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I M F Raises Uk Growth Forecast

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As noted on other threads there seems to be a good news assault in full swing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23241500

IMF raises UK economic growth forecast

The IMF upgrade for the UK economy comes after other surveys have shown increasing optimism The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its economic growth forecast for the UK this year from 0.7% to 0.9%. Not since April 2012 has the IMF raised its UK forecast. A Treasury spokesman said it showed that the economy was moving from "rescue to recovery".

In April this year, the Fund cut its forecast to 0.7% from 1%, sparking wide debate about whether Chancellor George Osborne should alter his policies.

Also on Tuesday, the IMF cut its forecast for global economic growth.

The Fund's World Economic Outlook trimmed overall global growth this year by 0.2% to 3.1% because of weakness in emerging market economies. In 2014, growth is forecast to be 3.8%, also down 0.2%.

Rising confidence Although the upward revision of UK growth is modest, it is likely to be cited as evidence that the economy is moving in the right direction.

It comes after surveys in recent days reported a rise in business optimism, growth in the service sector, and confidence in the housing market.

A survey from research firm Markit indicated that the UK service sector grew at its fastest pace for two years in June, and a British Chambers of Commerce survey found UK business confidence at a six-year high.

However, this was tempered on Tuesday with latest Office for National Statistics data showing that UK manufacturing output unexpectedly fell in May.

A Treasury spokesman welcomed the Fund's report: "The IMF has confirmed that the UK economy is moving from rescue to recovery, revising up its growth forecast for this year.

"But the IMF again warns of the continued risks to the global economy, showing that the recovery cannot be taken for granted."

Eurozone recession The IMF's lowering of global growth "was due to appreciably weaker domestic demand and slower growth in several key emerging market economies, as well as by a more protracted recession in the euro area".

Growth in China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa will be slower. The IMF also warned that growth in some economies in the Middle East and North Africa would slow "because of difficult political and economic transitions".

In the US, growth is projected to rise from 1.7% in 2013 to 2.7% in 2014 on the back of rising domestic demand and confidence in the housing market.

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As noted on other threads there seems to be a good news assault in full swing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23241500

The amount of debt in the UK financial system has increased greatly over the past 12 months in part due to schemes such as the Funding for Lending Scheme:

The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said that UK banks approved a total of 65,752 mortgages in May, up 4,490 from the previous month. In the last six months, the banks approved an average 59,776 mortgages.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/483295/20130626/bba-mortgage-lending-housing-market.htm

Debt = Money and the UK economy thrives on debt. This will not last and when it falls more people will be burnt.

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Should give Carney some room for manoeuvre.

He doesn't need any room. If the numbers look good he'll say he's printing to maintain the trend, if the numbers look bad he'll claim to be printing to reverse the trend. Another £200bn QE before May 2015 is still my guess, split half-and-half between gilts and and mortgage backed securities.

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Edited by zugzwang

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He doesn't need any room. If the numbers look good he'll say he's printing to maintain the trend, if the numbers look bad he'll claim to be printing to reverse the trend. Another £200bn before May 2015 is still my guess, split half-and-half between gilts and and mortgage backed securities.

.

Yup, and no interest rate rises this side of 2020. A good time to be a debtor.

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if you blind yourself to the recovery you obscure the real interesting detail of it, which is what sectors are experiencing recovery, which aren't and what consequences this mighr have for us in the economy as a whole.

Although the emphasis has appeared to be to try to rebalance the uk economy, the current results seem to have unbalanced it more than ever.

IMF cuts global growth forecast as emerging markets slow

And yet on the same day we have this...

Clearly our recovery is going to be based on the real value assets we have in the UK housing.

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if you blind yourself to the recovery you obscure the real interesting detail of it, which is what sectors are experiencing recovery, which aren't and what consequences this mighr have for us in the economy as a whole.

Although the emphasis has appeared to be to try to rebalance the uk economy, the current results seem to have unbalanced it more than ever.

Playing to the UK's enduring strengths in embezzlement and Ponzi financing. All we need now is a Doomsday Clock in Parliament Square counting down the seconds to default.

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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