benchmark, next buyer offers a little less after all there is less demand for asking prices even in a slowly declining market, seller says yes, new lower market price. After two or three years of that, bingo, looking back its 20-30% nominal falls.

Edited by Tempest
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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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