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Positive Us Jobs Numbers Add To Rate Rise Speculation

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23199688

The US economy added a net 195,000 new jobs in June, official figures show.

The figure was well above economists' expectations of 165,000. Revisions to data for April and May added a further 70,000 jobs to previous estimates.

The jobless rate remained steady at 7.6% of the workforce, according to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The dollar and US bond yields jumped as markets expectations rose that interest rates will start rising in a year.

The US economy recovering and driving ahead.

But then....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000

As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now).

So in ensuring people have medical care Obama has forced the market to response by employing people part-time and ensuring they still have no health care? Most Americans to move to having 2 jobs to equal full time work and no health care benefits? I'm guessing that health insurance for the low paid is very expensive if you don't have a work subsidy?

Although it's amazing that free market hasn't moved to fill in this void for low cost healthcare in the free market capitalist utopia that is the US.

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Except they weren't positive at all.

Part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000.

And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000

People need to just ignore the hilarious and desperate spinning coming out with these job 'reports'.

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Even as the manufacturing jobs continue to collapse, posting their fourth consecutive monthly drop in June to 11.964 million jobs, minimum wage waiters and bartenders have never been happier. In June Restaurant and Bar employees just hit a new all time high of 10,339,800 workers, increasing by a whopping 51,700 in one month.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/no-manufacturing-jobs-more-waiters-and-bartenders-ever

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I think the slack was taken up by leisure and hospitality. Worryingly under utilisation was up and like the UK it seems people are deserting the jobs market and kind of giving up and going into some kind of limbo.

US recovery is a bit like hours, rather flaky and with a lot of smoke and mirrors involved.

CNBC were crowing yesterday about automobile sales, like ours they are doing rather well but this isn't creating a lot of new jobs. Increasingly Mexico is the hub for car assembly.

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I think the slack was taken up by leisure and hospitality. Worryingly under utilisation was up and like the UK it seems people are deserting the jobs market and kind of giving up and going into some kind of limbo.

US recovery is a bit like hours, rather flaky and with a lot of smoke and mirrors involved.

CNBC were crowing yesterday about automobile sales, like ours they are doing rather well but this isn't creating a lot of new jobs. Increasingly Mexico is the hub for car assembly.

There are some signs of increase though in other areas.

Shale boom is producing lots of opportunities for increased economic activity. In the UK we don't have anything to match that yet.

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CNBC were crowing yesterday about automobile sales, like ours they are doing rather well but this isn't creating a lot of new jobs. Increasingly Mexico is the hub for car assembly.

Even if it was the sole place, this wouldn't be devoid of impact for the US economy; if there are more paid (semi-)skilled jobs in Mexico, that'll push towards reducing the burden on the oversupply of cheap labour in the US market, as more central americans stop there rather than continuing north. Everything has an impact on everywhere these days!

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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/07/05/only-47-americans-have-full-time-jobThe release of the June Jobs' Report Friday was something of a relief for the markets. The Labor Department reported that the economy gained 195,000 jobs in June, which beat economists' expectations. The Department also reported that the economy gained 70,000 more jobs in April and May than it originally estimated. The report, however, also provides clear evidence that the the nation is splitting into two; only 47% of Americans have a full-time job and those who don't are finding it increasingly out of reach.

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There are some signs of increase though in other areas.

Shale boom is producing lots of opportunities for increased economic activity. In the UK we don't have anything to match that yet.

The US was probably growing at its new natural, post bubble trend rate around the middle of last year, say 1.75% (Americans are still carrying a LOT of debt by historical standards). Full-time job growth was certainly higher then than it has been subsequently. Bernanke's QEternity has simply pushed a ton of cash into the US economy that it hasn't been able to absorb productively resulting in new bubbles and super-bubbles forming in housing and stocks. Meanwhile growth in the real economy has been so tepid that it's barely kept pace with the increasing population.

One positive, however, has been the prodigious investment opportunities available to the fledgling shale industry, as you say. But even here there's a substantial negative: QE driven commodity speculation is keeping oil and gas prices at record or near-record highs worldwide.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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