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Morning from Exeter,

I have looked at all the posts over the past few weeks and noticed many of us starting to belive that things are bullish and housing will not go down. Well frankly i look around and its going down. Why do you know, you all ask?. Well this is why!!

My business turnover has dropped by over 50% over this time last year. Its not because my products are too expensive its just the phone does not ring. Its almost like everyone is still on holiday.

My wife is an accountant in Exeter and looks after many retailers on the high street and Gandy street for those who know Exeter(Apom, Starcrossed etc) and three clients who in the previous year would generate profits of around £10000 per month have now made large losses in the past quarter and are amazingly enough in a repayment situation from the inland revenue.

Mrs CASHKING and i went shopping in exeter on saterday and it was packed with people all seemingly busy and shopping. Well i have found out this week from my wife that all these people did not part with there money in any of the retailers that she looks after(she looked at the till receipts for the day and they still made a loss)

My graphic designer/printer has said to me last Friday that he has never know it so quite and having seen a number of resessions says this is how they start. Business slacks off, phone stays quite, and while there is still money in the bank, losses can be disguised for months while you live off the fat. He is going to try and STR but i think its too late, as many new developments in Tiverton are offering cashback on top of all the usual in the houses of £1200 per month for a full year, or reserve now and we will give you £2500 to spend on holiday/car/tv and your house(can these tiny favells be called that) will be competed by February for you to move in(picture of incredibly good looking couple with smiles from ear to ear hosing each other in the garden) Come on, how long can this go on for.

If my phone rings its generally from magazines trying to get me to advertise with them and getting ever more desperate, i can hear it in there voices and the deals that they try and offer me. and none of these poor people ever stay more that six months with the same company. I am sure many of these magazines will go bust.

An estate agent from Bradleys phoned me up yesterday asking me if i would like to advertise in there magazine. After we had got through all the cheap chat i told him why i had sold my house and his predictions for housing over the next year(Its not often you have a frank talk with an estate agent) He said i had done the right thing to sell in the spring and that things were bad now with sales way done and very little good news for next year. He is 59 years old and worked in property for most of it, and his remarks on this is going to be much bigger than the last one and they have little option of doing anything differant from there competitors lest they start a rout. I said to him thats what going to happen anyway. I know he said its just the British way of doing housing.

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i still dont think it will tip housing.

when i watched homes under the hammer this morning there wasnt one single family buyer. EVERY ONE was an investor developer. joe public cant buy, but developers will. and they are doing this now - at a peak.

they were 'snapping' up terraces for 120k, putting in the classics and back on market for 150k and it sold.

so with this in mind, i feel the market no longer needs ftbs. developers and banks are happy to take the lead.

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Cashking

Your anecdotal evidence is also supported by my Mum. She's a dentist - please no jokes! But she also said in the practice where she works it's alarmingly quiet. The phone doesn't ring anymore. Just like you said, she said it's like everyone's gone on holiday and no one is spending any money.

And she said before Xmas usually practices are busy because people don't want to have any problems during the holiday season so they come in and sort it out. But she said it's just deathly quiet.

She said she's seen this happen before, and it always precedes a big downturn and she said it's always when the phone stops ringing that it means things are serious.

This is in outer part of SW London

The man that owns the practice is 30 and has debts of somewhere in the region of 600 to 800k. He bought it for 430k and kitted out with computers, new equipment etc which doesn 't come cheap in that industry - costing him a few 100k more.

He also has a flat in birmingham - new build in city center which has been on the market for over year and he can't sell and has a mortgage on that of 150k. Poor man - we think he'll be one of the casualties....

Oh and finally, the cleaning service my Mum uses, she said for the last month she can just get them to come round straight away, no need to book. She knows the cleaners well and they said they were very worried and not working one a day week now because the work had dried up, apparently because people just aren't spending money anymore

Edited by kerplonk

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Nice anecdote CashKing.

From what I read on here it seems that the South West is well ahead in terms of the market going south.

I live just south of Bristol and the market has been dead/falling for quite a while here.... plenty to go yet though.

I also noticed that there were masses of people shopping when I went shopping on Monday.. very busy. Weirdly though there were very small queues at the checkouts. Seems that the masses of people weren't buying too much - mainly looking.

Edited by non-FTBer

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Thanks for the replys,

Another two things that have happened in the last month. I bank in Tiverton and went into town to sort out a chaps payment for Germany with the personnel banker. Well me and him have got on well over the last five years and so i always get to have a good conversation without any of the claptrap. He said that he should be a debt counseller given the number of people who are failing on morgage and other card payments. He said the size of these debts are large and all these people want to do is remorgage there house, counsolidate all outstanding monies owed and then live frugally(in a sort of penitence of past excesses). Poor guy he says its exhausting taking all these peoples worries and problems home every night.

Secondly, i had one of the top south-west corporate banking managers over for lunch two Sundays ago. Think large bank N.......t. Said to me now understands why i sold and that he would be better off with money in his own bank than in his home. Pretty picture it is not, and the level of money put aside for bad debts by banks for this forthcoming year are not nearly enough. My friend said that they intentionlly underestimated for fear that it scare off any more borrowers. Watch this space as its debt, like Charlie says will be the killer.

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Cashking

Your anecdotal evidence is also supported by my Mum. She's a dentist - please no jokes! But she also said in the practice where she works it's alarmingly quiet. The phone doesn't ring anymore. Just like you said, she said it's like everyone's gone on holiday and no one is spending any money.

And she said before Xmas usually practices are busy because people don't want to have any problems during the holiday season so they come in and sort it out. But she said it's just deathly quiet.

She said she's seen this happen before, and it always precedes a big downturn and she said it's always when the phone stops ringing that it means things are serious.

This is in outer part of SW London

The man that owns the practice is 30 and has debts of somewhere in the region of 600 to 800k. He bought it for 430k and kitted out with computers, new equipment etc which doesn 't come cheap in that industry - costing him a few 100k more.

He also has a flat in birmingham - new build in city center which has been on the market for over year and he can't sell and has a mortgage on that of 150k. Poor man - we think he'll be one of the casualties....

Oh and finally, the cleaning service my Mum uses, she said for the last month she can just get them to come round straight away, no need to book. She knows the cleaners well and they said they were very worried and not working one a day week now because the work had dried up, apparently because people just aren't spending money anymore

Wow!!! Bad times ahead - I have no doubt at all -- TIMBER!!!!!!!!

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i still dont think it will tip housing.

when i watched homes under the hammer this morning there wasnt one single family buyer. EVERY ONE was an investor developer. joe public cant buy, but developers will. and they are doing this now - at a peak.

they were 'snapping' up terraces for 120k, putting in the classics and back on market for 150k and it sold.

so with this in mind, i feel the market no longer needs ftbs. developers and banks are happy to take the lead.

Surely these programmes are done so far in advance to be of no value whatesoever.

I feel there are lot more posters on here that are starting to change their minds about the inevitable crash. I will not waiver. The situation is bleak and continues to go downhill. Comparing with the 90's crash everything looks deja vu. Lots of stories about the economy getting better, housing picking up etc etc blah blah blah.

Anecdotal evidence is far more important and tells the story well in advance of reports, surveys and indexes.

My friend wife is a childminder, cannot get any more business because there isn't any. The council are pushing people to become childminders whilst in all the groups childminders are leaving the business because there is a lack of business. So why are the council still saying theres a lack of childminders?

My friend has just lost his job in engineering and now works nights in Tesco.

Bovis homes have been building houses near me at £195,000 for a three bed townhouse, they sell reasonable the next jump to a detached house at £354,000. They have not sold one in the last 4 months.

This is the REAL britain. Similar to Little Britain. You go to the mortgage company tell them your salary x it by 5 and 'Computer says no'.

The computer only says yes if you want to live in a sh*thole for £200,000 and get into massive debt.

Be patient.

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Thanks Non FTBer,

Yeah that right, i got all deppressed shopping on Saterday seeing all these people out and about. I could hardly move in the crush. Oh no i thought i have this wrong and here are the cash rich shoppers just looking for someone to give their money to. So i told Mrs CASHKING who was visiting some of her clients earlier this week to have a good look and see how there tills sang. Well it was not loudly that i can report and in fact some of the shops only just broke even. That for a perfect sunny crisp late autumn Saterday is bad news.

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My business turnover has dropped by over 50% over this time last year. Its not because my products are too expensive its just the phone does not ring. Its almost like everyone is still on holiday.

Cash King,

Would be interested to know what business you are in?

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i still dont think it will tip housing.

when i watched homes under the hammer this morning there wasnt one single family buyer. EVERY ONE was an investor developer. joe public cant buy, but developers will. and they are doing this now - at a peak.

they were 'snapping' up terraces for 120k, putting in the classics and back on market for 150k and it sold.

so with this in mind, i feel the market no longer needs ftbs. developers and banks are happy to take the lead.

So how does that one work then? You are describing a model in which nobody buys a house to live in, only people wanting to buy a house, muck around with it a bit, and put it back on the market for another investor to buy and repeat. Errrrr....... I think I see a problem with that model......

Cashking

Your anecdotal evidence is also supported by my Mum. She's a dentist - please no jokes! But she also said in the practice where she works it's alarmingly quiet. The phone doesn't ring anymore. Just like you said, she said it's like everyone's gone on holiday and no one is spending any money.

And she said before Xmas usually practices are busy because people don't want to have any problems during the holiday season so they come in and sort it out. But she said it's just deathly quiet.

She said she's seen this happen before, and it always precedes a big downturn and she said it's always when the phone stops ringing that it means things are serious.

This is in outer part of SW London

The man that owns the practice is 30 and has debts of somewhere in the region of 600 to 800k. He bought it for 430k and kitted out with computers, new equipment etc which doesn 't come cheap in that industry - costing him a few 100k more.

He also has a flat in birmingham - new build in city center which has been on the market for over year and he can't sell and has a mortgage on that of 150k. Poor man - we think he'll be one of the casualties....

Oh and finally, the cleaning service my Mum uses, she said for the last month she can just get them to come round straight away, no need to book. She knows the cleaners well and they said they were very worried and not working one a day week now because the work had dried up, apparently because people just aren't spending money anymore

It's over for the bulls. OVER!

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Surrey Cash Buyer,

I am not going to give the name or anything, but what my business does is import high quality solid Hardwood flooring from Germany. Its sold to anyone in the Uk, but mainly wealthy home owners, self builders and small developers.

Right, traditionally what has happened in the past is in the spring self builders start to develepe plots of land and by autumn are now ready for hardwood flooring, owners want to eat their Turkey for Christmas in their new house so lots of pressure on builders to complete and hence good easy pickings for me. So far this Autumn it just has not happened. Never mind the CASHKINGS are off to the Society Islands for Christmas.

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Surry Cash Buyer,

So, my business is very closely linked to the housing market, and when these apparant to most people's eyes wealthy home builders and renovaters start to say no to a five grand oak floor and go back to carpets, on sometimes the excuse that they will do it next year, all is not right.

I thought carpets were out for good and solid hardwood flooring was in(not cheap laminate or enginered products), but i may have been wrong and in a recession people go back to carpets.

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I also noticed that there were masses of people shopping when I went shopping on Monday.. very busy. Weirdly though there were very small queues at the checkouts. Seems that the masses of people weren't buying too much - mainly looking.

I noticed this too - except for the discount stores, like the new T J Hughes. Queues there were enormous and all the stuff was dirt cheap. People starting to budget perhaps?

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Same story in London: Hammersmith, at least.

I take a yoga class on Monday evenings, and usualy afterwards I stop into a small shop on King Street, to buy some food, to make up for the dinner I have missed. I have become friendly with the proprietor, a hardworking man from Lebanon.

This week, as I was buying my groceries he asked me, "Why are things so quiet?" He said, his usual customers are buying alot less in recent months, and his sales are down 25% on last year. I said it might be the competition- there's a new Tesco shop down the road. He said, he checked with his customers, and they are all having the same experience. Garages, news agents, etc. they have all gone quiet.

I explained that it might be property prices. When prices were shooting up, people were happy to spend more, and increase their mortgages. But now prices are stagnant, and people are worried about falls, they dont want to spend so freely anymore. He agreed that made sense, and asked how long it would go on. I said maybe another 2-3 years. He didnt want to hear that. He isnt enjoying the present situation. but he did said, "Fortunately, I am not borrowing from the bank.... yet."

Went on my usual trek accros from SW to SE England - and stopped off at various places - food shops - fairly busy, but not as much as 1 yr ago; furniture shops - all closing down as far as I can see! - Gift & other non-necessities: - DEAD. Spoke to various people in the business - all VERY worried. And finally - EA's!! TOTALLY dead in MANY places as far as I could see - the road between Midhurst and E Sussex - loads and loads of EA's all along there - nothing seems to be going on as far as I can see, and hasn't for months, LOADS of "luxury" flats [t^rdholes] have been sitting empty for at least 10 months..... Friends in all kinds of trades - quaking in their boots right now. Mate in building industry says people are getting REALLY worried - but determined not to let the outside world/jo public know this......

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I'm an accountant, and one of my clients supplies retailers with goods. He was planning to sell out to the management, but the market has turned so much he's cancelled it, as he feels the company needs him to steer it through the recession - he's very paternalistic (a lovely man!). He's of an age where he has seen it before...

Oh and Oxford Street shops are still dead - there are plenty of people looking at the ligts but very few shops have anyone buying anything much. Some do - Gap, TopShop, but Dickens & Jones might as well have closed down already. It's even reduced its Christmas cards! In November!

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Hello Cashking from Exeter!

I have been baffled for some time that anybody has anything to spend - at least in the numbers the High Street seems to suck in. So much so that I have considered that I am rubbish with money and everybody else is some kind of genius.

This thread seems to be indicating that all is not as it seems...pertinent timing because I have been drifting into the 'economy may not be too bad' camp in the past few weeks.

As it is, with the recent stats and spin I may have to buy a house soon because I am running out of time with regard to Mrs Starcrossed.

Anyway, whatever else happens, I will place a spread bet on house prices dropping for the reasons brought out in this thread (and to show that my heart lies with HPC)

Edited by Starcrossed

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Morning from Exeter,

I have looked at all the posts over the past few weeks and noticed many of us starting to belive that things are bullish and housing will not go down. Well frankly i look around and its going down. Why do you know, you all ask?. Well this is why!!

My business turnover has dropped by over 50%

Hello Cash

I run my own business and I'm witnessing similar to you, but the problem is I have seen this all before too many times to mention and certainly several times in the last decade, so the big question is whether this is just the tooing and froing of the business tide that I have always swashed about in, or something more sinister.

Personally I think this is just a patch as to me it feels no different to the many patches of the past.

In particular I recall vividly in 1998 a guy buying 2 cottages to do - up. I knew him because his business was just along from mine. At that time I advised him against the development because the high street and suppliers / printers etc were all gloomy and quiet.

Next thing I know we all bounced back and he made an almost instentaneous 100% profit doing - up the 2 cottages.

I find that us traders tend to be a gloomy lot.

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Afternoon Starcrossed,

Yes don't get beliving that the economy is okay after the summer and back on track. I know it is not, Mrs CASHKING knows it, her clients know it, my bank knows it and every other person who i can have a decent chat with knows it.

As i have said in my above thread, many companies can survive off thier fat for a while, until it becomes a joke to be in business and they cut and run. Just stay out of house hunting or even looking as you get tempted even though you know so much more than other people.

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Thanks Whoops,

Enjoy your posts.

As i have said my business covers the whole country, and you think that most of my business would be in Devon or the affulent south. Right last year but not so this year. Its weird but the islands of Scotland and a small area in Aberdeenshire (Crathes and Banchory) are my main markets at the momant while Devon gone quite. Overall its terrible but it must be the oil wealth in Aberdeenshire thats gone too their heads. I mean do you know what it costs to transport pallets of flooring from Devon to Crathes.

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Too everyone,

I wonder if anyone else has noticed this.

My son who is 4 and half would rather be an STR than a homeowner and if you asked him he would say this.

I can rent a bigger house and have more space then one i owned.

I get to play in lots of cardboard boxes

Mummy and Daddy get to take me to New Zealand so i can fly a kite(don't ask me why)

Daddy dosen't shout and say funny words when something goes wrong in the house, he makes a call

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I'm an accountant, and one of my clients supplies retailers with goods. He was planning to sell out to the management, but the market has turned so much he's cancelled it, as he feels the company needs him to steer it through the recession - he's very paternalistic (a lovely man!). He's of an age where he has seen it before...

Oh and Oxford Street shops are still dead - there are plenty of people looking at the ligts but very few shops have anyone buying anything much. Some do - Gap, TopShop, but Dickens & Jones might as well have closed down already. It's even reduced its Christmas cards! In November!

I think the UK economy has been scraping along the bottom for some time now - and will contine to do so for a long time - and house prices will slip down in slow motion over the next 5 years.

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[quote name='CASHKING' date='Nov 17 2005, 03:11 PM' post='23597

Mummy and Daddy get to take me to New Zealand so i can fly a kite(don't ask me why)

Have you been there then?

That's the country to be in.

Except, bit of economic muddle at the moment but, on balance, a great place.

We're hoping to go there within next 2/3 years, Mrs. M. having been born there.

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Some of you might recall myself posting on Monday last that my local Ironmonger had just told me his sales are 40% down over the last quarter.

I know a man who runs a successful van hire business in Swansea. He has made loads of money over the years. His wife is a snob who, I have noticed over the past 20 years, sets up an upmarket womens' clothes' shop each time the economy is about to boom. She picks a shop in one of the better suburbs, rents it out and sells very expensive frocks.

However, I have noticed that, in the past, she always closes down the business just before the UK goes into recession. Her husband - she does not seem that bright - is a superb businessman and worth millions by all accounts.

This Summer her posh frock shop had a big closing down sale and the shop is now empty.

Btw, excellent anecdotal evidence from others

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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