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Cable Very Perky This Morning

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Cable has been very perky this morning reversing its recent bear run (for the moment).

Services PMI Up 56.9 from 54.9

MEW up to 8.8BN from 8.3BN

http://www.forexfact...hp#detail=45832

Quite depressing for HPC'ers! :blink:

May have to change from Bear to Bull.

Edited by Secure Tenant

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Cable has been very perky this morning reversing its recent bear run (for the moment).

Services PMI Up 56.9 from 54.9

MEW up to 8.8BN from 8.3BN

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php#detail=45832

Quite depressing for HPC'ers! :blink:

The topsy-turvey world of the rabbit hole means this is bad for Carney for those of us who think he wants to print though. Maybe he'll do it anyway.

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The topsy-turvey world of the rabbit hole means this is bad for Carney for those of us who think he wants to print though. Maybe he'll do it anyway.

Not quite as simple as that though. You would think that QE would depress a currency but just the thought of the Fed removing the punch bowl weakened USD.

Some weakening of the USD this morning as EURUSD has come out in sympathy with cable and USDJPY has fallen but the markets considered this mornings news as good.

You have to suspend belief and put aside the HPC hat with regard to the markets. We all might think its a turd but the markets don't agree!

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Not quite as simple as that though. You would think that QE would depress a currency but just the thought of the Fed removing the punch bowl weakened USD.

Some weakening of the USD this morning as EURUSD has come out in sympathy with cable and USDJPY has fallen but the markets considered this mornings news as good.

You have to suspend belief and put aside the HPC hat with regard to the markets. We all might think its a turd but the markets don't agree!

Net lending figs from the BoE are at slight odds with the BBA, no doubt due to Nationwide, but still we have very weak growth, lower than 1993 in nominal terms on a monthly basis, and the last 4 quarters of complete data Q2 2012 to Q1 2013 inclusive, represent 4 of the 5 lowest quarters on records which stretch back to 1987 (the lowest being Q4 2010). Depending upon what happens in June to complete the 2013 Q3 figs, that run could continue. Data:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxSSxSCxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=1963&TD=3&TM=Jul&TY=2013&VFD=Y&html.x=18&html.y=20&CSVF=TT&C=ZD&C=28K&Filter=N

PS I think you've got your MEW numbers upside down, a negative means an injection of equity, which is what might be expected(edit- although the BoE have pointed out before that this is a feature of low transaction numbers and not necessarily about homeowners making an effort to pay off debt). Edit 2, note that the MEW numbers are for Q1 2013, not Q2 as with the credit conditions survey:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxSSxSCxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=1963&TD=3&TM=Jul&TY=2013&VFD=Y&html.x=14&html.y=18&CSVF=TT&C=ED3&Filter=N

P.S. Here's the credit conditions survey for Q2 2013:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/creditconditionssurvey130703.pdf

Edited by cheeznbreed

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PS I think you've got your MEW numbers upside down, a negative means an injection of equity, which is what might be expected(edit- although the BoE have pointed out before that this is a feature of low transaction numbers and not necessarily about homeowners making an effort to pay off debt)

Easier to see the numbers change through the peak:

http://www.bankofeng...&C=ED3&Filter=N

P.S. Here's the credit conditions survey for Q2 2013:

http://www.bankofeng...urvey130703.pdf

Ah yes right I did. MEW down, equity up.

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Not quite as simple as that though. You would think that QE would depress a currency but just the thought of the Fed removing the punch bowl weakened USD.

Some weakening of the USD this morning as EURUSD has come out in sympathy with cable and USDJPY has fallen but the markets considered this mornings news as good.

You have to suspend belief and put aside the HPC hat with regard to the markets. We all might think its a turd but the markets don't agree!

Taper tantrums. The Fed is pumping $115bn a month into the dealer accounts. Policy has never been looser. Debt has never been more out of control. The markets want to correct these monstrous iniquities but are being prevented from doing so by the Krugmanite goons. Eventually the market will prevail.

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Here's a big piece of spin from the Telegraph, the conflation of lending and availibility:

Banks report sharp rise in mortgage lending - BoE

Banks reported a sharp rise in mortgage lending in the second quarter and predict a further rise over the next three months, a Bank of England survey showed on Wednesday.

The quarterly Credit Conditions Survey said the rise mortgage lending had been helped by lower borrowing costs on the back of the government's Funding for Lending Scheme and improved consumer sentiment.

The FLS was launched last year as a way to get more credit flowing into the economy. So far, the scheme has had more of an impact on lending for mortgages than on loans for companies..

.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10156724/Banks-report-sharp-rise-in-mortgage-lending-BoE.html

Just total B.S.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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Here's a big piece of spin from the Telegraph, the conflation of lending and availibility:

Just total B.S.

No prizes for guessing how the BBC (or for that matter, the Daily Express) will report it though!

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No prizes for guessing how the BBC (or for that matter, the Daily Express) will report it though!

Indeed. The MEW figs will also be touted as evidence of hard-pressed families diligently deleveraging, rather than the reality about transaction levels:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/qb110205.pdf

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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