easy2012 Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 ]http://www.gscape.com/images/econ/charts/IRAug2013a.gif Thanks Free Trader. The thing that I don't understand is why they bothered spending close to £1m pa of tax payers money hiring Mark to do this. An econ graduate on £20k can do the above just as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 That chart is an epitaph to BoE projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 He will have a long wait.Unemployment in the UK is around 20%+ if you take in all on income support,self employed cough cough tax credits,,disability around the margins,people with partner working,savings etc. Exactly. Just like in the US - they are basically saying that we will have low interest rates and QE for ever. Or until the whole thing blows up. Which it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 He seems to think the housing market is relatively 'soft' in terms of valuation (because prices are lower than they were). A reminder of Canada: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Okay, just realised we have the power to totally snuff this stupid policy (whatever it is) out here and now. Theshold at which bank must reconsider = 750,000 new jobs. I vote 999 and myself start up 1000 companies, each employing 750 people on zero hour contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Cheers FT, the first 'knockout' is hilarious, given the BoE's past record on forecasting. Surprisingly vague overall, imo. He's vaguer than a vague spokesman at a vague conference in Las Vagueas. Appalling presentation. Paul Tucker must be p1ssing himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Why is is when he talks of escape velocity I imagine Jules Verne's Moon Gun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 He's vaguer than a vague spokesman at a vague conference in Las Vagueas. Appalling presentation. Paul Tucker must be p1ssing himself. UK 10 year back above 2.5%, indicative of the wisdom of telling the markets that you'll only print more if CPI is going to be below 2.5% in 18 months time when it's stuck at 3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 He's vaguer than a vague spokesman at a vague conference in Las Vagueas. Appalling presentation. Paul Tucker must be p1ssing himself. You pay a lot for the sort of vagueness here though. It's the main skill required in the job! What we have here is a masterclass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 (edited) He's vaguer than a vague spokesman at a vague conference in Las Vagueas. Appalling presentation. Paul Tucker must be p1ssing himself. He's following one of the best ever though. Whatever his faults, Mervyn King had an amazing ability to speak on the hoof with great clarity of thought. If you read transcripts of King's testimony to the HoC Treasury Committee, the guy is speaking in paragraphs, almost as though they were pre-constructed. A tough act to follow in that respect. Tucker was another 'er, um, er' merchant. Edit: spelling Edited August 7, 2013 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 (edited) Have to agree. And it is the MPC's view of inflation 18-24 months ahead which never seems to bear any relation to reality. And the BBC headlining this as Rates Held Until Unemployment Falls - it's nothing of the sort. Some journo just pointed out the de factor change in the inflation target, Carney responding there has been no change. C'mon, FFS it's not as if the target meant anything. And it's not as if any of these "targets" and "thresholds" mean anything. People are gonna make up their own minds about what this means. Some households will worry about savings rates and cut their spending and make businesses go under. Some will have their incomes eroded by RPI and be forced to cut spending on anything but the basics. Some will speculate on assest. Maybe even the odd person will create a job on the back of this. He's called it forward guidance, but I challenge anyone to say for sure what any sentence of his missive means. Market watchers certainly don't seem to know. Edited August 7, 2013 by Sledgehead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 That was Kate Barker, an ex-MPC member. Based on the above, of course STR is property speculation. Also, based on the above, as Mr Chairman is making reasoning of the future based on incomplete evidence - he too is speculating. Big difference between 1c and 2a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 As usual, BBC News are spinning like a top...... No interest rate increase until at least 2016 etc, etc, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 The cynic in me can't help thinking that for the first time ever the government will be trying to fiddle the unemployment number to the upside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTMark Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 The cynic in me can't help thinking that for the first time ever the government will be trying to fiddle the unemployment number to the upside. By, later on, reclassifying zero hours contracts perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Using unemployment as a target for low rates is self defeating. The low rates mean that more people that rely on saving income have to work longer than they would have if their income hadn't been stolen. They then take jobs from the young and so increase unemployment. It breaks the jobs ladder. Older people stay on the jobs ladder longer, blocking career progression for others so the bottom rung doesn't empty for young people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Sterling now up to 1.54. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Sterling now up to 1.54. 1.543... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Q: Would you regard a 15% rise in house prices as a success? Carney: We don't target asset prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveinHope Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 (edited) Using unemployment as a target for low rates is self defeating. The low rates mean that more people that rely on saving income have to work longer than they would have if their income hadn't been stolen. They then take jobs from the young and so increase unemployment. It breaks the jobs ladder. Older people stay on the jobs ladder longer, blocking career progression for others so the bottom rung doesn't empty for young people. And they also buy less stuff or cut back on people they employ as their psyche makes them hoard cash more, so less real money flows into the economy Edited August 7, 2013 by LiveinHope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Q: Would you regard a 15% rise in house prices as a success? Carney: We don't target asset prices. They didn't target asset prices pre-crisis either. Look what happened there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 He's following one of the best ever though. Whatever his faults, Mervyn King had an amazing ability to speak on the hoof with great clarity of thought. If you read transcripts of King's testimony to the HoC Treasury Committee, the guy is speaking in paragraphs, almost as though they were pre-constructed. A tough act to follow in that respect. Tucker was another 'er, um, er' merchant. Edit: spelling Agree. Merv was awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 (edited) 1.543... Into proven resistance territory at the moment. Wouldn't surprise if it was soon back down to where it was early this morning. Farcical Edited August 7, 2013 by aSecureTenant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easy2012 Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 1.543... Higher inflation is sterling positive, who would have thought.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 A central banker just trying to keep the wheels on the wagon...as per usual. The politicians have done nothing of real importance wrt the econamy over the past 5 years. This is all very well until the next global incident. When the Dollar falls/collapses and China launches a new gold backed system, then we will see what he is really made of! Until then the name of the game is to not shoot himself in the foot. Savers into Gold and Silver now. Roll on October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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