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Bland Unsight

Land Registry June 2013

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First one of these i've ever read and the facts don't seem to echo what is portrayed in the media ;) In general house prices stable or falling and this is before inflation is taken into account. Sales of £1,000,000 + properties up 50 % and London up in general which skews the rest of the data set i would have thought. If this is all 0.5% i.r's can achieve along with all the bloody daft schemes then it truly is on a knife edge.

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Can anyone explain how Greater London as a whole shows a 3.1% monthly increase, yet every individual London Borough's increase is less than this?

I was under the impression that Land Registry was like-for-like, so presumably a disproportionate number of sales of expensive properties wouldn't explain it.

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Can anyone explain how Greater London as a whole shows a 3.1% monthly increase, yet every individual London Borough's increase is less than this?

I was under the impression that Land Registry was like-for-like, so presumably a disproportionate number of sales of expensive properties wouldn't explain it.

As a very rusty mathematician, I would say that it is impossible unless one of several things have happened:- They revised figures for GL and not for individual boroughs, or vice versa, or they made a miscalculation, or they have used some sort of jiggery pokery.

I would like to learn of another explanation, though. :)

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Can anyone explain how Greater London as a whole shows a 3.1% monthly increase, yet every individual London Borough's increase is less than this?

I was under the impression that Land Registry was like-for-like, so presumably a disproportionate number of sales of expensive properties wouldn't explain it.

There's insufficient sales volume at the county/borough/metro level to get a meaningful assessment of price movements based on a single month's transactions, so these are computed using a rolling four-month average of the monthly/year-on-year price changes.

At the regional level (Greater London, Wales, West Midlands etc.) the volume is high enough to compute monthly/year-on-year changes based on a single month rather than a rolling average.

As a consequence it's not unusual for the parts to be out of kilter with the whole.

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First one of these i've ever read and the facts don't seem to echo what is portrayed in the media ;) In general house prices stable or falling and this is before inflation is taken into account. Sales of £1,000,000 + properties up 50 % and London up in general which skews the rest of the data set i would have thought. If this is all 0.5% i.r's can achieve along with all the bloody daft schemes then it truly is on a knife edge.

Moneyweeks explanation of the ''undercooking''.......

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2270763/How-Land-Registry-undercooks-house-prices-90k.html

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Good grief, that article is shockingly ill-informed. The guy obviously hasn't even bothered to read the Land Registry methodology documentation.

The idea that the exclusion of new-build properties from the LR calcs results in a 90K understatement of the average house price is ludicrous.

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Good grief, that article is shockingly ill-informed. The guy obviously hasn't even bothered to read the Land Registry methodology documentation.

The idea that the exclusion of new-build properties from the LR calcs results in a 90K understatement of the average house price is ludicrous.

Indeed the maths don't stack up, because the proportion of new sold to second hand is tiny.

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Liverpool -7.4% y-o-y plus a few surrounding areas moving lower too is pleasant reading for me. Might even move there someday if it keeps up at this rate.

Blackpool looks good, imo. About £76k average price. A bit of sea air and, I would expect, nearly deserted in winter. The latter appeals to me. :)

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Good grief, that article is shockingly ill-informed. The guy obviously hasn't even bothered to read the Land Registry methodology documentation.

The idea that the exclusion of new-build properties from the LR calcs results in a 90K understatement of the average house price is ludicrous.

However, there is a big and worrying discrepancy betweent the monthly figures and the quarterly report which shows average house prices at about £90k more than the monthly figures do. What causes that, I wonder, and which is the correct one? :blink:

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However, there is a big and worrying discrepancy betweent the monthly figures and the quarterly report which shows average house prices at about £90k more than the monthly figures do. What causes that, I wonder, and which is the correct one? :blink:

The monthly LR figure isn't an arithmetic mean of property sales. The 'average' house price was calculated as a geometric mean in April 2000 and repeat sales regression is used to create an index that modifies that number.

The number in the quarterly reports is the arithmetic mean. For example, the arithmetic mean for sales registered with LR so far for June 2013 is £248,657.

The journo is effectively making the same mistake as those who compare the Rightmove average asking price to the Halifax/Nationwide average house price and conclude that sellers are utterly delusional. The numbers aren't directly comparable.

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The monthly LR figure isn't an arithmetic mean of property sales. The 'average' house price was calculated as a geometric mean in April 2000 and repeat sales regression is used to create an index that modifies that number.

The number in the quarterly reports is the arithmetic mean. For example, the arithmetic mean for sales registered with LR so far for June 2013 is £248,657.

The journo is effectively making the same mistake as those who compare the Rightmove average asking price to the Halifax/Nationwide average house price and conclude that sellers are utterly delusional. The numbers aren't directly comparable.

Thanks for that, Freetrader. I'm surprised that LR would use a geometric mean for house prices. I'm also surprised that the difference between the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean is so large.

Mean

Edited by Giordano Bruno

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Thanks for that, Freetrader. I'm surprised that LR would use a geometric mean for house prices. I'm also surprised that the difference between the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean is so large.

Keep in mind that the indexed April 2000 geometric mean may bear little relation to today's geometric mean due to a change in the sales mix.

Taking the latest released LR dataset (63,000 transactions) the arithmetic mean is 239K and the geometric mean is 186K – a difference of only 53K.

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Keep in mind that the indexed April 2000 geometric mean may bear little relation to today's geometric mean due to a change in the sales mix.

Taking the latest released LR dataset (63,000 transactions) the arithmetic mean is 239K and the geometric mean is 186K – a difference of only 53K.

Mmm. Thanks. I'm still getting my head around this. I had thought that the present 'average' price (arithmetic mean) was about £160k. It seems it's not that simple. :)

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In general house prices stable or falling and this is before inflation is taken into account. Sales of £1,000,000 + properties up 50 % and London up in general which skews the rest of the data set i would have thought. If this is all 0.5% i.r's can achieve along with all the bloody daft schemes then it truly is on a knife edge.

^ this

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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