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Snugglybear

Uk Manufacturing Output Fell In May

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Unexpected.

From the Beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23237654

"UK manufacturing output in surprise fall

UK manufacturing unexpectedly fell in May, contracting at its fastest pace since January, official figures show.

The 0.8% drop was much weaker than analysts' forecasts, with most having predicted a rise. The wider measure of industrial output was unchanged.

The figures run counter to data released recently that has indicated the economy picking up.

Last week, a manufacturing sector survey recorded the best growth for nearly two years in June.

Other surveys pointed to continuing strength in the services sector, and a rise in confidence across UK businesses.

There was more good news for the UK housing market on Tuesday, with surveyors are expecting house prices to keep rising. Last week, the Halifax said that house prices were rising at their fastest annual rate for nearly three years.

'Weak' momentum

Commenting on the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, Lee Hopley. of the EEF manufacturers' organisation, said: "Output gains in electrical equipment and transport sectors weren't enough to offset bigger contractions in pharmaceuticals and metals.

"We did, however, see some growth in exports and signs of stabilisation in Europe providing a slight lift for overseas sales.

"While the ONS data suggest industry's contribution to growth in the second quarter is likely to be limited, there are signs that confidence is returning and growth should start to resume as we move into the second half of the year."

David Tinsley from BNP Paribas said: "Overall, this is not a strong set of data.

"The momentum behind manufacturing remains disappointingly weak, which is troubling, given the economy needs to do more to rebalance towards sectors where it can hope to find demand for its exports."

The ONS also said the UK's trade deficit grew to £8.491bn in May from £8.430bn in April.

"The overall trade deficit is slightly up, but the April figure was revised down, which paints a mixed picture. Worryingly, the volume of exports in goods fell while imports increased," said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce.

"Overall, our trade deficit is still too large, and we are not making fast enough progress in rebalancing our economy towards net exports," he added."

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As someone has pointed out on another thread, the current party line seems to be bigging up the faux recovery, presumably in an attempt to cheer up the populace (and get it spending again?).

Despite the fact that the story is about unexpectedly bad news, at least half of it is "but, but, but... things are getting better".

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More free money for bankers is needed to fix the economy.

Simples.

Direct injection of QE into the economy via a massive social housing building programme would be my solution, but its just not going to happen.

Edited by Secure Tenant

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Gidiot's rebalancing failing to happen.

Oh well, double down on financial services/housing

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As someone has pointed out on another thread, the current party line seems to be bigging up the faux recovery, presumably in an attempt to cheer up the populace (and get it spending again?).

Despite the fact that the story is about unexpectedly bad news, at least half of it is "but, but, but... things are getting better".

Bogus austerity is so last year, all hail the bogus recovery!

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Well trashing the pound hasn't worked has it.

So the only reason they can be keeping interest rates too low and QE is to bail out the debt junkies both private and government.

Sterling could be about to bite them though as the bond markets price in falling sterling into gilts.

Seems to me this is the point in the cycle where the markets do the interest rate increases themselves and the BOE wont be able to stop it.

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Well trashing the pound hasn't worked has it.

So the only reason they can be keeping interest rates too low and QE is to bail out the debt junkies both private and government.

Sterling could be about to bite them though as the bond markets price in falling sterling into gilts.

Seems to me this is the point in the cycle where the markets do the interest rate increases themselves and the BOE wont be able to stop it.

I was thinking that today. Sterling has taken out a number of floors over recent days. It has some support at the the 1.48 level so I wouldn't rule out a rally perhaps to 1.51/1.52.

After that we could be in for some very interesting times. Enjoy the nice weather and the Murray factor whilst it lasts.

Edited by Secure Tenant

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Well trashing the pound hasn't worked has it.

So the only reason they can be keeping interest rates too low and QE is to bail out the debt junkies both private and government.

Sterling could be about to bite them though as the bond markets price in falling sterling into gilts.

Seems to me this is the point in the cycle where the markets do the interest rate increases themselves and the BOE wont be able to stop it.

That's what ive been waiting for for years.

We could speed it all up by voting Labour too.

Successive governments have shown that they, as Sibley said, will do everything it takes to keep asset prices high. So the only way it will stop is if that power is ripped from their cold dead hands.

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I was thinking that today. Sterling has taken out a number of floors over recent days. It has some support at the the 1.48 level so I wouldn't rule out a rally perhaps to 1.51/1.52.

After that we could be in for some very interesting times. Enjoy the nice weather and the Murray factor whilst it lasts.

Falling sterling tends to imply rising FTSE (and other asset prices). And as we all are told by the clever experts on the tellybox, higher stock markets means economic success, innit?

Plus let's not forget, a currency collapse should help fight deflation. The danger of things getting more affordable is receding. Good news all around!

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Falling sterling tends to imply rising FTSE (and other asset prices). And as we all are told by the clever experts on the tellybox, higher stock markets means economic success, innit?

Plus let's not forget, a currency collapse should help fight deflation. The danger of things getting more affordable is receding. Good news all around!

Good news all round. :D

OIL-GBP-30-day-price-history-graph-large.png

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Unexpected.

From the Beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23237654

"UK manufacturing output in surprise fall

UK manufacturing unexpectedly fell in May, contracting at its fastest pace since January, official figures show.

The 0.8% drop was much weaker than analysts' forecasts, with most having predicted a rise. The wider measure of industrial output was unchanged.

The figures run counter to data released recently that has indicated the economy picking up.

Last week, a manufacturing sector survey recorded the best growth for nearly two years in June.

Other surveys pointed to continuing strength in the services sector, and a rise in confidence across UK businesses.

There was more good news for the UK housing market on Tuesday, with surveyors are expecting house prices to keep rising. Last week, the Halifax said that house prices were rising at their fastest annual rate for nearly three years.

'Weak' momentum

Commenting on the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, Lee Hopley. of the EEF manufacturers' organisation, said: "Output gains in electrical equipment and transport sectors weren't enough to offset bigger contractions in pharmaceuticals and metals.

"We did, however, see some growth in exports and signs of stabilisation in Europe providing a slight lift for overseas sales.

"While the ONS data suggest industry's contribution to growth in the second quarter is likely to be limited, there are signs that confidence is returning and growth should start to resume as we move into the second half of the year."

David Tinsley from BNP Paribas said: "Overall, this is not a strong set of data.

"The momentum behind manufacturing remains disappointingly weak, which is troubling, given the economy needs to do more to rebalance towards sectors where it can hope to find demand for its exports."

The ONS also said the UK's trade deficit grew to £8.491bn in May from £8.430bn in April.

"The overall trade deficit is slightly up, but the April figure was revised down, which paints a mixed picture. Worryingly, the volume of exports in goods fell while imports increased," said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce.

"Overall, our trade deficit is still too large, and we are not making fast enough progress in rebalancing our economy towards net exports," he added."

There has been insufficient rebalancing towards an export led recovery! The figures tend to show that the economy as a whole shows some signs of life, while manufacturing is actually stagnant. Therefore we are again entering a housing led so called recovery which will HAVE TO PETER OUT. It is not sustainable and the policy of pumping up the housing market as an alternative to real policies will come undone. Imports will increase for a while and the balance of payments will suffer because we are not really paying our way in the world. The 'help to buy scheme' was called 'moronic' by the head of Societe General - and no wonder.

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Well trashing the pound hasn't worked has it.

So the only reason they can be keeping interest rates too low and QE is to bail out the debt junkies both private and government.

Sterling could be about to bite them though as the bond markets price in falling sterling into gilts.

Seems to me this is the point in the cycle where the markets do the interest rate increases themselves and the BOE wont be able to stop it.

Told you so.

(Ok, not you specifically, but anyway)

Lowering the value of a currency does not boost exports.

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There has been insufficient rebalancing towards an export led recovery! The figures tend to show that the economy as a whole shows some signs of life, while manufacturing is actually stagnant. Therefore we are again entering a housing led so called recovery which will HAVE TO PETER OUT. It is not sustainable and the policy of pumping up the housing market as an alternative to real policies will come undone. Imports will increase for a while and the balance of payments will suffer because we are not really paying our way in the world. The 'help to buy scheme' was called 'moronic' by the head of Societe General - and no wonder.

Worth having a look at this Britain's Unbalanced recovery:

Last week I argued that Britain’s ‘recovery’ was being driven by a decline in the household savings rate, that there was no sign of rebalancing and so we should remain cautious.

Peter.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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