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I don't really understand the stock market rise on the back of the suppsed backing-off from tapering of the FED.

As I understand it, Ben B said he was thinking of reducing tapering later in the year if the economy continues to improve.

Then the UK says "interest rates are not rising soon" and the stock market recovers. Which is not news surely, the Fed are talking about removing tapering, not increasing interest rates?

Then the fed release some notes which basically say the same as before - and the stock market goes up again?

What's going on?

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I don't really understand the stock market rise on the back of the suppsed backing-off from tapering of the FED.

As I understand it, Ben B said he was thinking of reducing tapering later in the year if the economy continues to improve.

Then the UK says "interest rates are not rising soon" and the stock market recovers. Which is not news surely, the Fed are talking about removing tapering, not increasing interest rates?

Then the fed release some notes which basically say the same as before - and the stock market goes up again?

What's going on?

Market manipulation by soundbite.

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I don't really understand the stock market rise on the back of the suppsed backing-off from tapering of the FED.

As I understand it, Ben B said he was thinking of reducing tapering later in the year if the economy continues to improve.

Then the UK says "interest rates are not rising soon" and the stock market recovers. Which is not news surely, the Fed are talking about removing tapering, not increasing interest rates?

Then the fed release some notes which basically say the same as before - and the stock market goes up again?

What's going on?

They are actually screwing around with the forward advice concept. The whole point of forward advice is that it has to be good advice not a hotchpotch of mixed messages.

I must admit I find the whole forward advice thing a bit iffy. For example with Carney, how can he give forward advice on IR setting if it is decided by commitee ? Has everyone decided to agree to the forward advice ?

My guess is that once the markets figure out it is valueless we will be back to square one.

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I don't really understand the stock market rise on the back of the suppsed backing-off from tapering of the FED.

As I understand it, Ben B said he was thinking of reducing tapering later in the year if the economy continues to improve.

Then the UK says "interest rates are not rising soon" and the stock market recovers. Which is not news surely, the Fed are talking about removing tapering, not increasing interest rates?

Then the fed release some notes which basically say the same as before - and the stock market goes up again?

What's going on?

The junkies don't want to go cold turkey and the grown-ups don't want to make them.

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I don't really understand the stock market rise on the back of the suppsed backing-off from tapering of the FED.

As I understand it, Ben B said he was thinking of reducing tapering later in the year if the economy continues to improve.

Then the UK says "interest rates are not rising soon" and the stock market recovers. Which is not news surely, the Fed are talking about removing tapering, not increasing interest rates?

Then the fed release some notes which basically say the same as before - and the stock market goes up again?

What's going on?

What Bernanke says is much less important that what Bernanke does. The Fed is still throwing $115bn a month at the primary dealers. The BoJ is still throwing $80bn at the primary dealers. The BoE will be throwing £n billion at the primary dealers from August (probably). Each and every month that money has to be put to work somewhere. A large chunk is used to buy govt securities, through the familair QE circuit. Anything that's left over gets spent where it's most likely to generate the best instant returns i.e. stocks. Anything that's left over after that gets gambled on real estate, commodities, oil etc. Until Benny comes out and says decisively that QE is going to be wound down this pattern will continue. I happen to believe this will be sooner rather later because the unlimited liquidity provision is now damaging the world economy rather than supporting it.

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I think they beleive they are in control. hence they speak like they are.

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What makes you think it had anything to do with anything Bernanke did or didn't say?

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What Bernanke says is much less important that what Bernanke does. The Fed is still throwing $115bn a month at the primary dealers. The BoJ is still throwing $80bn at the primary dealers. The BoE will be throwing £n billion at the primary dealers from August (probably). Each and every month that money has to be put to work somewhere. A large chunk is used to buy govt securities, through the familair QE circuit. Anything that's left over gets spent where it's most likely to generate the best instant returns i.e. stocks. Anything that's left over after that gets gambled on real estate, commodities, oil etc. Until Benny comes out and says decisively that QE is going to be wound down this pattern will continue. I happen to believe this will be sooner rather later because the unlimited liquidity provision is now damaging the world economy rather than supporting it.

That's what I mean (but didn't state very well): the Fed are saying "prepare for it to stop over the next year" and have effectively re-iterated that.

And yet the market's yo-yo-ing because someone says interest rates aren't going to rise soon, which is talking about a different thing. I don't get it.

It can't be that "the market" doesn't understand the difference between the base rate and the QE purchases, so what's going on?

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That's what I mean (but didn't state very well): the Fed are saying "prepare for it to stop over the next year" and have effectively re-iterated that.

And yet the market's yo-yo-ing because someone says interest rates aren't going to rise soon, which is talking about a different thing. I don't get it.

It can't be that "the market" doesn't understand the difference between the base rate and the QE purchases, so what's going on?

who cares about the interest rate when the recievers of the first order pay little or nothing for it, even exchanging brief cases of turds for it.

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That's what I mean (but didn't state very well): the Fed are saying "prepare for it to stop over the next year" and have effectively re-iterated that.

And yet the market's yo-yo-ing because someone says interest rates aren't going to rise soon, which is talking about a different thing. I don't get it.

It can't be that "the market" doesn't understand the difference between the base rate and the QE purchases, so what's going on?

Isn't it just that the market cares more about what will happen in the next 6 weeks than in the next six months ?

The market is liquid and people can sell on a sixpence.

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What's going on?

Stock market = real assets. When cash is being trashed, they offer the least-bad substitute. Alternatives like houses lack liquidity even when they offer value.

So when Bernanke says cash debasement will stop or slow, cash becomes more attractive and alternatives less necessary. Conversely when Carney says the £ will be debased more, you need to find an alternative.

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99% of all of this is ******! They are just using any little bit of news to explain market moves.

The truth of the situation is that we are near the end of a stock market bubble and any news good or bad is bent to fit in with the moves of the market.

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That's what I mean (but didn't state very well): the Fed are saying "prepare for it to stop over the next year" and have effectively re-iterated that.

And yet the market's yo-yo-ing because someone says interest rates aren't going to rise soon, which is talking about a different thing. I don't get it.

It can't be that "the market" doesn't understand the difference between the base rate and the QE purchases, so what's going on?

They're talking about the same thing. QE is used to suppress bond yields, lower carry costs and hold up asset prices. If/when QE is withdrawn bond yields will rise, interest rates will rise and asset prices fall. Since every asset class is in bubble territory already there's a lot of volatility about.

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That's what I mean (but didn't state very well): the Fed are saying "prepare for it to stop over the next year" and have effectively re-iterated that.

And yet the market's yo-yo-ing because someone says interest rates aren't going to rise soon, which is talking about a different thing. I don't get it.

It can't be that "the market" doesn't understand the difference between the base rate and the QE purchases, so what's going on?

You speak as if there's got to be some kind of rhyme or reason to it all. It could just be a load of monkeys prodding at keyboards with sticks as far as I can tell.

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So the best thing to do is carry on printing and hope that it all gets sorted out by the financial fix-it fairy or they could make some hard decisions ... ideally in a few years when it is someone else's problem.

they have no control...all they can do is but a carpet over it and hope nobody trips up over the long dead banking system.

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Stock market = real assets. When cash is being trashed, they offer the least-bad substitute. Alternatives like houses lack liquidity even when they offer value.

So when Bernanke says cash debasement will stop or slow, cash becomes more attractive and alternatives less necessary. Conversely when Carney says the £ will be debased more, you need to find an alternative.

They cease to be real assets when they are priced out of realism, just like housing.

If you are making bets on props then than is one thing but fake asset markets are another unless you are quick in out.

All round an appalling policy is being followed, one that got us in the fix inthe first placed and has been largely responsible for destroying real assets, companies, whole manufacturing sectors and with obviously more to follow as a result of latest actions.

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They cease to be real assets when they are priced out of realism, just like housing.

If you are making bets on props then than is one thing but fake asset markets are another unless you are quick in out.

All round an appalling policy is being followed, one that got us in the fix inthe first placed and has been largely responsible for destroying real assets, companies, whole manufacturing sectors and with obviously more to follow as a result of latest actions.

Really? To me it looks like they're going to taper towards the end of the year, and that this stock market rise is illusory.

I think I read this morning that 30-year mortgage rates hit a new high yesterday, so something is amiss.

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Really? To me it looks like they're going to taper towards the end of the year, and that this stock market rise is illusory.

I think I read this morning that 30-year mortgage rates hit a new high yesterday, so something is amiss.

They cant taper....the reason they cant is that it never worked in the first place...the numbers look good though, and the moment the stop, the numbers look bad.

Obama doesnt have the cojones or the will to take it on the chin...although now would be a good time to stop the nonsense, as Obama cant get re-elected this time around.

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Really? To me it looks like they're going to taper towards the end of the year, and that this stock market rise is illusory.

I think I read this morning that 30-year mortgage rates hit a new high yesterday, so something is amiss.

They are all nothing but talking heads, manipulators and money printers that try and fool people into believing inflation = growth.

The tapering talk is to stop the bond market falling out of bed, As soon as they think they thought they stabilised that they throw the stock market another bone. Like others have said actions not words, but everything is inflated, and bubbled by their actions and words. They have no other policy, none.

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They cant taper....the reason they cant is that it never worked in the first place...the numbers look good though, and the moment the stop, the numbers look bad.

Obama doesnt have the cojones or the will to take it on the chin...although now would be a good time to stop the nonsense, as Obama cant get re-elected this time around.

A classic liquidity trap, all of their own making! But I think Bernanke will need to taper come what may. The US deficit has come down so much that the only place the QE cash can go is in stocks, house prices and commodities. If he lets these go parabolic then he's stuck for sure. Better to take some heat out in September than risk Armageddon thereafter.

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What Bernanke says is much less important that what Bernanke does. The Fed is still throwing $115bn a month at the primary dealers. The BoJ is still throwing $80bn at the primary dealers. The BoE will be throwing £n billion at the primary dealers from August (probably). Each and every month that money has to be put to work somewhere. A large chunk is used to buy govt securities, through the familair QE circuit. Anything that's left over gets spent where it's most likely to generate the best instant returns i.e. stocks. Anything that's left over after that gets gambled on real estate, commodities, oil etc. Until Benny comes out and says decisively that QE is going to be wound down this pattern will continue. I happen to believe this will be sooner rather later because the unlimited liquidity provision is now damaging the world economy rather than supporting it.

Doesnt it just sit in 'excess reserves'?

Sure isnt making the velocity/money multiplyer budge upwards.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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