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Spanish House Prices Down 10.6% Y/y

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Yes, but for how many more years will prices fall and will you get to keep the house when prices eventually start to recover?

"Fall since peak 37.2%"

Which is pretty close to the Fib number of 38.2

Edited by Secure Tenant

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IIRC Spanish house prices defied economic gravity for a looong time. Ditto for Holland where YoY declines have recently hit 10%. There's hope for the UK yet....

Hope? It's pretty much a certainty, just a question of timing. I reckon -30% to -40% by the end of the decade.

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how can prices only fall 38% when their banks are busted, the government is bailed, the population is unemployed and people are trying to desperately sell to get the frack out?

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"Fall since peak 37.2%"

Which is pretty close to the Fib number of 38.2

It is. Although most numbers aren't too far away from a FIB number.

It's not only the price in euros of course, it's the likely future deprcn of the euro too. Against $$ at least.

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Hope? It's pretty much a certainty, just a question of timing. I reckon -30% to -40% by the end of the decade.

In real terms, very likely; in nominal terms, I'm not so sure. Remember that, unlike Spain and the Netherlands, we can and probably will devalue our currency.

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In real terms, very likely; in nominal terms, I'm not so sure. Remember that, unlike Spain and the Netherlands, we can and probably will devalue our currency.

I should have said nominal because that is what I meant.

But if Sterling looks like devaluing I'll switch my funds to another currency, as I did a few years ago.

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I should have said nominal because that is what I meant.

But if Sterling looks like devaluing I'll switch my funds to another currency, as I did a few years ago.

Good luck with timing that! At what point will you jump? Sterling has fallen 10% against the euro* over the past year - how do you know if this is a blip or a trend?

Edit: *Which means, of course, that Spanish house prices have remained unchanged for the past year in sterling terms!

Edit: Or, if you prefer, UK houses prices have fallen by almost as much as Spanish house prices over the last year, in euro terms.

Edited by snowflux

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Good luck with timing that! At what point will you jump? Sterling has fallen 10% against the euro* over the past year - how do you know if this is a blip or a trend?

Edit: *Which means, of course, that Spanish house prices have remained unchanged for the past year in sterling terms!

Gut feeling. Last time I bought EUR at 1.5 and sold four or five years later at 1.17. I'm not worried about small swings.

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Remember that, unlike Spain and the Netherlands, we can and probably will devalue our currency.

Makes no difference if people's ability to pay for housing stays flat in nominal terms (or keeps falling). GBP dropped by a third against USD in 2009, did you get a 30-40% nominal pay rise?

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Makes no difference if people's ability to pay for housing stays flat in nominal terms (or keeps falling). GBP dropped by a third against USD in 2009, did you get a 30-40% nominal pay rise?

As it happens, I did, since GBP dropped a similar amount against the euro, and almost all my income is in euros. UK houses then became much more affordable for me. Of course, the same applies to anyone else whose income is not in sterling.

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PIIGS look likely to offer the best value ultimately

Actually, UK housing is now looking good better value from outside the UK. Also 10% cheaper yoy for a German or Frenchman.

Edited by snowflux

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As it happens, I did, since GBP dropped a similar amount against the euro, and almost all my income is in euros. UK houses then became much more affordable for me. Of course, the same applies to anyone else whose income is not in sterling.

Fair enough, but you are not a typical purchaser of UK housing.

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how can prices only fall 38% when their banks are busted, the government is bailed, the population is unemployed and people are trying to desperately sell to get the frack out?

No point in selling.....either live and enjoy knowing worth nothing or get out taking nothing....most other places still will cost..... ;)

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So EZ housing falls in real terms and UK housing falls in nominal terms. FF 10 years and for a UK resident being paid UK pounds housing will be every bit as expensive as 2007 but cheap as chips for anyone with a hard currency as of course will housing be in their own country. Saving the pound=slow but inevitable decline into debt slavery and serfdom.

Edited by campervanman

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So EZ housing falls in real terms and UK housing falls in nominal terms. FF 10 years and for a UK resident being paid UK pounds housing will be every bit as expensive as 2007 but cheap as chips for anyone with a hard currency as of course will housing be in their own country. Saving the pound=slow but inevitable decline into debt slavery and serfdom.

As opposed to...?

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Saving the pound=slow but inevitable decline into debt slavery and serfdom.

funny.gif

MWAHAAHAHAHAHA !!!

Let's see who fares better in 5 years, the UK or the piggies (and you can include your beloved France in them).

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So EZ housing falls in real terms and UK housing falls in nominal terms. FF 10 years and for a UK resident being paid UK pounds housing will be every bit as expensive as 2007 but cheap as chips for anyone with a hard currency as of course will housing be in their own country. Saving the pound=slow but inevitable decline into debt slavery and serfdom.

Yes but the argument has been that British exports soar as a consequence of a devalued pound making them cheaper....Ooops!!!! :rolleyes:

Since 2008, when the £ plunged, UK exports are barely up, Spain's have soared:

Is devaluation the answer?

But the volume of Spanish exports – even without devaluation – has also soared, as the chart shows. In Britain, in contrast, export volumes are scarcely higher than before the devaluation.

chart.png

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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