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clv101

Bad News For Uk Energy

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It's the biggest untold story out there:

Bad News For UK Energy

On the 27th October the DTI published the following information:

For the three months June 2005 to August 2005 compared to the same period a year earlier:

  • production of petroleum fell by 16.2%;
  • production of natural gas fell by 17.0%;
  • production of coal and other solid fuels fell by 24.9%;
  • electricity produced from nuclear sources rose by 11.8%;
  • electricity produced from wind and natural flow hydro fell by 4.4%.

We can probably discount the increase in nuclear as an anomaly since we know the fleet is being decommissioned over the next decade or so, I’ll put it down to there being one or more reactors down for maintenance in 2004 that are operating again now.

Gas is the most worrying:

gas_decline_update.gif

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Gas supply cuts for large industrial users are a virtual certainty this winter, unless the winter is very mild. Meaning they wil have to either:

Stop production, which will be bad for the economy

or

Run on diesel generators, which wil halt the fall in oil prices, which will be bad for the economy.

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Indeed and remember that gas power stations (some 38% of our electricity) are the main industrial customer and the first to cut their consumption, last winter gas power stations were responsible for 88% of interruption with other industry picking up the remaining 12% For this reason gas shortage = electricity shortage.

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Careful though. Whilst in the long-term the Uk is in a bit of a hole regarding energy self-sufficiency, that downward blip you've noted is strongly influenced by maintenance in the UK North Sea this summer.

An unusually large %ge of production was shut in by a number of Operators, much of which over-ran. So it's a bit of a red-herring, this time around.

You'll probably have to wait a while before production really starts to decline in the North Sea. Although a cold winter will still have major price spikes. Which is nice.

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The long-term implications of this appear to be quite disturbing. Britain can barely make its way with oil and gas on stream, but once they go badly into decline and we have to cough up a lot of money on importing them..... well, that looks like a balance of payments crisis. What will we export to compensate? Britain is no longer a culture that creates strong export industries the way Japan does. Unless I am to understand we are to become entirely reliant on the City services exports. Seems a tall order to me.

What I foresee is Britain being split apart. London does not need the rest of Britain in order to flourish. It is in effect a separate finance city like Hong Kong or the Isle of Mann. London will flourish provided there is some prosperity elsewhere in the world. But the rest of the country I suspect will see decline to a much straightened status. At least, that will happen unless a vigorous manufacturing export culture returns.

At any rate, increasing fuel imports will put pressure on the pound in the short to medium term and that will put pressure on the BOE to raise interest rates to prevent Sterling dropping from sight.

= HPC....

Edited by malco

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The big joke about avoiding nuclear power as much as we have is that France which has lot fewer other sources of its own energy has gone all out for it .........and when it comes to nuclear contamination France is so close it might as well be part of Britain.........................................

Edited by Michael

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Now you see why the Royal family started installing water powered electric turbines for their castles in spring 2005!

And why they have bought Prius cars!

Just before the shortages and MASSIVE rises in oil/gas/electric prices!

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its all heading towards one thing - conflict with IRAN.

they have the gas - we need it.

first we will impose sanctions to ensure they dont sell to China and sell to us at favorable terms.

the history of economic sanctions is one of ensurig the country imposing the sanctions continues to receive goods from the sanctioned country at terms favorable to it.

just look at British sanctions against the American colonies as an example.

after the sanctions there is every chance of war with IRAN.

if you think BLAIR'S posturing against IRAN has nothing to do with its vast energy resources you are either stupid or wilfully ignorant.

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The big joke about avoiding nuclear power as much as we have is that France which has lot fewer other sources of its own energy has gone all out for it .........and when it comes to nuclear contamination France is so close it might as well be part of Britain.........................................

True and we don't mind buying a bit of that nuclear produced electricity either.

Still, as long as others do our "dirty work", just as in other goods, we can bask in our hypocritical righteousness.

Before you flame me, I know the above doesn't apply to all.

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You'll probably have to wait a while before production really starts to decline in the North Sea. Although a cold winter will still have major price spikes. Which is nice.

Will we?

Total gas production in million cubic metres

2000 114,557 mcm

2001 112,567 mcm -1.7

2002 109,816 mcm -2.4%

2003 108,088 mcm -1.6%

2004 100,966 mcm -6.6%

UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming

Cumulative decline from 2000 to 2004 was 12% and 2005 is certainly going to be a good bit lower than 2004.

Edited by clv101

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I put the likelihood of this govt. ever putting something in to replace the energy deficit as somewhere close to zero.

Tax has just been slapped on the Biodiesel sector (OK on its own not going to set the world alight), howver every little bit helps. Oh, the biggest company in this sector I believe (Biofuels) have just today had their shares suspended.

http://money.guardian.co.uk/businessnews/s...1644381,00.html

Firms face closure after tax break is ended for fuel made from waste cooking oil

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its funny to think that our uk banks have lent the public a trillion pounds and got us into record debt.

and for what ?

to invest in uk renewable energy, making us the world leader ?

to become the leading electronics manufacturers ?

international banking ?

no.

we were lent a trillion pounds so we could simply buy houses off each other we could have afforded anyway, without the need for giga loans.

gentlemen. weve been had.

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right_freds_dead,

It is worse than that I'm afraid, that money has crowded out invesment in nearly every sector apart from the sectors directly involved with housing. The skills base is eroding, anything that can be shipped abroad is being shipped abroad and we will lack the reserves and skills to do much about the problems over the next few decades.

Yep the banking industry urged on by the govt. and the BOE have eaten the future of this country, like some bolemic experiment on a grand scale it is just a matter of time before the economy as a whole is crouched over the pan regurgitating all the bad loans and malinvesment of the last 5 years.

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its funny to think that our uk banks have lent the public a trillion pounds and got us into record debt.

and for what ?

to invest in uk renewable energy, making us the world leader ?

to become the leading electronics manufacturers ?

international banking ?

no.

we were lent a trillion pounds so we could simply buy houses off each other we could have afforded anyway, without the need for giga loans.

gentlemen. weve been had.

well said RFD. a gargantuan misdirection of resources (money and labour).

instead of money going into investment in useful capital like renewable energy its gone to the bankers of London and New York.

from whence it presumably eventually makes its way elsewhere around the

world to buy more real estate.,

the rich are feathering their nests and building their retirement retreats in the caribbean and mexico and elsewhere with the rewards from this misdirection of money and labour.

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yet if i ask posters to join a peaceful protest to number 10 they look at me like ive just come from outer space ??

as long as no one cares this will go on.

our taxes need to go on public services such as local authority housing and our investments need to be geared for world export. not internal feedy frenzys. otherwise the pound will die and die until its as worthless as the output of uk plc.

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yet if i ask posters to join a peaceful protest to number 10 they look at me like ive just come from outer space ??

as long as no one cares this will go on.

our taxes need to go on public services such as local authority housing and our investments need to be geared for world export. not internal feedy frenzys. otherwise the pound will die and die until its as worthless as the output of uk plc.

instead taxes go to create one hundred children's service advisers (whatever the hell they are ) at 70 grand a pop and the investment capital relentlessly gets ploughed into real estate and nothing else.

thats why it has to burst. reality in the form of an energy shock (avoidable if the proper planning was done years ago) will intrude and bring it all down.

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its all heading towards one thing - conflict with IRAN.

they have the gas - we need it.

first we will impose sanctions to ensure they dont sell to China and sell to us at favorable terms.

the history of economic sanctions is one of ensurig the country imposing the sanctions continues to receive goods from the sanctioned country at terms favorable to it.

just look at British sanctions against the American colonies as an example.

after the sanctions there is every chance of war with IRAN.

if you think BLAIR'S posturing against IRAN has nothing to do with its vast energy resources you are either stupid or wilfully ignorant.

Absolute nonsense - "Wilfully Ignorant" Ignorant Steve (the stupid one).

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instead taxes go to create one hundred children's service advisers (whatever the hell they are ) at 70 grand a pop and the investment capital relentlessly gets ploughed into real estate and nothing else.

thats why it has to burst. reality in the form of an energy shock (avoidable if the proper planning was done years ago) will intrude and bring it all down.

so can i count you in as number 23 ?

if we get 40 i think that would be enough to produce the first protest.

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We only have 10 years of North Sea gas and oil left at current consumption rates and then all our needs will need to be imported.

This will reduce tax receipts by £10bn per annum apparently - don't know what effect on trade deficit, but then no-one seems to worry about that anymore !

Don't worry about Gas though as a new pipeline comes on stream from Norway in 2007. British Gas also is importing masses of LPG from places such as Indonesia and Egypt - Muslim countries but lets not worry about that eh !

Also, then there is a new pipeline from Russia to Western Europe which we will use aswell at some point in the not to distant future. So the future looks gas powered, well thats what they are relying on.

At some point in the future, we'll be held to ransom.

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Absolute nonsense - "Wilfully Ignorant" Ignorant Steve (the stupid one).

Im reading a book called Energy Efficiency Policies by Victor Anderson.

it is a bit dated (1990) and aimed at the UK mostly.

he makes a telling point though "Other subsidies result from the

importance of energy supply for the economy and society, and the

dependence which this creates. The most important example of this is

that dependence on energy imports may lead governments into war,

threats of war, and preparations for possible war , in order to

maintain their supplies"

Too true.

His sentiments are echoed in the UK govts Energy White Paper of

February 2003 but in different language obviously

"As we shift to become a net importer , we may become potentially more

vulnerable to price fluctuations and interruptions to supply caused by

regulatory failures , political instability or conflict in other parts

of the world.....Our growing interdependence also means that securing

reliable energy supplies will need to be an increasingly inportant

part of our European and Foreign policy"

RFD

would love to but im leaving the country for a few months in december.

when i get back ill be up for it.

do you mind if i chant anti-war slogans ?

imupnorth

do you have any idea of the percentage of gas we will be importing from the middle east (specifically Iran ) in the near future ?

i believe its significantly high,

Edited by kenclarkesshoes

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We only have 10 years of North Sea gas and oil left at current consumption rates and then all our needs will need to be imported.

This will reduce tax receipts by £10bn per annum apparently - don't know what effect on trade deficit, but then no-one seems to worry about that anymore !

Don't worry about Gas though as a new pipeline comes on stream from Norway in 2007. British Gas also is importing masses of LPG from places such as Indonesia and Egypt - Muslim countries but lets not worry about that eh !

Also, then there is a new pipeline from Russia to Western Europe which we will use aswell at some point in the not to distant future. So the future looks gas powered, well thats what they are relying on.

At some point in the future, we'll be held to ransom.

Ok, call me a conspiracy theorist.

Your concerns above, imo, suggest one reason for the impetus behind things such as ID cards, car tracking and road pricing.

In an energy insecure future the greater the means of controlling the movement of the population the easier it will be to attempt to prevent social disruption.

I mean, we can't possibly build any more of those nasty nuclear things can we?

So, like just about all else, importing is the way to go? Generalisation I know, but you get my drift.

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We only have 10 years of North Sea gas and oil left at current consumption rates and then all our needs will need to be imported.
That's kind of irrelevant though since we can’t maintain current rates of extraction – the problem, the shortfall is here and now not 10 years away.
Don't worry about Gas though as a new pipeline comes on stream from Norway in 2007. British Gas also is importing masses of LPG from places such as Indonesia and Egypt - Muslim countries but lets not worry about that eh !
Norway’s North Sea gas fields are also in decline like the UK fields, there is nothing but a very short lived supply there. The LNG imports won’t be ‘massive’ over the next few years at least since there isn’t the available LNG tanker capacity in the world to deliver massive volumes here. The global LNG market is also likely to be very competitive with high prices and unreliable supply.
Also, then there is a new pipeline from Russia to Western Europe which we will use aswell at some point in the not to distant future. So the future looks gas powered, well thats what they are relying on.
We’re at the very end (if you don’t count Ireland who import gas from the UK, boy have they got problems!) of the pipeline with plenty of customers before us. Russia is relishing the dependence of Western Europe on it’s gas supplies, that can’t be good in geopolitical terms.
At some point in the future, we'll be held to ransom.
No doubt in my mind. Edited by clv101

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With the pound dropping like a stone against the dollar(ie the present 'oil currency') - won't energy prices be whacked up even more this winter?

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OK, let's get straight to the point.

The supply of both oil and gas to the industrialised countries is increasingly a serious problem due to the underlying global resource base.

Over the short term we worry about production problems due to technical faults, prices and so on.

Over the medium term we contemplate all manner of radical schemes to bring gas from afar and convert all manner of substances into "drop in" substitutes for products presently produced from crude oil.

At best, these medium term solutions might buy us 3 decades of time. That is the highly optimistic scenario.

Realistically, it is likely that ongoing shortfalls in the supply of gas and oil will be with us from now on. Perhaps one country builds a new pipeline to fix a gas shortage but that only buys time and only for that country. Meanwhile another country somewhere else in the world runs into gas supply problems. Oil is much the same - we drill new wells only to see others dry up.

From a "big picture" perspective the shortage of oil and gas is (1) real and (2) now. The only sensible option is to simultaneously pursue energy conservation, efficiency and the development of all practial sources of energy.

We are not in a situation of being able to choose between wind or nuclear or coal. Realistically on a worldwide basis we need wind AND nuclear AND coal AND geothermal AND hydro etc. That is the only way we have any chance of overcoming the oil and gas problem and even then it's going to be an awfully bumpy road to the post oil and gas era.

Energy planning needs a fundamental shift away from NIMBY, BANANA, competition and everything else which dominates it today. Instead we need a fundamental test - "Will this project reduce dependance on oil and or gas?". That's it. A simple question. Does it move us forward or not. If it does then, within reasonable limits, we need to build it whether it's a geothermal power plant or a new rail line that is under consideration. We have no choice but to adapt to a post oil and gas world so it's time to get on with it rather than trying to delay the inevitable.

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OK, let's get straight to the point.

The supply of both oil and gas to the industrialised countries is increasingly a serious problem due to the underlying global resource base.

Over the short term we worry about production problems due to technical faults, prices and so on.

Over the medium term we contemplate all manner of radical schemes to bring gas from afar and convert all manner of substances into "drop in" substitutes for products presently produced from crude oil.

At best, these medium term solutions might buy us 3 decades of time. That is the highly optimistic scenario.

Realistically, it is likely that ongoing shortfalls in the supply of gas and oil will be with us from now on. Perhaps one country builds a new pipeline to fix a gas shortage but that only buys time and only for that country. Meanwhile another country somewhere else in the world runs into gas supply problems. Oil is much the same - we drill new wells only to see others dry up.

From a "big picture" perspective the shortage of oil and gas is (1) real and (2) now. The only sensible option is to simultaneously pursue energy conservation, efficiency and the development of all practial sources of energy.

We are not in a situation of being able to choose between wind or nuclear or coal. Realistically on a worldwide basis we need wind AND nuclear AND coal AND geothermal AND hydro etc. That is the only way we have any chance of overcoming the oil and gas problem and even then it's going to be an awfully bumpy road to the post oil and gas era.

Energy planning needs a fundamental shift away from NIMBY, BANANA, competition and everything else which dominates it today. Instead we need a fundamental test - "Will this project reduce dependance on oil and or gas?". That's it. A simple question. Does it move us forward or not. If it does then, within reasonable limits, we need to build it whether it's a geothermal power plant or a new rail line that is under consideration. We have no choice but to adapt to a post oil and gas world so it's time to get on with it rather than trying to delay the inevitable.

Yes ok, but next quarter's results are what concern me.

My friend? Oh (s)he's only thinking about the next GE.

Long term planning?, not really our cup of tea.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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