Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
zugzwang

Savills: Average House Price Nearly £200,000 By 2017

Recommended Posts

Has someone been taking a peek at Osborne and Carney's Grand Plan? :lol:

Classic use of a misleading chart btw.

http://www.dailymail...ng-200-000.html

House prices will rise by nearly 20 per cent over the next five years with the cost of the average home reaching nearly £200,000, research revealed today.

Savills, the upmarket estate agency, said it has upgraded its housing market forecast from a rise of 11.5 per cent by 2017 to a jump of 18.1 per cent.

The research said 'government intervention' partly triggered the upgrade while critics warned the interventions are fuelling a house price boom but doing nothing to help lending to businesses.

Savills predicts the average home, worth around £162,000 at the beginning of the year, will be worth £191,631 by the end of 2017, a rise of nearly £30,000 or 18.1 per cent.

While mortgage lending is rising, lending to businesses continues to fall.

Yesterday the Business Secretary Vince Cable said estimates show net lending by UK banks to small and medium-sized firms has been negative for 22 of 24 months to May.

Separate figures, from the Bank of England, also published yesterday, show lending to all businesses contracted by around £4.5billion between March and May.

article-2369356-1AA79BD2000005DC-126_634x460.jpg

Lucian Cook, director of residential research at Savills, said: 'A combination of low interest rates and stimulus measures means there is capacity for improved price growth over the next three years or so.'

The Government's two Help to Buy schemes are also helping to fuel the housing market, pushing a home even further out of the reach of many workers on average salaries.

One of the Help to Buy schemes allows people to buy a new-build home with only a five per cent deposit.

The other Help to Buy, which will launch in January, allows anybody from a first-time buyer to a 'second move' to buy an old or new home for up to £600,000 with only a small deposit, but a Government guarantee on a further chunk of the loan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

* As long as interest rates stay low.

To keep the ponzi going, they need to make the cost of entry lower and lower. We are already seeing 0% teaser rates in the market.

Edited by Gone to Ireland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has someone been taking a peek at Osborne and Carney's Grand Plan? :lol:

Classic use of a misleading chart btw.

article-2369356-1AA79BD2000005DC-126_634x460.jpg

dcq7.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The government can make anything expensive if it puts its mind to it.

I would like to know what they will be doing about oil/gas/electricity/fuel costs........not doing much about that, house prices will not be going anywhere upwards as long as fuel cost continue to escalate as they are......the bigger elephant in the room. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

George's mate Carney will keep them low for until after the election, might even reduce the base rate instead of printing. And of course Savill's predictions are always on the money ... look at the graph, prices fell but have now recovered and are on a clear upward trend. Better buy now or you will miss out they are going to rise by 20% in three or four years.

Ultimately it's not up to Carney, it's up to the markets.

If As bond prices start continue rising, they will be forced to increase interest rates.

We has some interesting news yesterday that was HPC positive, nobody here seemed to pick up on it:

House prices in China were continuing to rise at circa 7% yoy.

Yes, that means more tightening by the Chinese, who will be dumping all of their lovely dollars onto the market to raise collateral. This pushes up the price of bonds as we have been seeing. In turn this will have a knock on effect in UK mortgage rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to make a point.

https://mninews.marketnews.com/index.php/china-june-house-prices-rise-fastest-pace-three-years?q=content/china-june-house-prices-rise-fastest-pace-three-years

China June House Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In Three Years

BEIJING (MNI) - Chinese house prices rose at their fastest pace in three years in June as buyers continued to pour in off the sidelines, convinced that a government crackdown on market speculation lacks bite.

Prices for new Chinese homes rose 8.81% y/y in June, according to a floor-space weighted average of prices in the 35 largest cities calculated by MNI. That marks the fastest pace since a +9.42% y/y gain in June 2010 and compares with May's +7.84%, +6.60% in April and +4.88% in March.

On a sequential basis, prices rose for a 13th straight month in June, rising 1.01% m/m, only marginally slower than May's +1.06% and compared with April's +1.30% and March's +1.45%.

In first-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, year-on-year gains remained solidly above 10%.

Prices fell in just one of the 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics in June on an on-year basis, versus three in May. They fell in five cities on a month-on-month basis in June versus one in May.

Expectations for prices to continue to rise remain persistent, despite the new government's stated commitment to bring order to the market. Potential buyers have said that they are starting to look again because prices are continuing to rise despite the signals from Beijing.

Some government economists have claimed that Beijing doesn't want to crack down too hard, noting that housing remains one of the only bright spots in the Chinese economy.

The NBS, which released the data on Thursday, abandoned its own national price indicator in 2011 as part of an overhaul of its methodology for collating house price data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why don't they just make every house £1mil and be done with it ..as long as people can afford the monthly payments the actual cost doesn't seem to matter

As well as the government intervention and Foreign investment from my own experiance the factor keeping the market going is bank of Mum and Dad. So prices going up so that group can remortgage and give their kids the money for deposit and keep things ticking over means no end in sight IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why don't they just make every house £1mil and be done with it ..as long as people can afford the monthly payments the actual cost doesn't seem to matter

As well as the government intervention and Foreign investment from my own experiance the factor keeping the market going is bank of Mum and Dad. So prices going up so that group can remortgage and give their kids the money for deposit and keep things ticking over means no end in sight IMO

What happens if interest rates rise 1%?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What happens if they go down to 0.25%? What happens if the government guarantee deposits? What happens of they give interest free deposits to people who can't afford to buy property? What happens to people with 200k mortgages who can'y afford the repayments?

If rates rise then George could always provide tax relief on the interest or invent some new SMI type scheme. What ever needs to be done to get house prices increasing will be done, nothing else matters ... there is an election to win

Absolutely true, he and Carney can do almost anything they like with house prices if they're prepared to print enough money. The markets won't bark this side of an election unless they do something truly spectacular. Post 2015, however... tick tock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the government will keep the housing market treading water until the next election, there will also be additional printing to keep bond yields tied down should they continue to rise.

After 2015 (possibly as late as 2018) we are due another dip in the debt cycle (assuming a 7-10 variation), and my hunch is, given that it will be a further recession inside a depression, propogate the start of another crisis, and that they (the politicians) have fooled themselves into believing that monetary stimulus really is beneficial, will repeatedly hit the "Enter" key on the magic money machine without a second thought.

Edited by GradualCringe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only revisiting the peak of 2007 in nominal terms, ten years on.................

Indeed this was my prediction here on Housepricecrash in January 2007 (in the days when I didn't use a space bar apparently). Far from calling it wrong (as bulls like to think) most of us saw what was coming. ''ten years out we are looking at about the same price'. I was also expecting a crash/recovery pattern in those ten years, as we appear to be on course with.

HPC discussions on the forthcoming crash in 2007..........

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=41162&st=0

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What would happen if China blows up in really big way?

This is one of the things I'm hoping might trigger a crash.

But would it affect us much?

My guess is, that they (China), will do what the rest of the world have done i.e. print money to stave off a further crisis.

I think almost all of the major economies will eventually take the path of currency destruction (the politicians would say competitive devaluation and monetary stimulus ) in an effort to fix asset prices.

I think politians and leaders have lost the plot, and people generally do not understand what's happening to put a stop to it.

Edited by GradualCringe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 246 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.