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gruffydd

'expected' Crash Hasn't Happened Yet So

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But was does 'expected' mean? To be honest, I'm sure many of us haven't been 'expecting' a severe UK-wide downturn to kick in yet.

The 'It hasn't happened yet so there will not be a crash' attitude on here is strange. It's interesting how sentiment seems to swing back and forth so much on HPC.

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We are professional worriers analysing a long term subject by studying every short term statistic with a microscope. It's like driving too slowly over cobbles... you feel every bump, have a long, slow journey, and end up with terrible back ache. The trick is probably to put the foot down and get on with living while planning, and saving, for what we believe will eventually be more affordable circumstances.

Personally I think we're in for a very long journey. The house price snake-oil tanker doesn't need to turn very much at the moment despite the rocks ahead. There are plenty of VIs (including many millions of satisfied owners) perched on the prow, DiCaprio stylee, yelling "I'm king of the equity world!" and lobbing sticks of MEWed dynamite into the water to clear the path. They don't worry about the environmental impact on those not aboard the good ship HPBonanza, and can't hear common sense whispering in their ear because of all those exciting explosions.

The question is, will the dynamite run out before the rocks? And can I squeeze any more tortuous metaphors into this reply before it implodes under the weight of its own self-serving wittiness? Only time will tell.

Andrew McP

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The question is, will the dynamite run out before the rocks? And can I squeeze any more tortuous metaphors into this reply before it implodes under the weight of its own self-serving wittiness? Only time will tell.

:lol::lol:

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We are professional worriers analysing a long term subject by studying every short term statistic with a microscope. It's like driving too slowly over cobbles... you feel every bump, have a long, slow journey, and end up with terrible back ache. The trick is probably to put the foot down and get on with living while planning, and saving, for what we believe will eventually be more affordable circumstances.

Personally I think we're in for a very long journey. The house price snake-oil tanker doesn't need to turn very much at the moment despite the rocks ahead. There are plenty of VIs (including many millions of satisfied owners) perched on the prow, DiCaprio stylee, yelling "I'm king of the equity world!" and lobbing sticks of MEWed dynamite into the water to clear the path. They don't worry about the environmental impact on those not aboard the good ship HPBonanza, and can't hear common sense whispering in their ear because of all those exciting explosions.

The question is, will the dynamite run out before the rocks? And can I squeeze any more tortuous metaphors into this reply before it implodes under the weight of its own self-serving wittiness? Only time will tell.

Andrew McP

It used to be said "never laugh at you own jokes".

"Post modern irony" may suggest otherwise I suppose.

:) I laughed at it all.

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lots of despondancy in here of late regarding the crash not materialising........but in a low inflation environment it's going to be a long and drawn out thing.......Although low IRs make payments affordable in the short run the level of debt is not being eroded by inflation as much as in the 70s and 80s..........

so even if Irs stay low for the rest of the decade, a sharp rise even 7 to 10 years ahead could upset the apple cart....................

In a high inflation setting (especially the 70s) the boom/bust cycle is a lot shorter.........High IRs cripple borrowers and stall the market but incomes are rising quickly with inflation......so when the high irs and inflation subside the newly-inflated incomes cause the market to rise again.....Between 1968 and 1982 incomes and house prices rose 8 fold.!.............and there were 3 booms!

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Lots of talk here about the crash being long & drawn out, i'm not so sure.

Once HPI goes negative there will be lots more talk about the price falls, this could rapidly change sentiment in the market leading to sellers bidding down prices to avoid future losses.

If you look at the graphs of real house prices then the average peak to trough is about five years however the majority of the falls in prices are in the first two years.

My expectations are for rapid falls upto the end of 2007 with further gentle declines in 2008 & 2009 with recovery starting in 2010 onwards, possibly leading into the next boom.

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I agree - I expect that the period between late 2006 and the end of 2007 will see the most rapid falls as sentiment is badly shaken (oh no, forgot, we shouldn't worry about 'spin' and 'sentiment' ;) )

Gruff

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We are professional worriers analysing a long term subject by studying every short term statistic with a microscope. It's like driving too slowly over cobbles... you feel every bump, have a long, slow journey, and end up with terrible back ache. The trick is probably to put the foot down and get on with living while planning, and saving, for what we believe will eventually be more affordable circumstances.

Personally I think we're in for a very long journey. The house price snake-oil tanker doesn't need to turn very much at the moment despite the rocks ahead. There are plenty of VIs (including many millions of satisfied owners) perched on the prow, DiCaprio stylee, yelling "I'm king of the equity world!" and lobbing sticks of MEWed dynamite into the water to clear the path. They don't worry about the environmental impact on those not aboard the good ship HPBonanza, and can't hear common sense whispering in their ear because of all those exciting explosions.

The question is, will the dynamite run out before the rocks? And can I squeeze any more tortuous metaphors into this reply before it implodes under the weight of its own self-serving wittiness? Only time will tell.

Andrew McP

brilliant :)

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Absolutely no sign of a house price crash. Everyone go out and borrow 200k and buy, buy, buy!

Have a look here.

Evidence!

There is a house on there called Brambletyne - or something like that. It was on the market for ages and ages at £565k. It sold for £469k. Is that a price fall? Compared to what it went the previous time it sold it would be a price rise.

There are also 4 flats in St. Sebastian's Court.

First one went for 265k in July 2004.

Most recent one went for 215k in July 2005.

They have been finished since about Spring 2004.

4 of them are still not sold but appear to be occupied - a while ago a forest of To Let boards went up - presume the developer gave up trying to sell and has rented them.

From where I am sitting prices being achieved are anything between 10% and 20% below what they were 2 years ago.

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It's what I am seeing out here too - anecdotal time - guy at a company I consult for told me he'd just sold his terrace - on market 130k - sold last week for 109k - on market for 8 months - sold through some housing association part-equity scheme. No 'ordinary' buyer even bothered putting an offer in, though it was a great property.

G

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As others have commented, when the last bear in any bubble market becomes a bull then the crash has already begun.

The very fact that some HPC bears are now getting agitated and are worrying that the crash will not occur is actually, IMPO, a sign that we are closer to the crash than many people yet realise.

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To predict a timeframe for the housing market crash/correction is folly.

Markets do what markets do, and for as long as they do it, however irrational you think it is.

The investment road is littered with the pathetic corpses of those who thought they could accurately time a market.

I know the housing market is fundamentally overvalued and so do you. But many in the market disagree with us. But don't let that get you down. After all, that is what makes "a market". If we were all of the same opinion on where prices were headed, the market could not exist.

Consider this: The fact that we are seeing stagnation in house prices at the moment, shows us that the bulls and bears are almost in equilibrium, despite all the positive media spin. Flat prices do not remain for ever, they never do, in any market.

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Absolutely no sign of a house price crash. Everyone go out and borrow 200k and buy, buy, buy!

Have a look here.

Evidence!

There is a house on there called Brambletyne - or something like that. It was on the market for ages and ages at £565k. It sold for £469k. Is that a price fall? Compared to what it went the previous time it sold it would be a price rise.

There are also 4 flats in St. Sebastian's Court.

First one went for 265k in July 2004.

Most recent one went for 215k in July 2005.

They have been finished since about Spring 2004.

4 of them are still not sold but appear to be occupied - a while ago a forest of To Let boards went up - presume the developer gave up trying to sell and has rented them.

From where I am sitting prices being achieved are anything between 10% and 20% below what they were 2 years ago.

Don't know how much clearer it can be. Another block near me called Oakwood Court - in Dukes Ride, Crowthorne has only 6 sold (might be wrong there - looked earlier - can't be bothered to look again - it might be 4). They have sold at diminishing prices and are in the paper today for even less - plus all the extras under the sun. I think there are about 18 to 24 flats there - been finished at least 9 months now - big sign outside - 90% sold. The developer must have bought them off himself!

The crash is in full swing. It's just hard to spot because:

a) it's gradual

B) still lots of overpriced rubbish on the market

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I remember reading recently that a recent ARLA survey of people who have BTL over the last few ares are "in it for the long term"

see "A quarter of all Buy to Let landlords entered the market in the last twelve months. However, the average length of time in the rental market for most investors is over five years. Only 1.5% of all these would consider selling if house prices should fall."

I wonder that if house prices start to tank how many of them will bail out at the earliest opportunity? This in turn could speed the rate of falls, especially in the low end and "luxury 2 bed" (my ar*e) appartments!

In a way this remindes me of the end of the dot com era when the late adopters (e.g. several of my work colleagues who had never owned a share before in their lives) saw money for nothing in dot com and rushed for the likes of lastminute[dot]com shares at what could be argued as the end of the boom........ the fact that a quarter of BTL landlords entered the market in the last twelve months sounds vaguely similar!

My colleagues still have their lastminute.com shares though, so maybe not the best analogy, but think the cash value was low enough, and wasn't viewed as their pension!

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I remember reading recently that a recent ARLA survey of people who have BTL over the last few ares are "in it for the long term"

..and the definition of a long-term investment is?

...a short-term one gone wrong.

My colleagues still have their lastminute.com shares though, so maybe not the best analogy, but think the cash value was low enough, and wasn't viewed as their pension!

I wonder how many of those overnight share experts who invested in Lastminute.com at the IPO, decided to average down after the shares tanked?

They climbed seventeen-fold from their nadir in 2001. Timing is everything.

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Well i've not heard many of them talking about investing in shares recently!

I think there will be always be property investors who can and will make money from the market - all credit to them..... but there will be some who get burned by any downturn, and to be honest i doubt i'll have any sympathy...

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"We are professional worriers analysing a long term subject by studying every short term statistic with a microscope. It's like driving too slowly over cobbles... you feel every bump, have a long, slow journey, and end up with terrible back ache. The trick is probably to put the foot down and get on with living while planning, and saving, for what we believe will eventually be more affordable circumstances".

Terrific quote!

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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