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Skyscrapers And "boom And Bust"

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Not an article but a 24 page PDF. Perhaps a bit of bedtime reading for HPC posters!

http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_4.pdf

Lawrence (1999a) was apparently the first to make the claim that the construction

of the world’s tallest building was correlated with impending financial

crisis although the subject of the world’s tallest skyscrapers and their relation

to economic crisis is also prominent in Grant (1996). Lawrence showed

that in almost all cases the initiation of construction of a new record-breaking

skyscraper preceded major financial corrections and turmoil in economic

institutions. Generally, the skyscraper project is announced and construction

is begun during the late phase of the boom in the business cycle; when the

economy is growing and unemployment is low. This is then followed by a

sharp downturn in financial markets, economic recession or depression, and

significant increases in unemployment.

Probably nothing we don't already know or suspect. The fall of London? Which is currently enjoying a massive boom in skycraper building from The Shard to that Walky Talky thing in the City.

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I think these things should be dubbed 'Minsky Follies' in honour of the man who worked out the dynamic that creates them.

They are in effect a physical manifestation of his view that the boom and bust cycle is driven by oscillations between optimistic and pessimistic perceptions of the future- with the Follies inevitably being built at the hight of the optimistic phase that leads to the amplified risk taking that eventually then creates the bust- and a new cycle commences.

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Not an article but a 24 page PDF. Perhaps a bit of bedtime reading for HPC posters!

http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_4.pdf

Probably nothing we don't already know or suspect. The fall of London? Which is currently enjoying a massive boom in skycraper building from The Shard to that Walky Talky thing in the City.

The Blade in Reading

Ironic name if you've ever been in a fight in Reading.

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Generally skyscraper's are hugely costly to build, and most of the time represent an awful return on investment. Its only when credit booms elevate land values sufficiently that the small footprint and large height of skyscrapers make financial sense.

At least in places like London anyway.

Some admittedly are built for no reason other than an expression of decadence.

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Cardiff over the last 10 years. It would be quite an exaggeration to say its turning into Hong Kong, but it certainly has transformed. I don't understand who, apart from footballers, can afford to live in some of these apartments.

Many of the newer office buildings seem to be of the 'see-through' variety.

IMHO, overall the new buildings are fairly aesthetically pleasing, but still...something doesn't add up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures_in_Cardiff

The city currently has three buildings under construction taller than 100 metres.

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Generally skyscraper's are hugely costly to build, and most of the time represent an awful return on investment. Its only when credit booms elevate land values sufficiently that the small footprint and large height of skyscrapers make financial sense.

At least in places like London anyway.

Some admittedly are built for no reason other than an expression of decadence.

http://www.gizmag.com/london-skyline-skyscrapers-town-planning/31610/

The rise of London's skyline – more than 230 new towers planned

Some are sharp, some are boxy, some tubular. Some will be built in pairs, groups of three or clusters. More than 230 new towers are being built or planned for London, making Renzo Piano’s Shard look like a modest proposal and St Paul’s almost quaint.

The think tank New London Architecture researched planning permissions and applications for buildings over 20 stories and found that hundreds are in the process of obtaining permission, have been approved or are already under construction. Of these, 80 percent will be residential and most will be over 35 stories......

Worth looking through the article. Given the absolute aversion of most brits to living in flats, the scale of these proposals suggests a London based housing bubble driven almost entirely by foreign investors.

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http://www.gizmag.com/london-skyline-skyscrapers-town-planning/31610/

Worth looking through the article. Given the absolute aversion of most brits to living in flats, the scale of these proposals suggests a London based housing bubble driven almost entirely by foreign investors.

...So I see, plenty of money purchasing property for investment, a place to store riches or leverage up on cheap money that is losing its value, property that remains empty but still has a tax advantage.......still, look on the bright side, not the need for extra schools, hospitals, doctors, jobs....think of the traffic congestion and overcrowded transport systems this prevents......if there was not the demand they would not be built....white elephants in the sky or is that ivory towers in the sky? ;)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/14/the-worlds-cities-are-gobbling-up-land-faster-than-theyre-gaining-people/

Edited by winkie

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Looks impressive from the pictures. I wonder what the build quality is like.

No idea about the build quality, I emailed them ages ago and asked if the sun provided vitamin D. They didn't know.

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  • 246 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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