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Wurzel Of Highbridge

The Public Belief That The House Price Crash Is Over.

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What to make of this? I know Alexa is not the most reliable, but you can't deny the trend is down.

There has been much screaming and squirming from members here saying out they got it wrong.

25re902.png

I still believe that we are in the eye of the storm and that it will all kick off by 2015, possibly starting as early as October 2013 as it becomes impossible to deny the depression or 'the fall' any longer, Europe starts to crumble again and China decides to back it's currency with precious metals.

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What to make of this? I know Alexa is not the most reliable, but you can't deny the trend is down.

There has been much screaming and squirming from members here saying out they got it wrong.

25re902.png

I still believe that we are in the eye of the storm and that it will all kick off by 2015, possibly starting as early as October 2013 as it becomes impossible to deny the depression or 'the fall' any longer, Europe starts to crumble again and China decides to back it's currency with precious metals.

So people think that house prices have seen a "Return to Normal"? We all know what comes next acording to th lifecycle of a bubble chart.

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I'm trying to go the over way now, got a couple of credit cards gonna ride this bitch and see where it goes. I reckon TPTB think we haven't had enough trouble in this country so they'll be shipping the sheeet in to divide us but its not like I can move country, I'm stuck here in the sheet.

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There are plenty of idiots with their house on sale "until things return to normal" - but they will not sell, as there is no return to funny money.

Wanna bet?

Mark-Carney--009.jpg

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I have noticed a real slow down in comments off the main board. I made comments in the London and South East regional forums and they remained the last comments for a good few days and that never happened before.

My main problem with the public perception of house prices at the moment is the press banging on about the 'risk' of Help To Buy' etc creating a bubble in house prices! There seems to be no recognition that we have been in bubble territory for years, but I suppose most people don't consider it a bubble when it has been as long term as this.

Edited by worried1

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There's been such a huge regional difference that it's pointless to talk about a UK HPC, at least qualify points of view with reference to London/South East or the rest.

Indeed, and even on a regional/local basis there will have to be big differences.

In my area, flats that were £250k in 2007 are still £250k now, where as houses that were £500k in 2007 are now more like £800k. Totally supply driven, but I don't know if that will translate to anything like equal falls when the government support finally gives out.

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Still delusional in my neck of the woods.

A combination of:

1) supply and demand - very high second home ownership (mostly London money) and because of the latter

2) most houses have also been so extended and 'improved' with 5 ensuites* etc, that they are now priced out of most locals' reach - every £20k extension seems to add £100k in price

However, a plethora of houses have appeared on the market this spring and virtually nothing is selling when that just would not have been the case before.

Something has to give.

*I'd so smile if there was a bathroom tax

Edited by LiveinHope

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I am still of the belief that this crash has 10 to 20 years to play out and we will regularly see mini recoveries superimposed on the larger real terms falls, each time heralded by popular sentiment and stupid journalists

the tories are simply using it as election bait, I believe that those at the top are completely clear about the long term direction of house prices

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I still believe that we are in the eye of the storm and that it will all kick off by 2015...

This is my belief also.

The economy was not allowed to correct to pre bubble levels. Nothing was fixed. All that has happened is 'extend and pretend'. Many people and countries are still living beyond their means. Can that continue indefinitley?

I'm just not sure what will force a change and when.

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This is my belief also.

The economy was not allowed to correct to pre bubble levels. Nothing was fixed. All that has happened is 'extend and pretend'. Many people and countries are still living beyond their means. Can that continue indefinitley?

I'm just not sure what will force a change and when.

Aye it`s just a question of when is the can going to be too heavy to kick

I am beginning to think it will have to be an external event such as major defaults in the EU or something on that scale to change the status quo

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There's been such a huge regional difference that it's pointless to talk about a UK HPC, at least qualify points of view with reference to London/South East or the rest.

This ^ .

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I am still of the belief that this crash has 10 to 20 years to play out and we will regularly see mini recoveries superimposed on the larger real terms falls, each time heralded by popular sentiment and stupid journalists

the tories are simply using it as election bait, I believe that those at the top are completely clear about the long term direction of house prices

I see flat nominal prices for the next twenty years, so perhaps we're in agreement. But in any event a two decade time horizon is profoundly different to the mood I recall on this forum just a few years back. Then there was lots of eager anticipation that our dream houses would imminently be on the market at 40-50% discounts from the prevailing prices. Ho hum!

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What to make of this? I know Alexa is not the most reliable, but you can't deny the trend is down.

The trend with some types of visitors is up, it seems to me, and a bit disappointing when others then make posts holding them up as intelligentsia of the forum, and others let them off totally unchallenged.

At best, the HPC fantasy seems to me, at best, to be a mechanism for swapping places with the worst-off of the owner occupier sector. Hardly a mechanism for life satisfaction!

Then to visit property-forums, where many contributors clearly struggle intellectually, with so many topics and posts on how great their business is at the moment, thread after thread of bullish indicators (Savills +17% in next 5 years, NHF +42% by 2020), how their BTL mortgage/brokering business is actually booming having to take on new staff, and full of excitement about HTB and a new era of HPI that's coming.

Against that and everything else, best I can hope for until 2015, is rent prices falling.

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Put very simply, people are still moving if they have to. Buying a grossly over priced thing, and hoping like buggery the music does not stop. There is a wall of money waiting on a house price crash or adjustment. I (like many) have cash to buy outright, but will not do so when like now, the market represents such poor value. I do not wish to buy just because some knobber wants me to.

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I see flat nominal prices for the next twenty years, so perhaps we're in agreement. But in any event a two decade time horizon is profoundly different to the mood I recall on this forum just a few years back. Then there was lots of eager anticipation that our dream houses would imminently be on the market at 40-50% discounts from the prevailing prices. Ho hum!

agreed

history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme - there will be alternative investment opportunities which the sheeple (including the HPC sheeple) will moan about after they miss the boat over the next 20 years instead

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I do hope the can is nicely kicked down the road globally until 2015. Will let me save a years worth of salary by then (saving about 1/3rd pre-tax at the moment) and hopefully able to buy without a mortgage.....

Then again, now I have said that, expect the crash to start tomorrow. :unsure:

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This is my belief also.

The economy was not allowed to correct to pre bubble levels. Nothing was fixed. All that has happened is 'extend and pretend'. Many people and countries are still living beyond their means. Can that continue indefinitley?

I'm just not sure what will force a change and when.

a small matter of a civil war between the predominently protestant work-ethic based people, and the RC "socialist" elements in scotland (who really do need to go back and read their history books, because initially they were not roman catholic at all....they were actually some of the bitterest opponents of it back in the days of emperor hadrian etc)

they do not yet realise that they have been screwed over by decades of "play the victim" propaganda.

it was always vatican objective to subject the heretics across the sea by means of conversion of ireland...and it spread to bits of scotland.

...this is how the jacobite uprising started.

I would hope they would be intelligent enough to see the trap they have created for themselves.( and biologically I should support their cause but I don't....technically I am related to messrs George robertson,former secretary general of nato...and john reid, former fascist home secretary

...and I think their conduct has been nothing short of disgraceful...they should thank the lord that I'm not pulling the strings of power because I would have had the latter hung,drawn and quartered.

I am unbelieveably cross with the way they governed.)

Edited by oracle

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I have noticed a real slow down in comments off the main board. I made comments in the London and South East regional forums and they remained the last comments for a good few days and that never happened before.

My main problem with the public perception of house prices at the moment is the press banging on about the 'risk' of Help To Buy' etc creating a bubble in house prices! There seems to be no recognition that we have been in bubble territory for years, but I suppose most people don't consider it a bubble when it has been as long term as this.

I heard something the other week on R4 about fear of HTB creating a new housing bubble. While it is good that at least the bubble is acknowledged, I still get annoyed with the assumption that the previous bubble has burst/deflated/disappeared. HTB won't create a NEW housing bubble, it will just stoke up the current one. Grrr...

There seems to be a lot of positive sentiment around housing from the usual sectors. I was explaining to the wife that the Tories don't need a recovery in housing - they just need the voters to BELIEVE that there is a recovery. And it doesn't help that Britain seems to have become a sporting powerhouse for a year... and it's been sunny this summer. You can't fight the herd sentiment. So, another 2-3 years of renting looks likely.

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There's been such a huge regional difference that it's pointless to talk about a UK HPC, at least qualify points of view with reference to London/South East or the rest.

That gap is probably only going to get bigger.

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