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R K

Knight Frank/markit House Price Sentiment Index

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Markit Economics@MarkitEconomics Knight Frank/ Markit HPSI at 56.8 in July, highest reading since data collection began in February 2009 http://******/12AK72c

http://www.markiteco...ecbe0b381d7302d

Funding for lending and Gidiot's Help to Sell schemes seem to be driving sentiment and credit availability higher.

Another Tory housing boom looks to have been kickstarted.

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit said: "July’s house price sentiment survey is the first indication that strong rises in property values have continued into the second half of 2013. A heady mix of improved household credit availability, low mortgage rates and government incentive schemes has brought house price expectations to their strongest level for three-and-a-half years.

“House price sentiment among people aged 25-34years can provide a useful bellwether of first time buyer demand, and this cohort saw a large jump in house price expectations since June. Within the 25-34years of age category, around five times as many

people anticipate an increase in property values over the next 12 months as those that foresee a decline.

“Overall, the latest survey is another clear indication that the wheels of the property market have been well and truly greased, and this is likely to become increasingly clear in the ‘hard data’ for UK house prices during the months ahead”

Edited by R K

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http://www.markiteco...ecbe0b381d7302d

Funding for lending and Gidiot's Help to Sell schemes seem to be driving sentiment and credit availability higher.

Another Tory housing boom looks to have been kickstarted.

But, but its keeping your rents low! (says the BBC).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23362593

You are still thinking about the bad news aren't you?

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Do you think it'll be bigger or smaller than the Labour one?

You mean the New Labour one?

There's only one political party in this country and it's The City of London Corporation.

God Save the Queen! Landowner!

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House price sentiment in the UK is at a five-year high

13 December 2013Households' perception of the value of their home has risen to a five-year high, an index has shown.

The Markit House Price Sentiment Index rose to 59.4 during December, and any value over 50 indicates prices are rising.

The index found people in London, the east of England and the South West were most positive about the price rises.

Those in the South East anticipated the biggest rise in house prices over the next year.

Expectations about future prices also rose to near pre-recession highs.

more http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25358891

That sentiment is going to get spanked down pretty soon, imo, and this time all the excuses for debt-victims and illusions that nearly all older owners don't want HPI (when so many actually do), will be overcome by real HPC.

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1390782376[/url]' post='1102456651']

That sentiment is going to get spanked down pretty soon, imo, and this time all the excuses for debt-victims and illusions that nearly all older owners don't want HPI (when so many actually do), will be overcome by real HPC.

You hope.

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That sentiment is going to get spanked down pretty soon, imo, and this time all the excuses for debt-victims and illusions that nearly all older owners don't want HPI (when so many actually do), will be overcome by real HPC.

Possibly, but it's ten years since my wife and I first had a "we should buy a house but by god they're expensive" conversation. Any 'victory' now is going to feel pretty pyrrhic after a decade of being forced to pick the best of some bad options.

Largely why we've given up on our own account and are just trying to do the best by our kids. A decade of anger and frustration gets pretty wearying...

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It's a Double Bubble, just like the 1970s. Now Osborne's freed up the boomer clowns responsible for the first peak and set them to work dementedly ramping up the second.

Short stocks, long property looks like the only way to go.

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It's a Double Bubble, just like the 1970s. Now Osborne's freed up the boomer clowns responsible for the first peak and set them to work dementedly ramping up the second.

Short stocks, long property looks like the only way to go.

You are Nadeem Walayat and I claim my shiny new unforgeable 94p coin. ;)

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That sentiment is going to get spanked down pretty soon, imo, and this time all the excuses for debt-victims and illusions that nearly all older owners don't want HPI (when so many actually do), will be overcome by real HPC.

I tend to agree that the Market has lost a bit of momentum. I had expected things to continue to build on the frenzy at the start of the year. My own view of the Market is that it has become more balanced with new stock coming on. Both rightmove and RICs have shown/ commented on a flattening in the trajectory of this mini boom.

I think this sentiment index might be a commentary on what has happened in the last two months and not on the actual current position.

I wouldn't like to guess whether this is just a pause for breath or the mini boom tailing off.

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I think this sentiment index might be a commentary on what has happened in the last two months and not on the actual current position.

I wouldn't like to guess whether this is just a pause for breath or the mini boom tailing off.

Agreed. And either would I after the budget changes, although I'm not taking a defeatist position that retirement fund drawdowns going to be chasing property/BTL, at super high prices.

And if that's how it plays out, then there may be some there will be some short-term advantages somewhere for non-owners, and later longer term advantages.

Also, I guess any sentiment index, such as this one had it been around, was rising and flying high in 2006/07 as well.

If I were being cynical I might suspect they probably only launched such a sentiment-index in the 2009, after 2008 pace-down, at tail of negative sentiment times (falling prices), so they could show a QE/0.5% joy of property sentiment flying high as prices rose again post-2009. "Buy and invest and buy; look at the positive rising sentiment that can't be wrong. Home-owners never are wrong."

Thread subtitle: Knight Frank/markit House Price Sentiment Index 56.8 in July highest reading since Feb '09

Summary: The Knight Frank/Markit House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) was launched in February 2009 and is based on a survey of homeowners, who are asked whether they believe the value of their home will rise, stay the same or fall over the coming year.

Data: The survey used for the The Knight Frank/Markit House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) is carried out by market research firm Ipsos MORI and involves approximately 1,500 householders from its online panel, who are aged between 18 and 64.

....Disadvantages: There is a danger that homeowners will be overly optimistic or pessimistic about the value of their home. It is not based on actual house prices so does not offer an accurate picture of house price movement.

in full http://www.home.co.u...knightfrank.htm

Edited by Venger

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http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0a4e1e9f9034efa9486cffb2b85d54c

Future house price expectations ease to six-month low
Key headlines for June2014
Households in all 11 regions covered by the House Price Sentiment Index perceive that prices rose in June, although in most cases at a slower pace than May.
Expectations for future price growth, while still positive, fell to a six - month low in June,
indicating that households are expecting more modest gains than in previous months
.
In London, expectations for future house price growth moderated again from recent peaks
to the lowest level since December 2013.
Some 6.2 % of UK households plan to buy a property in the next year
A lead indicator
Since the inception of the HPSI, the index has been a clear lead indicator for house price trends. Figure 2
shows that the index moves head of mainstream house price indices, confirming the advantage of
an opinion‐based survey which provides a current view on household sentiment, rather than historic
evidence from transactions or mortgage market evidence
Edited by R K

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http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/economy/is-the-heat-is-being-taken-out-of-the-uks-property-market-as-mortgage-lending-falls-flat-may/

It will be interesting to see if we have hit a plateau or things get going again in the autumn. Trying to second guess the market has seemed impossible these last two years but all sources are remarking on this collapse in sentiment.

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http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/economy/is-the-heat-is-being-taken-out-of-the-uks-property-market-as-mortgage-lending-falls-flat-may/

It will be interesting to see if we have hit a plateau or things get going again in the autumn. Trying to second guess the market has seemed impossible these last two years but all sources are remarking on this collapse in sentiment.

MarkIt sentiment indicators are usually pretty good and well ahead of the data.

As you can see from the chart. Rate of growth is clearly going to slow.

It also suggests Carney's jawboning is working. He may not have to take action with his mystical 'tools' at all if the mere mention of an early rate rise and 'we have tools to deal with that' does the job for him, which appears to be what's happening.

Edited by R K

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MarkIt sentiment indicators are usually pretty good and well ahead of the data.

As you can see from the chart. Rate of growth is clearly going to slow.

It also suggests Carney's jawboning is working. He may not have to take action with his mystical 'tools' at all if the mere mention of an early rate rise and 'we have tools to deal with that' does the job for him, which appears to be what's happening.

I agree he appears to be winning the war over the pestilence of house price inflation with words alone.........at present it is mainly contained within the M4 corridor and a few hotspots up north. Interestingly the disease has never been contained in previous cycles and a ripple has always broken out. But perhaps this time really is going to be different, I guess we are also dealing with a crash that was arrested before a bottom had been discovered.

Wishful thinking perhaps from Northern academics that are waiting for the ripple second coming up in Lancaster. They had their eyes fixed south only last week apparently.....

http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lums/news/comment/explosive-london-housing-bubble-will-spread-to-the-rest-of-the-uk/

Edited by crashmonitor

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I agree he appears to be winning the war over the pestilence of house price inflation with words alone.........at present it is mainly contained within the M4 corridor and a few hotspots up north.

The master of forward guidance...

The question is, what happens if his words cause too much of a move the other way in London and the isolated hotspots? Carney's version of forward guidance seems to be more about manipulating current sentiment than actually giving accurate information ahead of time. In fact I think he said as much in an interview prior to taking over at the BoE.

But when sentiment moves a market it's not simply a case of making small adjustments like a sheepdog nipping at the sheep's heels and making them pull circus tricks in one direction or the other. It'll be more like getting a tank-slapper on a motorbike, getting progressively more out of control with each lurch.

But of course, Carney's experience is only in blowing bubbles, not managing them.

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Markit Economics @MarkitEconomics 6m

Knight Frank/Markit UK House Price Sentiment Index at 62.4 in July, down from 62.5 in June http://******/1oQ4Nxb pic.twitter.com/uElvUCaaO7

Bs0Gd1qIgAA-qH7.jpg
Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit
, said:
July’s survey suggests that the Bank of England’s recent announcements regarding macroprudential
tools aimed at the UK housing market have already started to bring down households’ property price
expectations from the multi-year highs seen earlier in 2014.
“Only the South East and West Midlands saw a fresh survey record-high for current property values inJuly, while households in ten out of eleven monitored UK regions are now less sanguine about
the outlook compared with the peaks recorded in the first half of the year.
“Londoners’ property price expectations are the lowest so far this year, and the gap between the
capital and UK-wide house price expectations is now the narrowest since late-2011.
Expectations for house price growth in London moderate for third
consecutive month
Key headlines for July 2014
Households in all 11 regions covered by the House Price Sentiment Index perceive that
prices rose in July, although in most cases at a slower pace than June .
Expect ations for future price growth have moderated from recent highs, indicating that
households are expecting more modest price growth than in previous months
.
In London expectations for future house price growth eased for the third consecutive month to the lowest level since December 2013.
Some 6.7 % of UK households plan to buy a property in the next year
Edited by R K

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By about mid-2004, sentiment was on red alert for a crash. Was it a leading indicator then?

Link?

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2004 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3617236.stm

2003 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3155582.stm

It's ok though, "they didn't know what they were doing / just wanted a home" when the crash came, and all the other apologists excuses, for bailout and reflation and money printing and rates floored to protect the hpi.

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The chart seems to be telling me "HPSI is useless as a leading indicator".

Why? In May 2010, the highest balance of people ever thought prices would go up in the 12 months. By 12 months later - May 2011 - all three HPI indices said house prices had dropped by about 1%.

So when people are most confident about future prices, prices proceed to drop the most. Or am I reading this wrong?

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2004 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3617236.stm

2003 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3155582.stm

It's ok though, "they didn't know what they were doing / just wanted a home" when the crash came, and all the other apologists excuses, for bailout and reflation and money printing and rates floored to protect the hpi.

Nice pair of examples!

2003: [respected economists] say prices due a correction.

2004: The media in general are full of it.

So compared to those, where are we now?

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UK households report home values rose at slowest rate in 5 months in August

August’s House Price Sentiment Index shows that while households in all regions perceive that the value of their homes rose in August, it was at the slowest rate since March.

Expectations for future price growth ticked up, but still remain substantially lower than May’s record-high.

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said: “UK house price sentiment remains strong overall, although it has cooled in each month since hitting a post-crisis peak in May. Not only does the sweet spot appear to have passed for house price sentiment, but the current period of decline is now the longest seen for almost four years. “Moreover, tighter mortgage conditions and the prospect of interest rate rises have acted to rein in households’ expectations of higher property values over the year ahead.

http://www.knightfrankblog.com/global-briefing/news-headlines/uk-households-report-home-values-rose-at-slowest-rate-in-5-months-in-august/

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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