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Is It Game Over?

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So, regardless if if its realistic or not, sentiment is improving. The doom is not as bad as it was. With government meddling (QE, negative rates, help to buy, etc) they have prevented a full blown crash. Now it looks as though they are inflating houses prices to win an election although they will not ever admit that.

10 years I have been at HPC. Summer 2003 I became effectively a STR'er, although my rent is a shared ownership. I have crap neighbours, the house is a tiny poky box but I have not moved and put my life on hold for all this time because to put all my savings into a house in a market that was 30% - 40% overvalued seemed insane. But prices carried on going and went up beyond expectations due to Brown's meddling then crashed a fair bit but are above 2003 levels which has made the whole exercise pointless. So at various stages I considered buying, but I have always believed that eventually the market must return to normal. The end never comes, it's one new scheme after another, I never would have dreamt the extent that governments would go to to prevent house prices falling.

So in this 10 years my HPC ethic has really been on of the main causes of the failure of my relationships. Why?

1. GF wanted to live together, then arguements would ensue over not buying one. So bad that we would split before even trying renting instead.

2. In this 10 years through not buying and being ultra annoyed at everything going on I have cut expenditure to the minimum as a response to negative rates, invested as well as I could, worked a lot of OT, and saved up a big HPC fund ready to use when the time actually comes, this has caused me more problems.

It has made me rather worried that a woman could take half of it, again this is an obstacle to happiness. If they want kids, even worse, you know how much they cost and women at my age who don't have kids are running out of time with the biological clock. Another cause of relationship failure.

3 The lack of a HPC has made me very angry and maybe a bit bitter and twisted since everything I have done or not done for the last 10 years is because of it. I am not the fun person I used to be because everything about the economy and high HPI holds me back through the anger I have stored up. So in dating if the topic of money comes up its like opening a can of worms, most women do not understand the system at all, to them I have now turned into a man obsessed with money and doom and gloom rather than a catch.

If I had just bought a house in 2003, got married, had kids I would have been in a different place today.

What to do?

1. Give up and buy in the UK. They might go up 10% after buying before something happens to trigger the full blown crash but hey at least I have moved on and not waited anymore.

2. Wait some more, save some more, but how long for? it would be another 3 years before a crash if any comes. Then I will be 43.

3. Buy abroad in a place that is having a proper correction. I can only think of Spain or Ireland, but these places are not good for my sort of work.

4. Find a woman financially on par with me? Not likely since to have a house without a large amount of debt would mean they would have had to buy pre 1997. Not many women around who did that still single who are not way over 40.

I am sort of at the end of my tether, hence this frustrated post. Maybe I am being way too negative, but I woke this morning thinking what the hell am I doing with my life. Only a HPC'er would understand my situation. Any comments bad or good anything at all would be gratefully received.

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I fear you're right - but hope you're wrong...

You correctly point out that, for example, Spain and Ireland have had their price corrections. You also state that they are not good places for your kind of work. Would it be possible then to move to parts of the UK where housing has fallen? The obvious example is northern Ireland, although you may not wish to live there, but there must be other parts of northern England or Scotland that would suit you? Another solution is to buy a cheap place abroad, but do some kind of commuting. You may even get cheap digs with someone in exchange for giving him/her a month's free accommodation at your place?

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I am sort of at the end of my tether, hence this frustrated post. Maybe I am being way too negative, but I woke this morning thinking what the hell am I doing with my life. Only a HPC'er would understand my situation. Any comments bad or good anything at all would be gratefully received.

I sympathise with you, although I think life is difficult for everyone, whether they have just bought a house, or are currently renting.

Most people I know (under the age of 40-45), who either own or rent, are struggling for space in their homes and also find it difficult to save.

The government are propping up both rents and asset prices, which makes everything expensive.

* EDIT * I think there's hope yet getting beyond commutable distance to London (house prices really are falling). It seems like a way out for me, without having to emigrate.

Edited by GradualCringe

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So, regardless if if its realistic or not, sentiment is improving. The doom is not as bad as it was. With government meddling (QE, negative rates, help to buy, etc) they have prevented a full blown crash. Now it looks as though they are inflating houses prices to win an election although they will not ever admit that.

10 years I have been at HPC. Summer 2003 I became effectively a STR'er, although my rent is a shared ownership. I have crap neighbours, the house is a tiny poky box but I have not moved and put my life on hold for all this time because to put all my savings into a house in a market that was 30% - 40% overvalued seemed insane. But prices carried on going and went up beyond expectations due to Brown's meddling then crashed a fair bit but are above 2003 levels which has made the whole exercise pointless. So at various stages I considered buying, but I have always believed that eventually the market must return to normal. The end never comes, it's one new scheme after another, I never would have dreamt the extent that governments would go to to prevent house prices falling.

So in this 10 years my HPC ethic has really been on of the main causes of the failure of my relationships. Why?

1. GF wanted to live together, then arguements would ensue over not buying one. So bad that we would split before even trying renting instead.

2. In this 10 years through not buying and being ultra annoyed at everything going on I have cut expenditure to the minimum as a response to negative rates, invested as well as I could, worked a lot of OT, and saved up a big HPC fund ready to use when the time actually comes, this has caused me more problems.

It has made me rather worried that a woman could take half of it, again this is an obstacle to happiness. If they want kids, even worse, you know how much they cost and women at my age who don't have kids are running out of time with the biological clock. Another cause of relationship failure.

3 The lack of a HPC has made me very angry and maybe a bit bitter and twisted since everything I have done or not done for the last 10 years is because of it. I am not the fun person I used to be because everything about the economy and high HPI holds me back through the anger I have stored up. So in dating if the topic of money comes up its like opening a can of worms, most women do not understand the system at all, to them I have now turned into a man obsessed with money and doom and gloom rather than a catch.

If I had just bought a house in 2003, got married, had kids I would have been in a different place today.

What to do?

1. Give up and buy in the UK. They might go up 10% after buying before something happens to trigger the full blown crash but hey at least I have moved on and not waited anymore.

2. Wait some more, save some more, but how long for? it would be another 3 years before a crash if any comes. Then I will be 43.

3. Buy abroad in a place that is having a proper correction. I can only think of Spain or Ireland, but these places are not good for my sort of work.

4. Find a woman financially on par with me? Not likely since to have a house without a large amount of debt would mean they would have had to buy pre 1997. Not many women around who did that still single who are not way over 40.

I am sort of at the end of my tether, hence this frustrated post. Maybe I am being way too negative, but I woke this morning thinking what the hell am I doing with my life. Only a HPC'er would understand my situation. Any comments bad or good anything at all would be gratefully received.

Yes you are. You think women have the power and you think you need to own a house to have any relevance. If a woman brings up money, tell her you don`t discuss money with women, if she persists just laugh at her.(I know that is not really possible once you are in a relationship, maybe just let them walk away and not care too much?) If you are saving and investing you are probably much more secure than the sheeple who bought a house with massive debt, MEW`ed, and are now waiting for interest rates to hand down their sentence. Stop thinking about houses, be glad you stayed out of the Frankenstein money experiment, and just do something uplifting (I`m going to get stuck into a good guitar practice session in a minute, it feels great!) And 2003 was FAR too early to STR BTW :P

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All they have done is ensure a larger crash and crisis. Its all about passing the buck and avoid the 5h1t hitting the fan whilst you are in power.

The meddling is taking place to protect the banks any large correction will show the banks are insolvent. All the economic eggs are in property. Naturally everything will be done to ensure the "wealth" is preserved no matter what the cost.

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I'm reminded of that old Keynes quote "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." Except that in this case the market is rigged by the establishment. It maybe 20-30 years before the inevitable correction comes.

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@op

Emigrate and get married and make you and a girl happy?

Otherwise the north has undergone its hpc and you only have a so much time. Also note that you still live better than the pre 60 peasants and many around the world.so cheerup. If you still can't cheerup, a holiday abroad the developing countries should help.

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I am sort of at the end of my tether, hence this frustrated post. Maybe I am being way too negative, but I woke this morning thinking what the hell am I doing with my life. Only a HPC'er would understand my situation. Any comments bad or good anything at all would be gratefully received.

You are 5 years older than me, I am probably in a very similar situation as you financially and have felt exactly as you do now....

I stopped that about 2 years ago by embracing everything else that is good, and appreciating the luck and freedom the situation offers. We're not stuck in relationships that have evolved into something crappy. We don't have a mountain of debt, or if not a mountain of debt, an illiquid anchor weighing us down. I can do what I like, when I like. I'm now thinking that I would be an absolute horror to live with because of how used I have become to having my time my own.

Of course, if you really do crave a relationship and it's the main thing that occupy's your mind, that is something I can only sympathise with but I assure you it's possible to get out of that funk. Go out and find some new hobbies and interests - find something new every day, learn about as many things as possible, go places and do a lot of reading. It's a monk like and rather spiritual existence in some ways, but if it works for you, you can be very happy! Stuff the government and the banks manipulation - i laugh at it now.

Good luck Sir. Hope you can start to see the great benefits of the situation, rather than the negatives.

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There is value in the market out there if you are prepared to look.

I know it is frustrating but if you bought something like this you could make it nice.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27619548.html

It may only be a flat and it needs some work but it would be a foot on the ladder at least.

:)

We are indeed all f*cked!

Simply brilliant. OP I implore you to look at that link and instead of tearing your hair out, let out a belly laugh and imagine just what sort of pretentious fool has been nagged into paying that by his/her trophy partner.

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Simply brilliant. OP I implore you to look at that link and instead of tearing your hair out, let out a belly laugh and imagine just what sort of pretentious fool has been nagged into paying that by his/her trophy partner.

Might be worth keeping an eye on this one, see if it sells? Bet the "owner" ain`t belly laughing now, but no doubt some idiot will be along to buy it?

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If I had just bought a house in 2003, got married, had kids I would have been in a different place today.

Yep, youd be in a squalid bedsit while you pay the mortgage on the house your ex still still lives in. OK in fairness there only a 40% chance that your marriage would fail one day so its not an absolute certainty.

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Might be worth keeping an eye on this one, see if it sells? Bet the "owner" ain`t belly laughing now, but no doubt some idiot will be along to buy it?

Friends of ours bought a 4 bedroom detached house with a huge garden, about 5 minutes walk away,for a mere £850k so it is ludicrously overpriced as far as I can see.

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I think most people share the OP's opinion. For me the frustration is that the UK rewards recklessness, ignorance and laziness. The whole issue with house prices defies common sense. There will be a massive crash, but it looks as if it could be 20-30 years away. When it happens it will be huge, but i don't have the patience.

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You need to try and ignore the shallow needs of women and of relationships. You need to gird your loins and turn yourself into a ball of pure hpc energy where the divide between bitterness at everything and where you start cannot be separated.

Are you taking about w******g ?

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Friends of ours bought a 4 bedroom detached house with a huge garden, about 5 minutes walk away,for a mere £850k so it is ludicrously overpriced as far as I can see.

Ouch, either the person in the flat has been suckered big time, or they are very greedy and deluded?

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I think most people share the OP's opinion. For me the frustration is that the UK rewards recklessness, ignorance and laziness. The whole issue with house prices defies common sense. There will be a massive crash, but it looks as if it could be 20-30 years away. When it happens it will be huge, but i don't have the patience.

Read that line already today on here. Does anyone, even the most bullish, believe that the UK housing market is going to limp on for another 20-30 years without a crash :lol: It has already crashed in volumes, sentiment and desire to buy. Low rates are all that is keeping it together now, a market where most people can`t sell is not a market, it is a prison.

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Yep, youd be in a squalid bedsit while you pay the mortgage on the house your ex still still lives in. OK in fairness there only a 40% chance that your marriage would fail one day so its not an absolute certainty.

Exactly, how many let a woman railroad them into borrowing huge sums for a house, only to regret it later?

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Is it game over?

I am not sure yet, I think we have seen the financial elastic stretched to breaking point with the snap only being avoided due to the Bank of England and the Fed let out an extra length to slacken things off a bit. This has stopped a few of the top 0.1% going bust, but hasn't helped anyone else.

This situation will carry on until wages rise across the board, as otherwise budgets will remain stretched against the debt that exists.

Unlike the OP, I did buy early on despite my instincts and the recklessness has paid off. In one sense it was easier for me to take the risk, both my self and my wife are in good jobs - but clearly this isn't the case for most, and until their wages go up the economy is going to limp from crisis to crisis Japan style.

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Is it game over? I should say so! There is a massive house price bubble that will ultimately burst. The longer it takes, the greater the fall will be.

I expect prices to fall 30% to 40%, in nominal terms, before the end of this decade.

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I separated from my ex in 2007, I could have kept the house and bought out her share as it was in my sole name ( although we effectively bought it together) but instead I took out my share of the equity and I certainly don't regret that decision as it's fallen in value by about £35,000 since then. Yes, the falls have been arrested for now but as soon as the US starts raising interest rates then we'll follow and the crash serious will start. What's being done now is being done with one thing in mind only, the 2015 General Election and after that the real pain will begin for those with mortgages they can only just afford with ZIRP.

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Read that line already today on here. Does anyone, even the most bullish, believe that the UK housing market is going to limp on for another 20-30 years without a crash :lol: It has already crashed in volumes, sentiment and desire to buy. Low rates are all that is keeping it together now, a market where most people can`t sell is not a market, it is a prison.

All common sense and logic points to a crash a lot sooner- but by the same thinking, something more substantial should have happened since 2007 by now!

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Is it game over? I should say so! There is a massive house price bubble that will ultimately burst. The longer it takes, the greater the fall will be.

I expect prices to fall 30% to 40%, in nominal terms, before the end of this decade.

Anecdotally, people i know who work in the "risk" side of the mortgage industry said that they (as in the company as a whole), are factor in 30% price drops into the models.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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