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The Rise Of Anti-Eu Political Parties.

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'Cracks in the pro-euro consensus are starting to show'

WSJ

A book by a Portuguese economist - Why We Should Leave The Euro' - achieved a small feat on its release last month: It instantly topped Portugal's bestseller list, overtaking several diet books and even the popular erotic novel "Fifty Shades of Grey."

As the euro zone's recession drags on, cracks in the pro-euro consensus are starting to show. Communist parties in Portugal and Cyprus have turned against euro membership. Two parties in Italy's Parliament—the Northern League and comedian Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement—want a euro referendum. And two small anti-euro parties recently formed in depression-hit Greece. Even in prosperous Germany, angst about the cost of euro-zone bailouts has led to the launch of an anti-euro party, Alternative for Germany.

This is without mentioning the rise and rise of UKIP.

Is it possible that these parties could soon become a catch-all for protest and discontent? Not simply because EU-led austerity is so deeply unpopular. But because the established parties are all mired in either the current bust or in causing it in the first place. That creates a big political vacuum.

To boot, most established PIIGS parties are mired in corruption as well. The current slush-fund scandal in Spain should normally have brought down Rajoy's government. But the socialist opposition can barely capitalise while firefighting a scandal of similar gobsmacking corruption in Andalusia.

There is EU backlash in all this, when its European 'partners' are largely viewed as partners-in-crime.

Moreover - the big thing - established national parties in bailout countries are being seen as increasingly impotent when faced with Troika diktats and loss of sovereignty. So what's the point of voting for them?

At the moment, I'm thinking more that political implosion will happen sooner that financial meltdown. It looks like they can fudge figures forever, but denying public sentiment is a bit more difficult.

What's your take?

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I think any anti-EU parties are a long way from power because the EU is seen as a way of enabling entitlements such as pensions, high house prices and other wealth enjoyed mainly by the older generations. In Greece the old voted for staying in the EU and keeping entitlements whereas the young voted for the anti-EU parties.

Even if you agree the Euro is destroying the economy you might put up with it if you think you're more likely to get your pension paid for. A Euro exit might well mean a massive destruction of paper wealth and a reset which doesn't sound great if you have retired.

Similar story with house prices in the UK. Everyone knows deep down it is wrecking the economy, but it's still a vote winner since so many are house owners and don't want the value of their property to go down.

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Similar story with house prices in the UK. Everyone knows deep down it is wrecking the economy, but it's still a vote winner since so many are house owners and don't want the value of their property to go down.

Cynically, I see why one would imagine this.

But the polls emphatically say that Osborne's supposed housing 'vote winner' for the Coalition has had no effect whatsoever. Lib Dems down to 6%, UKIP around 20%. Who'da thunk it?

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/07/13/tonights-bumper-polling-night-all-the-main-online-firms-have-surveys-for-the-sundays/

There are simply too many people now in the ranks of the disaffected. Even more true in the Eurozone.

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Cynically, I see why one would imagine this.

But the polls emphatically say that Osborne's supposed housing 'vote winner' for the Coalition has had no effect whatsoever. Lib Dems down to 6%, UKIP around 20%. Who'da thunk it?

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/07/13/tonights-bumper-polling-night-all-the-main-online-firms-have-surveys-for-the-sundays/

Exactly. If he allowed house prices to fall then he'd be losing votes even more dramatically.

Why do you think Labour the party of ever rising house prices and public sector spending are going to get back in?

There are simply too many people now in the ranks of the disaffected. Even more true in the Eurozone.

Well if looks as though there are elections coming soon in Portugal. What's the betting a pro-EU government gets back in?

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'Cracks in the pro-euro consensus are starting to show'

WSJ

This is without mentioning the rise and rise of UKIP.

Is it possible that these parties could soon become a catch-all for protest and discontent? Not simply because EU-led austerity is so deeply unpopular. But because the established parties are all mired in either the current bust or in causing it in the first place. That creates a big political vacuum.

To boot, most established PIIGS parties are mired in corruption as well. The current slush-fund scandal in Spain should normally have brought down Rajoy's government. But the socialist opposition can barely capitalise while firefighting a scandal of similar gobsmacking corruption in Andalusia.

There is EU backlash in all this, when its European 'partners' are largely viewed as partners-in-crime.

Moreover - the big thing - established national parties in bailout countries are being seen as increasingly impotent when faced with Troika diktats and loss of sovereignty. So what's the point of voting for them?

At the moment, I'm thinking more that political implosion will happen sooner that financial meltdown. It looks like they can fudge figures forever, but denying public sentiment is a bit more difficult.

What's your take?

The arrogant govts of Europe are not seeing the erupting south creeping north Euro crisis. UKIP is not just a filler of political vacuum; it is actually reflecting a large % of peoples real views. In this case, the Tories have failed to be Tory, the LibDems have just failed, period. There is no confidence in any old mainstream party. Therefore it is possible to see a change in British politics emerge. Otherwise we are heading towards a hung parliament again. I suspect the British public may not actually bring themselves to vote for Ed Milliband in large enough numbers when they actually have the pencil in their hands.

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'Cracks in the pro-euro consensus are starting to show'

WSJ

This is without mentioning the rise and rise of UKIP.

Is it possible that these parties could soon become a catch-all for protest and discontent? Not simply because EU-led austerity is so deeply unpopular. But because the established parties are all mired in either the current bust or in causing it in the first place. That creates a big political vacuum.

To boot, most established PIIGS parties are mired in corruption as well. The current slush-fund scandal in Spain should normally have brought down Rajoy's government. But the socialist opposition can barely capitalise while firefighting a scandal of similar gobsmacking corruption in Andalusia.

There is EU backlash in all this, when its European 'partners' are largely viewed as partners-in-crime.

Moreover - the big thing - established national parties in bailout countries are being seen as increasingly impotent when faced with Troika diktats and loss of sovereignty. So what's the point of voting for them?

At the moment, I'm thinking more that political implosion will happen sooner that financial meltdown. It looks like they can fudge figures forever, but denying public sentiment is a bit more difficult.

What's your take?

..too true ..all true ...the unhealthy French dominance of running the IMF has ensured the delayed survival of an artificial 'union'...nature will take it's course, eventually and the French will learn even they can't stop the tide coming in.... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

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Exactly. If he allowed house prices to fall then he'd be losing votes even more dramatically.

Why do you think Labour the party of ever rising house prices and public sector spending are going to get back in?

Well if looks as though there are elections coming soon in Portugal. What's the betting a pro-EU government gets back in?

Pretty high. It's easy in the UK to imagine that europeans hate the EU because a lot of people over here are euro sceptic.

But when you talk to europeans a significant proportion of them are pro eu. They associate the eu with a significant increase in living standards, even if that was achieved unsustainably.

My guess is that it will be a few years yet before the negative sentiment grows strong enough to seriously threaten the pro eu parties. And by then the rebalancing may well be over anyway.

People in the cash strapped south know what will happen if they give local politicians control over the currency. Leaving the euro is no solution to the fundamental problem that is going on.

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But when you talk to europeans a significant proportion of them are pro eu. They associate the eu with a significant increase in living standards, even if that was achieved unsustainably.

...yes..the French have benefited and continue to benefit more than most.... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

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My guess is that it will be a few years yet before the negative sentiment grows strong enough to seriously threaten the pro eu parties.

I'd beg to disagree. In both Greece and Spain (and in UK, in a different way), people voted for an alternative party and got the same old, same old, only worse.

Here's a clip from Spain about the current protest against evictions, despite the fact that there are thousands of empty homes. Some fairly negative sentiment here.

It has not gone unnoticed that the EU has recapitalised errant Spanish banks to the tune of 100bn while people are being thrown on the streets by those same banks.

Pablo Lopez - Mi Casa

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............It has not gone unnoticed that the EU has recapitalised errant Spanish banks to the tune of 100bn while people are being thrown on the streets by those same banks...............

...hah..and we are more than likely contributing indirectly ..and yet the EU did not have to do so with us and our High Street delinquants....who are continuing to surface... :rolleyes:

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I'd beg to disagree. In both Greece and Spain (and in UK, in a different way), people voted for an alternative party and got the same old, same old, only worse.

Here's a clip from Spain about the current protest against evictions, despite the fact that there are thousands of empty homes. Some fairly negative sentiment here.

It has not gone unnoticed that the EU has recapitalised errant Spanish banks to the tune of 100bn while people are being thrown on the streets by those same banks.

Pablo Lopez - Mi Casa

People got the same old same old because that is all there is. There is no alternative. Either enact the reforms within the Euro and EZ, or enact them outside. If they choose to go outside and don't enact them they will be impoverished even more so than they are at the moment.

I think people in the EZ want to keep the euro because they fear greatly what will happen if they exit the EU and give the local politicians control. They fear that they could lose everything and that's a strong fear to have.

We can both cite any number of anecdotes but that doesn't reflect the global situation, it's just cherry picking to suit our respective arguments.

Stuff like this is probably more relevant :

http://www.voxeu.org/article/crisis-and-public-support-euro

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/trust-eu-falls-record-low

To me the issue of being in or out of the euro is a blurring of the real issue. The real issue is either to have an economy that is realistic and sustainable or not.

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I think any anti-EU parties are a long way from power because the EU is seen as a way of enabling entitlements such as pensions, high house prices and other wealth enjoyed mainly by the older generations. In Greece the old voted for staying in the EU and keeping entitlements whereas the young voted for the anti-EU parties.

Even if you agree the Euro is destroying the economy you might put up with it if you think you're more likely to get your pension paid for. A Euro exit might well mean a massive destruction of paper wealth and a reset which doesn't sound great if you have retired.

Similar story with house prices in the UK. Everyone knows deep down it is wrecking the economy, but it's still a vote winner since so many are house owners and don't want the value of their property to go down.

High house prices are a feature of the UK not the Eurozone. High house prices exist because the UK is able to rig the market. Sterling, not the Euro is destroying the UK economy and being in the Euro prevents other countries being like the UK.

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Similar story with house prices in the UK. Everyone knows deep down it is wrecking the economy, but it's still a vote winner since so many are house owners and don't want the value of their property to go down.

Sadly this about sums it all up for me.

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I think any anti-EU parties are a long way from power because the EU is seen as a way of enabling entitlements such as pensions, high house prices and other wealth enjoyed mainly by the older generations. In Greece the old voted for staying in the EU and keeping entitlements whereas the young voted for the anti-EU parties.

Even if you agree the Euro is destroying the economy you might put up with it if you think you're more likely to get your pension paid for. A Euro exit might well mean a massive destruction of paper wealth and a reset which doesn't sound great if you have retired.

Similar story with house prices in the UK. Everyone knows deep down it is wrecking the economy, but it's still a vote winner since so many are house owners and don't want the value of their property to go down.

Many are catching on that they will never sell and realise that value though, the "value" is just a statistic now where before, up to 2007, you could put a house on the market and have people chewing your arm off to buy it?

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As people thoughout Europe get poorer they will want scape goats, the costs of the EU are obvious to everyone exept mainstreem politicians.

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High house prices are a feature of the UK not the Eurozone. High house prices exist because the UK is able to rig the market. Sterling, not the Euro is destroying the UK economy and being in the Euro prevents other countries being like the UK.

That's not true at all. Silly prices abound in Holland and many Eastern European countries too. There are plenty of ways of rigging the market with or without the Euro. In Eastern Germany, many of the old empty plattenbau have been demolished to keep prices high. Reckless lending in non-national currencies, such as the Swiss Franc, raised prices in Eastern Europe. Lack of affordable housing in UK has much to do with the deliberate eradication of council houses. And so on . . .

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'Cracks in the pro-euro consensus are starting to show'

WSJ

This is without mentioning the rise and rise of UKIP.

Is it possible that these parties could soon become a catch-all for protest and discontent? Not simply because EU-led austerity is so deeply unpopular. But because the established parties are all mired in either the current bust or in causing it in the first place. That creates a big political vacuum.

To boot, most established PIIGS parties are mired in corruption as well. The current slush-fund scandal in Spain should normally have brought down Rajoy's government. But the socialist opposition can barely capitalise while firefighting a scandal of similar gobsmacking corruption in Andalusia.

There is EU backlash in all this, when its European 'partners' are largely viewed as partners-in-crime.

Moreover - the big thing - established national parties in bailout countries are being seen as increasingly impotent when faced with Troika diktats and loss of sovereignty. So what's the point of voting for them?

At the moment, I'm thinking more that political implosion will happen sooner that financial meltdown. It looks like they can fudge figures forever, but denying public sentiment is a bit more difficult.

What's your take?

Not sure there ever was a pro-euro consensus, at least amongst voters. You could be forgiven for thinking tje UK is much less EU-sceptic than it really is, were you to restrict your view to the powerbase amongst the main three parties. They are increasingly finding that a pro-EU stance is not universally popular, and, will cost a fair few of them their job in 2015.

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That's not true at all. Silly prices abound in Holland and many Eastern European countries too. There are plenty of ways of rigging the market with or without the Euro. In Eastern Germany, many of the old empty plattenbau have been demolished to keep prices high. Reckless lending in non-national currencies, such as the Swiss Franc, raised prices in Eastern Europe. Lack of affordable housing in UK has much to do with the deliberate eradication of council houses. And so on . . .

Would a hpc have occurred in the UK if the UK didn't have the BoE with the freedom to print house prices?

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Would a hpc have occurred in the UK if the UK didn't have the BoE with the freedom to print house prices?

Would housing bubbles have happened in the PIIGS without the ridiculously low post-Euro interest rates?

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Would housing bubbles have happened in the PIIGS without the ridiculously low post-Euro interest rates?

Possibly not but then they wouldn't have had the post boom hpc's either would they? Unlike the UK the PIIGS had a boom AND a bust.

Edited by campervanman

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Possibly not but then they wouldn't have had the post boom hpc's either would they?

All PIIGs experienced vast HPI after the Euro introduction.

However, only Ireland and Spain, the two countries with the largest bubbles, experienced large price reductions since 2008.

No meaningful HPC in Italy and Portugal, and only moderate falls in Greece (considering they are totally bust).

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All PIIGs experienced vast HPI after the Euro introduction.

However, only Ireland and Spain, the two countries with the largest bubbles, experienced large price reductions since 2008.

No meaningful HPC in Italy and Portugal, and only moderate falls in Greece (considering they are totally bust).

Really? Portugal yoy -7%, Italy yoy -6%. I suspect a few on here would be happy with 'moderate' falls like that. Note that Holland with similar levels of overcrowding but without it's own printing presses has seen big falls in the last year too.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2360339/Euro-house-price-league-Which-European-nations-house-prices-grew-7-7-year--did-values-plummet-12-8.html

Face it, keeping the pound is incompatable with a hpc. Keeping the pound enables any UK government to keep the Ponzi going and to reduce living standards by stealth by avoiding dealing with the structural problems in the UK.

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Face it, keeping the pound is incompatable with a hpc. Keeping the pound enables any UK government to keep the Ponzi going and to reduce living standards by stealth by avoiding dealing with the structural problems in the UK.

Not if we elect a responsible government. Of course the last one that vaguely fitted that description lost in a landslide to Teflon Tony.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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