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Trampa501

We Need House Prices To Increase Still Further, And Faster

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It's gone too far already. This generation and the next are already screwed. The only hope is that we have such a catastrophic bubble and consequent crash, that it never happens again.

Luckily Dave&George are doing their best to see that this happens...

Watch the pound.

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It's gone too far already. This generation and the next are already screwed. The only hope is that we have such a catastrophic bubble and consequent crash, that it never happens again.

Luckily Dave&George are doing their best to see that this happens...

Watch the pound.

They bailed them out in 2007. Nothing has changed since then, we just have fewer larger banks. They will bail them out again. If people cannot imagine a situation where private banking is abolished and the state takes over the supply of money then the status quo will be upheld at all cost. The LibDems, Labour, Consrvative and UKIP will work as hard as they can to maintain the current banking situation.

That is why property has been such a good investment, because through mortgages it is linked so strongly to the banking industry and therefore earns the protection of the political establishment and the media.

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Agreed but you will have to get organised and do something about it, even if its only tweeting every MP you know.

Moaning about HPI on here won't change a thing.. sadly.

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They bailed them out in 2007. Nothing has changed since then, we just have fewer larger banks. They will bail them out again. If people cannot imagine a situation where private banking is abolished and the state takes over the supply of money then the status quo will be upheld at all cost. The LibDems, Labour, Consrvative and UKIP will work as hard as they can to maintain the current banking situation.

That is why property has been such a good investment, because through mortgages it is linked so strongly to the banking industry and therefore earns the protection of the political establishment and the media.

True....they need assets and land to ever increase in value both to protect the banks and for them to continue lending into the system that would fail if the money stopped flowing.

But the better question would be.....What alternative is there that would work to replace what so far has only worked with lots of tweaks and adjustments to make it fit, how long can this realisticly continue, how long before they exhaust all possible get out clauses? ;)

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Agreed but you will have to get organised and do something about it, even if its only tweeting every MP you know.

Moaning about HPI on here won't change a thing.. sadly.

I disagree, things can be different for the individual. Posters 'moaning on here' provides a place where lurkers can see the other side of the "debt is wealth" narrative and thus make an informed choice. It may not have a massive or even detectable effect on economic life in aggregate, but our lives are lived at a finer level of detail.

This site has provided many, possibly most, of the clues that I needed to get a broad handle on why despite earning twice median local earnings and having access to a substantial potential deposit, I'd be pushed to buy more than a 1 bed hovel, (at level of leverage I thought was prudent).

I guess now I feel that we have to begin from where we are and right now in the matter of housing and leverage, can't have your cake and eat it. Unless you have a pile of cash (BB!) the price of keeping your leverage down, is that you won't be able to 'own' property, (i.e. control the asset as a mortgaged owner-occupier). But similarly, you'll find it very difficult to own property and keep your leverage down. Knowledge allows the individual to pick their poison and be at peace with the choices they have to make, given that we start from here.

Further, whilst I was pretty shocked and appalled at UK mortgage practices, once I learned a little more I came to feel that bad as it is, and it is bad, it is also a pretty stable pattern of behaviour by governments and banks. Some countries do worse or better than others at different times, some systems of governments likewise. For me, getting to grips with UK property and banking has allowed me to see England more clearly, warts and all. It's harder to question a hegemonic narrative if there are no other dissidents, or moaners, if you prefer, ;) .

Edited by ChairmanOfTheBored

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So big it never happens again. :lol::lol::lol:

Comedy gold, if this bubble bursts we can expect another one in probably 20 years. At best we might avoid it for 100 years, until some young spiv discovers the easy profit in ever increasing house prices again and everyone flocks to this new magic pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

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This site has provided many, possibly most, of the clues that I needed to get a broad handle on why despite earning twice median local earnings and having access to a substantial potential deposit, I'd be pushed to buy more than a 1 bed hovel, (at level of leverage I thought was prudent).

I guess now I feel that we have to begin from where we are and right now in the matter of housing and leverage, can't have your cake and eat it. Unless you have a pile of cash (BB!) the price of keeping your leverage down, is that you won't be able to 'own' property, (i.e. control the asset as a mortgaged owner-occupier). But similarly, you'll find it very difficult to own property and keep your leverage down. Knowledge allows the individual to pick their poison and be at peace with the choices they have to make, given that we start from here.

Further, whilst I was pretty shocked and appalled at UK mortgage practices, once I learned a little more I came to feel that bad as it is, and it is bad, it is also a pretty stable pattern of behaviour by governments and banks. Some countries do worse or better than others at different times, some systems of governments likewise. For me, getting to grips with UK property and banking has allowed me to see England more clearly, warts and all. It's harder to question a hegemonic narrative if there are no other dissidents, or moaners, if you prefer, ;) .

I think here is that in the wild, the reckless don't last very long and neither would be the ultra conservative. After a while, the population sways back to the mean. In the housing market + financial system, the reckless got rescued at the expense of the prudent and there is nothing you or me can do about it as long as we hold/spend/pay taxes in £.

If one needs a house, then buy one that suits one needs at sensible leverage within sensible distance. If one is to 'invest' - then I say don't - it is just too riskly.

It is not just England though, it is around the world like in Japan, and we will see if the Chinese, Canadian, the Aussie, Malaysia, Thailand will let their market correct.

The only 2 housing market that I know of that allowed the housing market to correct without blowing up the whole thing are the HK and the Singapores (post 97, house prices dropped 50% in both places). But then those governments are not responsible for rehousing people who are being turfed out of their homes - then can go for to live in the cage home if that is all that they can afford.

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Knowledge allows the individual to pick their poison and be at peace with the choices they have to make, given that we start from here.

I do favour this pragmatic approach, sad as it is, we are where we are and just have to deal with it. I often get caught up in rallying against how we shouldn't be where we are, but here we are nonetheless and no matter how much I complain about that I still find myself in the same spot.

It reminds me of that joke about an irish chap giving directions, 'I wouldn't start from here if I were you'.

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They bailed them out in 2007. Nothing has changed since then, we just have fewer larger banks. They will bail them out again. If people cannot imagine a situation where private banking is abolished and the state takes over the supply of money then the status quo will be upheld at all cost. The LibDems, Labour, Consrvative and UKIP will work as hard as they can to maintain the current banking situation.

That is why property has been such a good investment, because through mortgages it is linked so strongly to the banking industry and therefore earns the protection of the political establishment and the media.

Yes, yes. But it's not true to say that nothing has changed. Successive UK govts have run up a trillion pound of debt supporting UK property values in the last five years. Were that rate of sovereign debt accumulation to be maintained then by 2018 the national debt would be something like 150% of GDP. Servicing the interest alone would cost the country between £150 - £200bn p.a.

Unpossible.

UK-National-Debt-Graph.jpg

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The plan to raise house prices is certainly having some effect:

In the NW, asking prices for new homes are sky-rocketing. I have just done my monthly reconnaitre using property bee. Many 2nd hand houses down by 5-15%. New builds are surging by 5-10%.

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The plan to raise house prices is certainly having some effect:

In the NW, asking prices for new homes are sky-rocketing. I have just done my monthly reconnaitre using property bee. Many 2nd hand houses down by 5-15%. New builds are surging by 5-10%.

Soon to rise to the level of the government guarantee........good money chasing bad. ;)

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I disagree, things can be different for the individual. Posters 'moaning on here' provides a place where lurkers can see the other side of the "debt is wealth" narrative and thus make an informed choice. It may not have a massive or even detectable effect on economic life in aggregate, but our lives are lived at a finer level of detail.

This site has provided many, possibly most, of the clues ..//....

Further, whilst I was pretty shocked and appalled at UK mortgage practices, once I learned a little more I came to feel that bad as it is, and it is bad, it is also a pretty stable pattern of behaviour by governments and banks. Some countries do worse or better than others at different times, some systems of governments likewise. For me, getting to grips with UK property and banking has allowed me to see England more clearly, warts and all. It's harder to question a hegemonic narrative if there are no other dissidents, or moaners, if you prefer, ;) .

i.e.

The KEY form of control the Banksters use over millions of individuals is to hook them into the MASSIVE BIG LIE % FRAUD [Giant Ponzi Scam] - a.k.a the "housing market" .....

Using PREDATORY LIAR LOANS

to box them into legalised theft & robbery.....

Edited by eric pebble

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The plan to raise house prices is certainly having some effect:

In the NW, asking prices for new homes are sky-rocketing. I have just done my monthly reconnaitre using property bee. Many 2nd hand houses down by 5-15%. New builds are surging by 5-10%.

I've just done a reconnaitre on my bike and came across a small street of terraced houses where I used to live. Three have "To Let" signs outside all to one agent, and one is "Sold" and I bet if you looked into it, it would be to a BTL landlord. If an ex'LA home comes up, it ends up in the hands of a BTL.

These are ideal FTB properties for people on modest incomes and it seems to be that "To let" signs now dominate the landscape and therein lies the problem. Pretty soon the "ladder" - a term I hate, will be pretty much inaccessible (if it isn't already ) because most of the bottom rungs will be missing.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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It's gone too far already. This generation and the next are already screwed. The only hope is that we have such a catastrophic bubble and consequent crash, that it never happens again.

Luckily Dave&George are doing their best to see that this happens...

Watch the pound.

that's what's already happened :lol:

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Interesting to note my daughter's reaction: at 17 she was convinced that she'd work hard for a few years before she bought a house on Richmond Green :lol: She's 22 now and realises that the most she's going to get is a scuzzy shared shite hole for a horrendous amount of rent no matter how hard she works.

She wants to leave the country. I don't blame her.

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Interesting to note my daughter's reaction: at 17 she was convinced that she'd work hard for a few years before she bought a house on Richmond Green :lol: She's 22 now and realises that the most she's going to get is a scuzzy shared shite hole for a horrendous amount of rent no matter how hard she works.

She wants to leave the country. I don't blame her.

The question here is where did she get the idea from when she was 17? Is that what they teach in the school nowadays? Work hard and you will be able to buy a place, settled down and do well ?

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The question here is where did she get the idea from when she was 17? Is that what they teach in the school nowadays? Work hard and you will be able to buy a place, settled down and do well ?

...There are plenty of young people in their 20s living in London and other places who live at home, no way out....not every job is a good job that pays £25k starting with annual inflation busting increments plus bonuses....education in the right places with the right connections is only for the privileged few who can afford the fees to gain the influence. ;)

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The question here is where did she get the idea from when she was 17? Is that what they teach in the school nowadays? Work hard and you will be able to buy a place, settled down and do well ?

I think that most people when confronted with very complex situations uses the persistence forecasting model.

prst.gif

She saw that her parents had a nice big house and that her parents' friends had nice big houses too and she assumed that in due course she would get a nice big house too.

That's why people still pay a lot to "get on the ladder"; persistence forecasting. In the past there was a ladder and therefore in the future there will be a ladder. In the past people who got on "the ladder" benefited, so people in the future will benefit.

What is interesting is how people's minds identify the key elements of the forecasting heuristic and with the "ladder model" all that mattered was that you got a mortgage and became an owner occupier. The key elements that made the ladder work in the past - basically credit growth and wage inflation exceeding the relevant interest rate - were apparently either knowingly or unwittingly ignored.

My present call is that you can safely sit on the sidelines in UK housing until you see credit growth and wage inflation. London is the exception, but in London, everyone but a tiny minority are priced out already, so the decision is easy for them. What you can't buy, you won't buy.

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Actually, you could offer the idea that the Bank of Mum and Dad is prima facie evidence that the ladder has been in full reverse for a number of years. The only way to maintain the ladder illusion is to take ladder gains and feed them back into the system.

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The question here is where did she get the idea from when she was 17? Is that what they teach in the school nowadays? Work hard and you will be able to buy a place, settled down and do well ?

My daughter's clearly delighted at spending 70% of her income on rent. She's thrilled that she's paying some boomer's pension when she doesn't have a chance of her own. She's optimistic for the future. She wants to leave.

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I think that most people when confronted with very complex situations uses the persistence forecasting model.

prst.gif

not quite.

the "big lie" model is most certainly being used,and fortunately for some, the mantra is wearing a bit thin.

if only our politicians realised that the majority of the populace is not quite as susceptible to brainwashing as they think we are.

but the good news is...look at how the others who employed this "tactic" end up.

it never ends well for them.

I guess the big man upstairs has a bit of a problem with it.

that being the case,politicians be warned.you are toast.

once all this nonsense is over,we will still have government,but it will be considerably smaller and considerably more humble.

Edited by oracle

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I disagree that the majority will not do anything, things have nearly reached the end for our current system and it is going to be painful as the 1% do anything to cling on.

We have reached a debt limit, I think soon you will see an increasing aversion or inability by the majority to take on more debt. TPTB can try and force it on people with things like higher education fees, debt based benefits.

The problem is with no jobs and no money for the majority where do you go. Once the majority realise they have nothing to loose and reality starts to bite hard, you will see more and more civil disobedience.

Then there are global factors which will also have an impact.

In addition we cannot have a war any more as the consequences are extinction rather than just a large population decrease.

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