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deano_54321

Its Not Going To Happen....is It?!?

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Hi There!

Its been a while since I logged on. Mainly because I decided to buy a car and forget about the Housing Market for a while, just to see what happens!! Well, I've been saving and saving and thought I would come back to see how things are going. I have to admit, I sorely disappointed. All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction, the media are talking things up again, and in all honesty I cannot see this "crash" happening! Believe me, I want the market to crash as much as most other people on this site. But even the optimists (wanting the market to crash) are surely having doubts now!? I know this thing doesn't happen overnight, but we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now and it really does not look like this "cycle" of peaks and troughs is going to continue as we are being made to believe! Am I talking crap here or do I have a point.

Discuss - and try not to be biased! I am really interested on what people have to say, but it was such a disappointment when I logged back on today. :(

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Hi There!

Its been a while since I logged on. Mainly because I decided to buy a car and forget about the Housing Market for a while, just to see what happens!! Well, I've been saving and saving and thought I would come back to see how things are going. I have to admit, I sorely disappointed. All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction, the media are talking things up again, and in all honesty I cannot see this "crash" happening! Believe me, I want the market to crash as much as most other people on this site. But even the optimists (wanting the market to crash) are surely having doubts now!? I know this thing doesn't happen overnight, but we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now and it really does not look like this "cycle" of peaks and troughs is going to continue as we are being made to believe! Am I talking crap here or do I have a point.

Discuss - and try not to be biased! I am really interested on what people have to say, but it was such a disappointment when I logged back on today. :(

You certainly have a point, its taking longer than most expected - although I never expected a crash just a decline. At the end of the day its all about sentiment - while people think they can afford to buy they will pay inflated prices, there is no real rime or reason as to when people will stop thinking like that but all is certain is that it will happen sometime - all asset prices goes in cycles. Sentiment will eventually change, the time to buy is when the guy in the local pub says "Why would you want to buy a house, prices always seem to go down".

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Hi There!

Its been a while since I logged on. Mainly because I decided to buy a car and forget about the Housing Market for a while, just to see what happens!! Well, I've been saving and saving and thought I would come back to see how things are going. I have to admit, I sorely disappointed. All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction, the media are talking things up again, and in all honesty I cannot see this "crash" happening! Believe me, I want the market to crash as much as most other people on this site. But even the optimists (wanting the market to crash) are surely having doubts now!? I know this thing doesn't happen overnight, but we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now and it really does not look like this "cycle" of peaks and troughs is going to continue as we are being made to believe! Am I talking crap here or do I have a point.

Discuss - and try not to be biased! I am really interested on what people have to say, but it was such a disappointment when I logged back on today. :(

IMO the prospect of a crash has diminished. I forecast a band of movement between plus and minus 3 % each yeasr for the next 3.

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All I'll say is, this is the point where we separate the men from the boys(that includes ladies).

I hope some of that pent-up demand is relived, if you know what I mean.

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Hi There!

Its been a while since I logged on. Mainly because I decided to buy a car and forget about the Housing Market for a while, just to see what happens!! Well, I've been saving and saving and thought I would come back to see how things are going. I have to admit, I sorely disappointed. All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction, the media are talking things up again, and in all honesty I cannot see this "crash" happening! Believe me, I want the market to crash as much as most other people on this site. But even the optimists (wanting the market to crash) are surely having doubts now!? I know this thing doesn't happen overnight, but we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now and it really does not look like this "cycle" of peaks and troughs is going to continue as we are being made to believe! Am I talking crap here or do I have a point.

Discuss - and try not to be biased! I am really interested on what people have to say, but it was such a disappointment when I logged back on today. :(

What is there to discuss? You are right.......

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I don't understand the recent spate of "but nothing's happening" posts.

Anyone expecting an overnight KAPOW is dreaming. Anyone expecting consecutive monthly falls of >2% is, IMO, misguided.

This was always going to be a long drawn out affair. It wont feel like a "crash" until you've come out the other side and dusted yourself down.

-20% by Summer 2008, that'll do nicely. B)

If you're holding out for an overnight market collapse then you should expect to be very dissapointed. Is that what some of you guys really expect ? :blink:

Maybe we should change the name to www.HousePriceLongtermdownwardtrend.co.uk !!!

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I don't understand the recent spate of "but nothing's happening" posts.

Anyone expecting an overnight KAPOW is dreaming. Anyone expecting consecutive monthly falls of >2% is, IMO, misguided.

This was always going to be a long drawn out affair. It wont feel like a "crash" until you've come out the other side and dusted yourself down.

-20% by Summer 2008, that'll do nicely. B)

If you're holding out for an overnight market collapse then you should expect to be very dissapointed. Is that what some of you guys really expect ? :blink:

Maybe we should change the name to www.HousePriceLongtermdownwardtrend.co.uk !!!

HI There,

I agree with you mostly, and would agree that 20% by summer 2008 would be ok.

However we were saying the same in 2003 for 2006, and thats not goig to happen! Maybe its just a longer turnaround lets hope.

Im not too disappointed yet, I dont intend to buy until 2007ish anyway (later if we are in an obvious crash by then!), but at the moment the signs do not seem to be good, let s just hope its a short term blip, but as long as the media keep talking things up we're fighting a losing battle - there's only so much we (HPC community) can do.

Edited by deano_54321

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All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction

In what way? Interest rates flat and possibly rising, unemployment up, retail sales down. In order for there to be a house price crash, these are all favourable developments (sanctimonious types please note I am not gloating about these facts, merely pointing out that they logically point to a downward trajectory for house prices).

the media are talking things up again

When did they ever stop??? You will see the stream of "the housing market pick-up is just around the corner, you'll see" articles in the media was pretty much uninterrupted from 1991 right through to 1996 (ie throughout the last crash).

we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now

Most people acknowledge that the peak was July 2004. I'll admit that developments like SIPP's and the government's various HomeBuy and Shore-Up-The-Price-Of-Houses schemes have been a kick in the face for FTB's.

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It will be fascinating to see what will happen if we don't have a HPC. If the current levels of affordability are just the way it's going to be for the forseeable future then we will have the remarkable social phenomena of a small, affluent landlord class and a less wealthy tenant class with restricted social mobility between the two. Britain after a further 20 years of globalisation could resemble Brazil with shit weather; a small wealthy, property owning middle class and millions of chavs living in the equivalent of favelas.

If the analogy holds we'll also have a good football team and affordable high quality whores so it's not all bad news.

Edited by jackalope

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at the moment the signs do not seem to be good

Sorry, but really couldn't disagree with you more. The signs look clearer than ever to me......we're heading for trouble.

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It will be fascinating to see what will happen if we don't have a HPC. If the current levels of affordability are just the way it's going to be for the forseeable future then we will have the remarkable social phenomena of a small, affluent landlord class and a less wealthy tenant class with restricted social mobility between the two. Britain after a further 20 years of globalisation could resemble Brazil with shit weather; a small wealthy, property owning middle class and millions of chavs living in the equivalent of favelas.

If the analogy holds we'll also have a good football team and affordable high quality whores so it's not all bad news.

If this meant UK women overnight no longer being fat blobs and becoming curvy babes with friendly personalities it might be worth it. :D

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In what way? Interest rates flat and possibly rising, unemployment up, retail sales down. In order for there to be a house price crash, these are all favourable developments (sanctimonious types please note I am not gloating about these facts, merely pointing out that they logically point to a downward trajectory for house prices).

I am talking about the graphs on the HPC main homepage. When I last logged in (late July) the mothly figures for actual house prices were nearly all downward trends - they're now nearly all upward. Hopefully the outside influences you mention will soon have an impact on this, but this is what we thought was happening earlier this year and prices are slightly up more recently.

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It will be fascinating to see what will happen if we don't have a HPC. If the current levels of affordability are just the way it's going to be for the forseeable future then we will have the remarkable social phenomena of a small, affluent landlord class and a less wealthy tenant class with restricted social mobility between the two. Britain after a further 20 years of globalisation could resemble Brazil with shit weather; a small wealthy, property owning middle class and millions of chavs living in the equivalent of favelas.

If the analogy holds we'll also have a good football team and affordable high quality whores so it's not all bad news.

Cheers, jackalope, and what's in it for us women? Unless the country's suddenly going to be peopled by hot dark men you can keep it!

:)

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Cheers, jackalope, and what's in it for us women? Unless the country's suddenly going to be peopled by hot dark men you can keep it!

:)

Well given our immigration policy that is simply out of control I can say with a high degree of certainty that it will be peopled by dark men. Only you can judge their hotness!

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It will be fascinating to see what will happen if we don't have a HPC. If the current levels of affordability are just the way it's going to be for the forseeable future then we will have the remarkable social phenomena of a small, affluent landlord class and a less wealthy tenant class with restricted social mobility between the two. Britain after a further 20 years of globalisation could resemble Brazil with shit weather; a small wealthy, property owning middle class and millions of chavs living in the equivalent of favelas.

If the analogy holds we'll also have a good football team and affordable high quality whores so it's not all bad news.

Agreed on all counts! A great post! :lol::lol::lol:

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I'm quite pleased that some of the members of this site are becoming disillusioned. If you take that sentiment as a snapshot of the country's FTBers then I guess it means quite a few of them will give up on the crash and buy.

To me it just means people like you will cause a little further HP growth next year, rubber feline style, followed by a bigger crash. My opinion is that the beginning of a HP crash will be obvious from June 06. The further the bubble rises - the further it must fall to correct.

I think a good indication of when you are in a bubble in a market is when the market continues to rise long after most reasonable people could expect. *Most* people here, I consider reasonable (insults on a postcard please), and most people here expected a crash some time ago. So I think we're in a bubble, and that can only be good (for me). Twisted logic probably.

If my conviction is ever shaken, I only need look back at the history of house prices, and draw that extra line that continues the pattern. After all, what has changed? Given that there has been no fundamental economic reform in this country recently as we still use all the same economic measures and controls as far as I am aware, so I can't see any reason for this pattern to be broken. If you took that graph and changed the title from "House Prices 1940-2005" to "Share Prices 1940-2005" and asked people in the street to predict the future, they'd draw the same line as me - DOWN

If you change the title back to "House Prices 1940-2005", then they'd draw a different line completely.

Why is this? Because they don't want to believe it. Most are not involved in shares but live day to day checking how rich their house has made them.

All I'm saying is, that there are no answers here. Do what you believe. My belief is unshakeable.

I read and post here not to be an egotistical "told you so", or to be an aggressive "never happen - you're all idiots", but just for information. I like the news blog thing more than anything else, waiting, watching.

IMO, it is pointless having two sides to this argument on any forum. Both sides have made up their mind. Both have their reasons for their belief. Personally I respect any poster like Dr.Bubb who has a wealth of information I am yet to see anyone try to disprove through anything other than insult. Maths and history are king for me. I wish someone could disprove it, at least I'd have a counter argument to buy, which I desperately want to do. Singing pigs, BTL's, FTB's and STR's should all stay on their own sites and big each other up there.

I mean, when will a winner be declared?

Noone wins in the end. Except the banks.

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If this meant UK women overnight no longer being fat blobs and becoming curvy babes with friendly personalities it might be worth it. :D

The curves might be silicone induced and they might not necessarily be women... :)

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It will be fascinating to see what will happen if we don't have a HPC. If the current levels of affordability are just the way it's going to be for the forseeable future then we will have the remarkable social phenomena of a small, affluent landlord class and a less wealthy tenant class with restricted social mobility between the two. Britain after a further 20 years of globalisation could resemble Brazil with shit weather; a small wealthy, property owning middle class and millions of chavs living in the equivalent of favelas.

If the analogy holds we'll also have a good football team and affordable high quality whores so it's not all bad news.

This is my favourite post of the month.

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Guest Winners and Losers

In Australia there was 12mths of soft landing talk and all the while prices went down each month. There will be no big bang, but the slide has started. Went I first bought a property in 1997, in London, I only had to come up with 3,000 deposit. The wages just are not rising quickly enough. Its simple. The only way is down.

Hi There!

Its been a while since I logged on. Mainly because I decided to buy a car and forget about the Housing Market for a while, just to see what happens!! Well, I've been saving and saving and thought I would come back to see how things are going. I have to admit, I sorely disappointed. All of the graphs seem to be heading in the wrong direction, the media are talking things up again, and in all honesty I cannot see this "crash" happening! Believe me, I want the market to crash as much as most other people on this site. But even the optimists (wanting the market to crash) are surely having doubts now!? I know this thing doesn't happen overnight, but we have been looking for downward movement for the last 2.5 years now and it really does not look like this "cycle" of peaks and troughs is going to continue as we are being made to believe! Am I talking crap here or do I have a point.

Discuss - and try not to be biased! I am really interested on what people have to say, but it was such a disappointment when I logged back on today. :(

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It must be frustrating if you have been waiting for house price deflation for a year or two. I've been doing it for just six months and feel pretty confident that the trend is in the direction I would like to see, though I try to keep an open mind, weighing the evidence as a whole. Overall, we can be sure that have seen a huge reduction in HPI with a trend towards zero. On that basis alone I would be happy to stick with renting for at least a year. In the area I live in, the LR YoY figure actually shows minus 1.6% July to September and if that continues I would think of renting for at least two years. IMO the best thing to do right now is wait to see how the process plays out. It's a low risk strategy. Very few expect price rises - including, interestingly, many of the VIs. The Halifax, the Nationwide and RICS have become markedly more bearish in the last month. This morning on Today the NW spokesperson was the most bearish I have heard them recently - no pick up in the market next year, no price rises expected, and (first time I've heard this in a long time) talking about the need for caution in lending practices.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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