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The Knimbies who say No

B B A Stats June 2013

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BBA page with summary and link to spreadsheet:

http://www.bba.org.uk/statistics/article/june-2013-figures-for-the-high-street-banks/high-street-banking/

A fairly short summary this month:

BBA statistics director, David Dooks said:

“Second quarter GDP is expected to have strengthened and as economic conditions improve the banks are providing the finance to help growth. In June, £9 billion of new mortgages and a small rise in consumer credit were accompanied by a net increase in lending to businesses.

”However, household savings, though still growing at 5%, seem to be slowing.”

The red line is still below zero, although it moved closer to the axis this month:

stats230713.jpg

Mortgages

---------------

Interesting that the BBA gross lending is a touch over £9Bn when the CML have been pumping a figure of £15Bn, which points to you-know-who still churning out the loans. Still, although the June figure is well up on last year, it is hardly a huge shift from previous post-crisis years, and is lower than last month.

Gross lending, £Millions (nsa):

June 2013: £9,187

June 2012: £7,595

June 2011: £8,745

June 2010: £9,715

June 2009: £9,033

June 2001: £10,351

Net lending however turned positive for the first time in 2013 in June, +£258 million pounds for the month, continuing an upwards trend that started in March, but has taken until this month to go above zero.

2013 cumulative net lending is -£3.2Bn.

The numbers of approvals for the various groups (remortgage, purchase, MEW) are similar but lower than last month, and are not at levels which are unprecedented since the onset of the crisis.

Personal Loans &CC

-----------------------------

Both nudged up a touch this month, which means a new high for CC balances at £37,114 Bn. Loan balances upward move (albeit by £71M) have ended a downward run which started over 5 years ago! Balances are at £33,810, roughly half their bubble peak.

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Plenty more in the spreadsheet so have a look.

Last month's HPC thread here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=191452

Edited by cheeznbreed

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Telegraph article which focusses on people repaying debts, which is partially true. Repayment of capital has perked up in the first 6 months of 2013 compared to every year since 2008, and is on a gradually upward trend:

t1p2.jpg

This is the crux of the problem for Osborne et al, seems like the repayments base is very gradually moving up.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/10197099/What-bubble-Mortgage-lending-remains-subdued.html

Edited by cheeznbreed

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We have a scheme starting next January where banks can offload 20% of the lending risk onto taxpayers. If I were a banker now I'd be very careful who I lend money to until then.

If I were a buyer needing a high LTV mortgage I'd be waiting until next year and saving money for my 5% deposit.

If I had cash, wanted to buy a house and thought this new scheme was going to boost prices I'd buy now ahead of the people who need mortgages also being able to buy.

Conclusion

Mortgage approvals not really going anywhere yet, more people saving for deposits, some others buying with cash not with a mortgage.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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