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The Knimbies who say No

B O E Trends In Lending

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BoE page containing pdf and spreadsheets

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/other/monetary/TrendsinLending/2013/Julypublication.aspx

The first spreadsheet contains the non-adjusted net lending figures, and these continue to show a downward trend y-o-y (May is the most recent month). Consistent with BBA numbers.

There's a rise in approvals, consistent with what has been seen elsewhere so perhaps the net lending trend will be reversed in a few months.

Table 1.B in the .pdf on page 5 shows net (seasonally adjusted) flows in lending, April/May are at a similar level to Q1 2013.

Spring bounce..?

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Thanks c'n'b. Lending still looking very flat overall, even with the FLS. Significant uptick in remortgaging activity since the end of 2012 but in aggregate the figure's no higher than it was even in 2010. 3.0% annual growth rate in consumer credit they put down to a rise in car finance, so at least we now have a better idea where the bump in UK car sales is coming from - subprime autoloans, just like the US.

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BoE page containing pdf and spreadsheets

http://www.bankofeng...ublication.aspx

The first spreadsheet contains the non-adjusted net lending figures, and these continue to show a downward trend y-o-y (May is the most recent month). Consistent with BBA numbers.

There's a rise in approvals, consistent with what has been seen elsewhere so perhaps the net lending trend will be reversed in a few months.

Table 1.B in the .pdf on page 5 shows net (seasonally adjusted) flows in lending, April/May are at a similar level to Q1 2013.

Spring bounce..?

As the CML point out approvals (i.e. the data they supply) don't reliably align with actually lending (BBA and BSA) especially given the rate of property transactions which fall through or take 6 months.

The recent up tick is small in comparison to the level that transactions used to run at.

The lender commented that they expected HP to have only small HP rises or stay flat.

Edited by koala_bear

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Thanks c'n'b. Lending still looking very flat overall, even with the FLS. Significant uptick in remortgaging activity since the end of 2012 but in aggregate the figure's no higher than it was even in 2010. 3.0% annual growth rate in consumer credit they put down to a rise in car finance, so at least we now have a better idea where the bump in UK car sales is coming from - subprime autoloans, just like the US.

No bother. Good point about the carloans, hadn't picked that up. The UK's car sales figures are way out of kilter with other countries so it makes sense. Otherwise as you say, secured lending as flat as a pancake, even with FLS.

As the CML point out approvals (i.e. the data they supply) don't reliably align with actually lending (BBA and BSA) especially given the rate of property transactions which fall through or take 6 months.

The recent up tick is small in comparison to the level that transactions used to run at.

The lender commented that they expected HP to have only small HP rises or stay flat.

Indeed, perhaps I've been infected with the rampmania we've seen in the past few months since HTB was launched. You're right, the uptick is small overall. I'm very keen to see how sales of existing properties fare in light of HTB, it's a pretty good release valve for those that feel they have to buy. No chains etc, and perhaps the perception of a fairly 'straight deal' exists as the houses have newbuild guarantees for workmanship etc.

If you gave a journo from planet Zog the data series over the past 5 years for approvals, net lending and prices, and then asked them to construct a likely media reporting narrative, I doubt they would get close to the incessant ramping, misinformation and downright untruths that have characterised coverage we have seen.

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No bother. Good point about the carloans, hadn't picked that up. The UK's car sales figures are way out of kilter with other countries so it makes sense. Otherwise as you say, secured lending as flat as a pancake, even with FLS.

Indeed, perhaps I've been infected with the rampmania we've seen in the past few months since HTB was launched. You're right, the uptick is small overall. I'm very keen to see how sales of existing properties fare in light of HTB, it's a pretty good release valve for those that feel they have to buy. No chains etc, and perhaps the perception of a fairly 'straight deal' exists as the houses have newbuild guarantees for workmanship etc.

If you gave a journo from planet Zog the data series over the past 5 years for approvals, net lending and prices, and then asked them to construct a likely media reporting narrative, I doubt they would get close to the incessant ramping, misinformation and downright untruths that have characterised coverage we have seen.

Ha. Only if the commercial interests of his newspaper were perfectly aligned with the political interests of those promoting a house price bubble.

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'The stock of lending to both small and medium-sized

enterprises (SMEs) and large businesses contracted in the

three months to May.'

'The total flow of net lending in sterling by UK-resident

mortgage lenders was positive in the three months to May'

'Gross lending to SMEs and repayments by them declined

over most of 2012 (

Chart A

). With repayments being higher

than gross lending, net lending — defined as gross lending

minus repayments — was negative over this period and has

been since the series began in 2011 Q2'

' The latest

SME Finance

Monitor

reported that around three quarters of SMEs surveyed

had not applied for a new or renewed credit facility in the year

to 2013 Q1,'

'Bank of England and HM Treasury announced an extension

to the Funding for Lending Scheme, which has been designed

in such a way as to provide considerably greater incentives for

banks to lend to SMEs. '

'Claims for possessions issued in the

courts were little changed in the year to 2013 Q1. The

possessions rate — the ratio of the number of properties

taken into possession to the number of outstanding

mortgages — was also broadly flat in the year to 2013 Q1.'

'The annual rate of growth of consumer credit (excluding

student loans) was above 3% in May (

Table 1.C

), the highest

in over four years. This partly reflected an increase in car

finance'

Guardian3/6/13

'Lending at the two state-supported banks, along with Spanish bank Santander, fell sharply according to the FLS data. Lloyds' lending contracted by £6.6bn and that by RBS fell by £4bn even though the two banks have taken £3bn and £750m respectively from the FLS since it began. Santander withdrew £8.6bn of credit despite taking £1bn of cheap FLS money. The troubled Co-operative Bank took £900m from the FLS but its lending contracted by £300m. The Co-op has halted all small-business lending while it tries to stabilise its business after its credit rating was slashed to junk status.'

Guardian 24/4/13

'As the Bank of England announced a year-long extension of the funding for lending scheme (FLS) to January 2015, it said banks lending to credit-deprived small businesses could be offered up to 10 times the access to the cheaper loans. Non-banks, such as leasing companies, will also be able to access the cheaper funding through the FLS for the first time.'

So,we have a downturn in SME lending continuing and an uptick in car loans,mortgages and consumer credit.I hope people aren't basing their borrowing increases on their job prospects.

Either small businesses can't get credit or maybe,just maybe,they don't want it.It seems all too easy in these days to mistake a lack of supply for a lack of demand.

It says it all that they're increasing lending to leasing companies which are just one intermediary away from gullible consumers.

I find it hard to trust the banks figures figures on financial distress given the broader downdraft in disposable incomes.

Recovery far off for families as disposable income sees biggest drop for 25 years

Edited by Sancho Panza

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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