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What Happens After 2015?

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the tories kick off a mini house price boom in order, for their aims, to win the 2015 election

then what - mini 3 year moderated falls or continued taxpayer-pushed boom until 2020?

at some point global interest rates will start going up - at which point game over for house prices and another big recession?

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We have to get to 2015 first. :)

However it appears that mini growth spurt based on us all getting rich by bidding up house prices appears to be favoured economic option to restore "wealth". Whether they can achieve this is another matter although the Tories know all they need to do is secure that house price growth for the South and the North can go feck itself.

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the tories kick off a mini house price boom in order, for their aims, to win the 2015 election

then what - mini 3 year moderated falls or continued taxpayer-pushed boom until 2020?

at some point global interest rates will start going up - at which point game over for house prices and another big recession?

They're career politicians so they'll do whatever the polls tell them will increase their chances of re-election.

Either way, I expect house prices will have fallen 30% to 40% by the end of the decade, perhaps more if they go for the second option.

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This mini-boom appears to be backed by little in the way of volume. Seems to me that it's simply a ruse to pretend we are 'back to normal', whatever that means. 21 months is a long way away in the circumstances.

Can't see a Conservative Govt (or a coalition involving them) resulting from the 2015 poll, which means, well, not much really given Osborne's performance as Continuity Brown.

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We have to get to 2015 first. :)

However it appears that mini growth spurt based on us all getting rich by bidding up house prices appears to be favoured economic option to restore "wealth". Whether they can achieve this is another matter although the Tories know all they need to do is secure that house price growth for the South and the North can go feck itself.

Agreed about 2015. The US looks like it could blow a gasket long before we get to the GE. As for the UK, it's worth bearing in mind that it's not the change in debt that impacts GDP so much as the second derivative of that change i.e. the rate at which debt is accelerating. The CML figures clearly demonstrate a step-change in mortgage origination in May and June, after the introduction of Help To Buy in April. This sharp acceleration in credit money may flatter the economic stats for a month or two before settling down again. Likewise, I'd expect to see another uptick in UK economic activity before the middle of next year as the second tranche of HTB feeds through.

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They're career politicians so they'll do whatever the polls tell them will increase their chances of re-election.

Either way, I expect house prices will have fallen 30% to 40% by the end of the decade, perhaps more if they go for the second option.

Agreed

However the route we take there impacts on the wider economy in the meantime, ie our ability to stay in gainful employment

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Labour get back in, and by 2020 you're fighting in the street over the last tins of dog food.

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the tories kick off a mini house price boom in order, for their aims, to win the 2015 election

then what - mini 3 year moderated falls or continued taxpayer-pushed boom until 2020?

at some point global interest rates will start going up - at which point game over for house prices and another big recession?

you should be rather more worried about what happens next year( mar 2014 thru sep 2015 looks quite rough)

for the more esoterically minded there is also some very nasty stuff in the pipe around 2024-2026( if you are chinese and like their brand of astrology ...this is their "fire horse" year...which generally ends in warfare of some kind)

..perhaps leading to the demise of communism if they are lucky,...if they are unlucky it'll come about in much the same way as one russian general was initmating....he was referring to the fact he envisages war with china at some stage, as to what will trigger it......well russia have lots of oil and gas, and china needs it.

if russia commits too much resource to the middle east and comes off worst, then they will get savaged by china and the fourth reich.

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Labour get back in, and by 2020 you're fighting in the street over the last tins of dog food.

You still think it matters which party gets in? :huh:

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2016 will happen after 2015! I'm not Nostradamus, but I am pretty sure! :blink:

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2016. ;)

Bugger! I've just seen you beat me to it! :lol:

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you should be rather more worried about what happens next year( mar 2014 thru sep 2015 looks quite rough)

for the more esoterically minded there is also some very nasty stuff in the pipe around 2024-2026( if you are chinese and like their brand of astrology ...this is their "fire horse" year...which generally ends in warfare of some kind)

..perhaps leading to the demise of communism if they are lucky,...if they are unlucky it'll come about in much the same way as one russian general was initmating....he was referring to the fact he envisages war with china at some stage, as to what will trigger it......well russia have lots of oil and gas, and china needs it.

if russia commits too much resource to the middle east and comes off worst, then they will get savaged by china and the fourth reich.

Yeah, I think that a Russo-Chinese will start then. I am pretty sure it will be on June 27th 2024 at 11:37am GMT.

Maybe 11:37 BST not GMT. Can't be certain about these things.

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Bugger! I've just seen you beat me to it! :lol:

It's OK Mr Pin, if you are patient, you'll find those of us who dawdle and those of us who rush will all still get to 2016 at pretty much exactly the same time!

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You still think it matters which party gets in? :huh:

UKIP might make a difference. My guess is a Labour win would bring on the dog-food fighting apocalypse a year or two before the Tories, but otherwise not much difference unless they dump Camoron.

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They're career politicians so they'll do whatever the polls tell them will increase their chances of re-election.

Either way, I expect house prices will have fallen 30% to 40% by the end of the decade, perhaps more if they go for the second option.

House prices, as valued in FIAT, will never be alowed to fall. Haven't the monetary manipulations by our dear leaders over the last 6 years taught you that yet? On the other hand, if you have some non FIAT asset to exchange for a house (usinf FIAT as a temporary intermediate means of exchange), only then may you see a "fall" in the exchange value of a house relative to that asset. If you are hoping for that to be the case with your FIAT, though, you can forget it.

Aint gonna happen.

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House prices, as valued in FIAT, will never be alowed to fall. Haven't the monetary manipulations by our dear leaders over the last 6 years taught you that yet? On the other hand, if you have some non FIAT asset to exchange for a house (usinf FIAT as a temporary intermediate means of exchange), only then may you see a "fall" in the exchange value of a house relative to that asset. If you are hoping for that to be the case with your FIAT, though, you can forget it.

Aint gonna happen.

Prices have fallen nominally since peak, sometimes substantially depending on the index chosen.

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All you are going to see from 2013-2015 is a rise in house prices as all the folks who can't be bothered to save a deposit or have poorly paid jobs can suddenly buy again using the HTB scheme.

So the floodgates are once again open again, we'll that is if any body passes the stringent credit tests, I hear zero hour contracts are a strict no no!

After 2015 and presuming that HTB doesn't continue then I expect another decrease that will more than wipe out any 2013-15 gans.

The current government have obviously made it there business to keep house prices high until then.

After 2015 I fully expect IR to creep up as well so this will add further pressure to HPs.

I'm 34 and from the midlands and most of my friends not earn about £22,000 a year and they are already struggling so god knows what will happen when IRs go up, I guess we will see a massive crease in repos again.

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House prices, as valued in FIAT, will never be alowed to fall. Haven't the monetary manipulations by our dear leaders over the last 6 years taught you that yet? On the other hand, if you have some non FIAT asset to exchange for a house (usinf FIAT as a temporary intermediate means of exchange), only then may you see a "fall" in the exchange value of a house relative to that asset. If you are hoping for that to be the case with your FIAT, though, you can forget it.

Aint gonna happen.

They have actually risen in some places (London) fallen slightly in most places and only fallen significantly (about 20% or so) in a very few places. In those places where they have risen, this is because there is big foreign money buying them. In those places where they have fallen significantly, this is because half the workforce worked for the local councils and are now on short hour contracts or are out of work. In other words, for ordinary people, house prices are further than ever out of reach due to them not falling, or falling but with salaries/employment prospects falling even faster.

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Prices have fallen nominally since peak, sometimes substantially depending on the index chosen.

They have actually risen in some places (London) fallen slightly in most places and only fallen significantly (about 20% or so) in a very few places. In those places where they have risen, this is because there is big foreign money buying them. In those places where they have fallen significantly, this is because half the workforce worked for the local councils and are now on short hour contracts or are out of work. In other words, for ordinary people, house prices are further than ever out of reach due to them not falling, or falling but with salaries/employment prospects falling even faster.

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They have actually risen in some places (London) fallen slightly in most places and only fallen significantly (about 20% or so) in a very few places. In those places where they have risen, this is because there is big foreign money buying them. In those places where they have fallen significantly, this is because half the workforce worked for the local councils and are now on short hour contracts or are out of work. In other words, for ordinary people, house prices are further than ever out of reach due to them not falling, or falling but with salaries/employment prospects falling even faster.

Not sure I'd wear that assessment. NI is 50% down nominal, and nationwide prices are between 10% and 17% down if memory serves. The Haliwide regional series shows plenty of places with substantial nominal falls. Real wages are in decline, I'll grant you that which as you say makes the support base even lower from a price/wages viewpoint.

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