Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
TheCountOfNowhere

Is It All Too Good To Be True ?

Recommended Posts

House price wil be going up...if you believe the media.

We'll all be getting help to afford a house...if you believe the government.

Economy on the up...if you believe the ONS.

Europe fixed,,,,if you believe the stock market.

Everyone skint...if you talk to anyone.

Inflation crippling people...if you ask anyone.

Pay rise...you're having a laugh.

I just dont get it. The facts say one thing, the media/governemtn say the exact opposite.

What to believe?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices will go up until the next election in 2015, this is of course due to political manipulation. Then they will fall over the next four years until another election looms on the horizon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely far fewer mortgage repos.

But in my view so much bad debt still out there that growth will be killed. Maybe UK can ride the coattails of the US, but the humungous private debt will keep pulling us back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mortgage debts do seem to be being paid down, according to the BBA figures.

That's a good sign, isn't it?

Maybe some rebalancing has occurred and we're going to be in better shape?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazon have just reported a quarterly loss though. Its "unexpected" of course.

A loss is good. It show's they're optimistic and investing for the future. It's profits that should ring alarm bells. Did I also mention that black is white?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mortgage debts do seem to be being paid down, according to the BBA figures.

That's a good sign, isn't it?

Maybe some rebalancing has occurred and we're going to be in better shape?

To put it in context, appromimately £3Bn has been paid down this year from an outstanding book of over £700Bn. Barely scratched the surface, but repayments are on a gently rising trend which ought to keep net lending under pressure, HTB lunacy notwithstanding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House price wil be going up...if you believe the media.

We'll all be getting help to afford a house...if you believe the government.

Economy on the up...if you believe the ONS.

Europe fixed,,,,if you believe the stock market.

Everyone skint...if you talk to anyone.

Inflation crippling people...if you ask anyone.

Pay rise...you're having a laugh.

I just dont get it. The facts say one thing, the media/governemtn say the exact opposite.

What to believe?

The economy doesn't drive markets. Liquidity drives markets. Central bank liquidity provision is at an all-time high.. so markets are at an all-time high. There's no evidence to support the belief that QE has helped the economy materially, or will ever do so. But QE has plainly inflated financial assets like stocks and houses (by subsidising lending activity) and will continue to do so until it's withdrawn.

As for deleveraging? :lol::lol::lol:

private-debt.jpg

Total+debt.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given how much QE has been conjured into existence we should really be amazed at how little impact it has had- but I must admit reading Zero Hedge these days is like receiving dispatches from an alternate reality.

But if we look at the facts we still have a broken system with ZIRP and QE going strong with no real exit in sight- and even the barest hint of a slowdown causing a market meltdown- so it's hard to accept that things are somehow ok now.

Ask yourself a question- if Bernanke Dragi and Carney all popped up on TV tomorrow and said that all was well and that as a result they would be putting their tools back in the box and going fishing for six months- would the outcome be a calm recognition of that reality- or would it be a global panic on a truly gigantic scale?

I suspect the latter. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A loss is good. It show's they're optimistic and investing for the future. It's profits that should ring alarm bells. Did I also mention that black is white?

It is profitable to make a loss.....unless it is the house you are living in :lol: ......imo people generally would make an overall profit if houses were left to fall gracefully without interference.........high, rising house prices above inflation are not good for the general health of a growing economy. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Government talks up the economy, shops close

Move along, there is nothing to see here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Government talks up the economy, shops close

Move along, there is nothing to see here.

They can always print some more to give away......no loss there then. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10198408/If-you-think-Britain-is-on-its-way-back-to-prosperity-think-again-its-a-mirage.html

If you think Britain is on its way back to prosperity, think again, it's a mirage

.....

It is true that almost every single survey released during the past few months has shown a strengthening UK economy. Yet the big lesson from the bubble of the 2000s is that what statisticians deem to be growth can actually turn out to be an unsustainable mirage.

We appear to be falling at least partly into the same trap again, with the Coalition striving to engineer a debt-driven upturn based on the indefinite delaying of any sort of meaningful rebalancing. Rather than this being a genuine recovery, we are merely entering the latest stage in an ongoing bubble that began at the start of the previous decade and which keeps being reflated, with the painful but inevitable denouement still at least another crisis away.

....

As a share of national income, we invest less than 158 other countries around the world, a breathtakingly poor performance.

Even though the article's main theme is on target the article is a bit mixed. For instance near the end the article makes the flabbergasting suggestion "We need the City to start growing again."

No - the UK "City" always "grows" at the expense of most everything else in the UK. First of all IF the UK needs a "City" to start with (rather than just a banking sector at a scale fit for purpose) then it doesn't need the deadbeat one it currently has. The UK needs a banking sector that contributes to the UK in overall terms instead of the continuous cadging, fraud and general incompetence and then the repeated bail outs and rescues.

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

June data from the Land Registry was published today, and once again the headlines are that house prices are rising, both monthly and annually.

However the regional breakdown tells a slightly different story, with 6 out of 10 regions showing month-on-month prices drops. London apparently jumped 3.1% in a single month:

LandRegRegional0613.gif

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/49529/HPIReport20130723.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

June data from the Land Registry was published today, and once again the headlines are that house prices are rising, both monthly and annually.

However the regional breakdown tells a slightly different story, with 6 out of 10 regions showing month-on-month prices drops. London apparently jumped 3.1% in a single month:

LandRegRegional0613.gif

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/49529/HPIReport20130723.pdf

Indeed, the differential between north and south just keeps getting wider. Some of the county/borough stats are quite stark. In the NW, Liverpool is tanking, some 7.4% down y-o-y, and nearby Sefton is over 8% down y-o-y with smaller falls on the Wirral.

Only one london borough has experienced a y-o-y drop in prices, and that was by sub-1%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazon have just reported a quarterly loss though. Its "unexpected" of course.

amazon profits are incredible. the loss this quarter was $7million on the back of $15billion in sales.

this time last year it was $7million in profit from $13 billion in sales.

no wonder people are calling amazon a charity retailer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QE-inflated financial assets are held predominantly by those who live and work in London and the South East. These households are also the most indebted nationally and hence enjoy the greatest subsidy through ZIRP.

Win-win for the banksters and their sock-puppets in Westminster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The regional divide becomes apparent when you look at changes in median and mean prices against last year.

The numbers below are from the latest Land Reg dataset, and I must stress that these are not mix-adjusted prices. Therefore just because the median sale price is lower than last year in a particular postcode doesn't necessarily mean that house prices are falling there – it could simply be due to a change in the volume mix. However that in itself can be significant if the pattern isn't uniform across the country as a whole.

The data are sorted from high price to low (June 2013).

[Another caveat: the Jun 2013 numbers are based on incomplete sales volumes (because solicitors haven't yet registered all of the sales that occurred in June). Generally this won't affect the median price much, but the mean price may change a fair amount in due course, particularly in low volume areas such as London WC.]

Please don't republish this table elsewhere – it's only out of interest for you guys. The numbers are subject to revision and can easily be misinterpreted.

LandRegJune2013a.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funnily enough Seth Flanders summed it up in a few words on BBC News at Ten.

"Interest rates are very low and the sort of growth we are getting is the same as before the bust - shopping and imports, rather than the balanced growth the Tories said they wanted which was business investment and exports. And as wages are rising slower than inflation, it is by reducing net savings."

...or something like that

No ******ing way. Someone pointed out the emperor has no clothes?

Much prefer Seth to that PPE stooge they normally have for economics stories

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.