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MAIN HELP TO BUY MARK2 THREAD -


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7000 buyers on deals worth a total of £1.3bn if tweets are to be believed.

No wonder builder shares have gone to the moon.

google.com/m?hl=en&gl=gb&client=ms-android-vf-gb&source=android-launcher-search&q=7000+help+to+buyers

followed that link to the Official .gov site...It says:

The Help to Buy equity loan is an instant hit, with almost 7,000 reservations in the first 3 months, Housing Minister Mark Prisk said today.

Since its launch in this year’s Budget, thousands of prospective homebuyers have been seizing the opportunity to buy a new-build home with just a fraction of the normal deposit, and over 1,000 sales have already been completed.

7000 reservations

thousands of prospects

1000 sales.

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followed that link to the Official .gov site...It says:

The Help to Buy equity loan is an instant hit, with almost 7,000 reservations in the first 3 months, Housing Minister Mark Prisk said today.

Since its launch in this year’s Budget, thousands of prospective homebuyers have been seizing the opportunity to buy a new-build home with just a fraction of the normal deposit, and over 1,000 sales have already been completed.

7000 reservations

thousands of prospects

1000 sales.

Even 7000 in a few months isn't really going to make a dent. And how many of those would have bought anyway?

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Even 7000 in a few months isn't really going to make a dent. And how many of those would have bought anyway?

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/is-ramping-the-uk-housing-market-really-the-way-to-kick-start-economic-growth/

This may have been posted further up the thread, but it is well worth a read. Mr Richards is simply an excellent analyst.

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Spotting this on the front page, a thought occurred to me that Gidiot's actually been quite clever/devious. If he wants to be re-elected, he's got a contradiction to sort out:

  1. Keep house prices high
  2. Be seen to 'do something' for generation rent (a growing demographic, and a concern for their parents)

HTB fits the bill very nicely (provided preventing another bubble isn't a priority)...

Edit to add: Actually, now I've read the article rather than just the headline, I'm pretty sure that's what the journalist is saying as well...

Edited by tomandlu
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Spotting this on the front page, a thought occurred to me that Gidiot's actually been quite clever/devious. If he wants to be re-elected, he's got a contradiction to sort out:

  1. Keep house prices high

  2. Be seen to 'do something' for generation rent (a growing demographic, and a concern for their parents)

HTB fits the bill very nicely (provided preventing another bubble isn't a priority)...

Edit to add: Actually, now I've read the article rather than just the headline, I'm pretty sure that's what the journalist is saying as well...

The problem the Cons have is that they are completely oblivious to the fact that this is not some early-stage bubble where the apparent damage caused by rising prices is not obvious and it just seems like people are getting free money. It is now all too apparent that this policy has wreaked havoc on large parts of society for the benefit of a fairly small proportion, and that small fraction would probably vote Tory regardless. Pumping prices further on an already tapped out populous just smacks of cruelty now. In short, I think the idea that HTB wins votes is not to be assumed, and in fact the opposite may be true.

The upper echelons of the Conservative party have displayed a severe lack of good judgement on pretty much everything from policy to the individuals whose company they keep. I usually hide from party activists but I might have some words with those who come knocking in the run up to 2015.

Edited by cheeznbreed
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The problem the Cons have is that they are completely oblivious to the fact that this is not some early-stage bubble where the apparent damage caused by rising prices is not obvious and it just seems like people are getting free money. It is now all too apparent that this policy has wreaked havoc on large parts of society for the benefit of a fairly small proportion, and that small fraction would probably vote Tory regardless. Pumping prices further on an already tapped out populous just smacks of cruelty now. In short, I think the idea that HTB wins votes is not to be assumed, and in fact the opposite may be true.

The upper echelons of the Conservative party have displayed a severe lack of good judgement on pretty much everything from policy to the individuals whose company they keep. I usually hide from party activists but I might have some words with those who come knocking in the run up to 2015.

IMO more like desperation, they don`t want it falling apart on their watch, although it has already pretty much fallen apart (just ask anyone who can`t shift their house) It remains to be seen if it pumps prices in any meaningful way (asking prices might be pumped, but that is meaningless) Long time before the election really, plenty of time for multiple wheels to come off.

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If you can take it, it has a website and Twitter feed.

http://www.helptobuy.org.uk/

Got to love the Comical Ali levels of media management. The HTB twitter feed has a retweet:

my4walls @My4wallsYorks

Help to Buy: an "ingenious scheme" - Treasury's infrastructure minister Lord Deighton http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23482525

Retweeted by Help to Buy

The article linked is this BBC one:

Vince Cable warns Help to Buy could create new 'bubble'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23482525

which has the sockpuppet Deighton's quote buried within it.

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Help to Buy: an "ingenious scheme" - Treasury's infrastructure minister Lord Deighton

In what way is guaranteeing £130bn of lending which would normally be too risky for the banks "ingenious"?

or, is he just referring to the way they've managed to keep it out of the national accounts?

Edited by oldsport
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Agreed. They are even trying to have HTB 'shows' to pull in the punters in some places:

http://www.homesinha...iew=news&ID=246

With the figures from the US (manipulated or not) I am now convinced they are laying the groundwork for rate rises. HTB will be less risky for the government and taxpayer if people selling are forced to drop their prices by rate rises, and by doing the "roll up roll up" bit now they hope to have a new batch of sheeple primed to borrow smaller amounts on property but at higher rates?

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With the figures from the US (manipulated or not) I am now convinced they are laying the groundwork for rate rises. HTB will be less risky for the government and taxpayer if people selling are forced to drop their prices by rate rises, and by doing the "roll up roll up" bit now they hope to have a new batch of sheeple primed to borrow smaller amounts on property but at higher rates?

Well there's this article by AEP about Larry Summers becoming Fed chair and unwinding QE

Monetarists see recovery danger from 'Summers Fed'

President Barack Obama has signalled over recent days that he wants a shift towards a hard money stance at the Fed, calling for a new chairman willing to “keep our dollar sound” and ensure financial stability. “Let’s also keep an eye on inflation, and if it starts heating up, if the markets start frothing up, let’s make sure that we’re not creating new bubbles.”

The comments have been taken as a desire to move beyond the era of quantitative easing (QE) under current chairman Ben Bernanke, who steps down in January and is already a lame duck.

.........................

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  • 2 weeks later...

7000 buyers on deals worth a total of £1.3bn if tweets are to be believed.

No wonder builder shares have gone to the moon.

google.com/m?hl=en&gl=gb&client=ms-android-vf-gb&source=android-launcher-search&q=7000+help+to+buyers

Now 10,000 reservations 13th Aug.

7,000: 12th July

4,000: 6th June

So, start(April 1st)-6th June: 65 days, 62 reservations/day average.

7th June-12th July: 37 days, 81 reservations/day average.

13th July-13th Aug: 32 days, 94 reservations/day average.

So HTB take up rate accelerating at the moment.

There is £3.5Bn allocated for the 'Equity Loan' part of HTB. A reservation takes a bite of approximately £35k from the funds, meaning 100k reservations to exhaust the pot. The scheme seems to have been based on a three-year period with an average take-up of 100 per day, roughly. At present it is roundabout the right 'run rate' to do as planned, give or take a bit for size of deposits etc.

I have serious doubts regarding the sustainibility of the take up rate, but only time will tell if these are misplaced.

Edited by cheeznbreed
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Not surprised the mentality is to get on the housing ladder , the 20% Gov loan no one cares about all they are seeing is the much cheaper

deposit needed.The fact they are over paying for the house in first place means nothing especially with the builder advertising the equity loan as a discount !!

I also think there is a lot of bank of Mum and Dad involved here in my own experiance I have herd colleagues being told by thier parents to get on the ladder (renting is dead money) and the parents helping them out.

3 winners in this situation

1) The Gov creating a feel good factor to win the election

2)Builders who are continuing to build poorly built shoes box sized places and charging a premium for them

3)Banks

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What's the odds on HTB becoming a permanent fixture now?

The gov will know that as soon as they cease the scheme house prices will slump again so if either labour or cons win next election they will just say something like "we will not abandon the youngsters who work and want to buy a home so we are continuing HTB"

Me and my partner are saving to buy our house cash, and I was fully expecting a slow steady decline of hps, but I never saw this scheme coming.

No money for police or nurses or teachers, but plenty of money to artificially inflate house prices.

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Of course it is permanent, how can they reverse it? It is a prop to support prices and if it is removed prices will fall in the same way that when the prop was put in place prices rose. George has bet everything on rising house prices via FLS and HtB .... he hasn't got a clue about what happens later and he does not actually care. The election is all that matters and that needs HPI.

The way this mess is shaping up the HTB has been far too 'effective', far too quickly. It's a long way to May '15 when people are panning your policy left, right and centre and it's increasingly apparent that the 'boom' is backed with Sweet Fanny Adams.

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I made the same point on another thread ... if the election was next May then the timing would be fine with HPI in the months leading up to the election. But this seems too early and it could all collapse well before May 2015.

Yes, only read it after I posted. Agree although even May '14 is looking a long way off. I've seen a couple of views that HTB part 2 should be canned, and perhaps these voices will grow stronger as Jan approaches. Conservative conference promises to be fun given they are bound to get grilled on HTB a lot. Incessantly, with any luck.

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OK only 18 properties on help to buy in Buckinghamshire linked in from the official HTB website. The rest are shared ownership with service charges. Take this one.....

http://www.catalysthomebuy.co.uk/homeseekers/property/3029

Bedroom Detached House in The Steeples, Aylesbury Vale

Scheme Help to Buy

Available Thursday 11th April

Full Market Value £314,995.00 :o

Plot 66 - Cornell The Steeples

Description

A lovely light entrance hall leads you to a wide lounge with an elegant bay window, or to the downstairs cloakroom. The spacious kitchen family dining room has a separate utility, a glazed bay and french doors to the garden. On the first floor, you'll find 4 bedrooms; a master with en suite, 2 double rooms, a family bathroom and a single bedroom that could be used as a study.

Property Cost

Scheme: Help to Buy

Full market property value £314,995.00

Initial share in the property 80%

Value of Equity Loan £62,999.00

Likely required deposit £15,749.75

Initial proportion of the property funded with mortgage and deposit £251,996.00

Monthly Costs

Service Charge £0.00

Address

Plot 66 - Cornell The Steeples

Calvert Green

Buckinghamshire MK18 3FS

"Equity loan fees

You won’t be charged loan fees for the first 5 years of owning your home.

In the 6th year, you’ll be charged a fee of 1.75% of the loan’s value. After this, the fee will increase every year. The increase is worked out by using the Retail Prices Index plus 1%.

Your Help to Buy agent will contact you before the fees start, to set up monthly payments with your bank. You’ll also be sent a statement about your loan each year.

Fees don’t count towards paying back the equity loan."

So 5 years on from starting to pay a fee you will be paying nearly 2.25% on this loan (assuming rpi +1% and that rpi stays at 4%) - £1411ish a year, not much really, but a £250K mortgage on top?! When rates go normal....

Edited by Spoony
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The Tories are also alienating some their core voters; second steppers with bunk beds in their flat and no garden, parents with graduate kids who don't have a job, people retiring who get sod all annuity rates etc. There seems to be a big switch to UKIP but doubt this will carry to the election.

As house prices are now soaring at 3% (ITV) HtB is not needed .... except to pay the builders.

Yes, it's hard to imagine which Tory strategists supposed that the votes of hardworking aspirant twenty/thirtysomethings were well worth sacrificing on the long term to chase a diminishing pool of greytops. They'll reap the whirlwind all right.

If UKIP poll double figures in 2015, I'll expect them to get no seats but simultaneously deliver the Cons a whalloping. I saw the latest poll prediction at ukpollingreport shows an increased Lab majority of 86, down on earlier in the year but up recently.

I'd love to sit in on a Con strategy meeting, they must be bricking it. Membership down ~50% under Dave. Likely to go lower still, I'd venture.

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They had already locked in the old vote by the triple guarantee plus all the free stuff and from the oldies I know they are concerned about cash now such as fuel allowance and free bus passes not how much their house is worth as that is either future care home fees or money the kids will waste on tat.

Disgruntled second steppers on the other hand are probably not that bothered about gay marriage and HS2 but would like to move up the 'property ladder' and they are probably not even benefiting from low low mortgage rates.

And priced out renters who would have voted Tory will now have second thoughts, plus the students with massive student loan / fee debts and no job will not vote Tory as they move back home to their old room after uni.

Interesting, hadn't considered the view of a 'second stepper', having carefully avoided becoming one myself.

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Yes, it's hard to imagine which Tory strategists supposed that the votes of hardworking aspirant twenty/thirtysomethings were well worth sacrificing on the long term to chase a diminishing pool of greytops. They'll reap the whirlwind all right.

...

They aren't that clever. They aren't clever at all.

The policy is based upon their experience of their world, in which everyone loves house price inflation because it makes them rich.

The time is coming, it might already be here, when house price inflation is electoral suicide.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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